Rocket Mortgage Classic
Remember that tough course a couple of weeks ago? Los Angeles Country Club? Well, welcome to week #2 of defenseless courses. TPC River Highlands and the Detroit Golf Club do not cause any of these players to have increased stress levels. In fact, DGC may be even less of a concern with its relatively wide fairways, short rough and lack of hazards. In the four years this course has hosted the Rocket Mortgage, the highest winning score was (-18) – and that was the first year the course was used an new to the Tour.
The field is nowhere close to what it was last week but, honestly, it’s not horrible. The worst thing is that, once you get past the top tier, the pricing is not as favorable. I mean, Ludvig Aberg was $7,400 last week. He’s $8,700 this week. Keegan was under $8K last week. This week, he’s $9,200.
Anyway, this week we will like guys that can pound it, since there is no penalty for inaccuracy, and guys that can score.
Highlights: Detroit Golf Club
- Par 72 – 7,300 yards
- Wide Fairways
- Short Rough
- Greens are POA with a little Bentgrass mixed in
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Birdie or Better % (BOB%)
This week’s mix: 50% – 50%
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)-Weighted Stats noted Above
| Tony Finau | $10,900 |
| Max Homa | $10,200 |
| Tom Kim | $ 9,800 |
| Sungjae Im | $ 9,400 |
| Collin Morikawa | $10,600 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $ 9,600 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,400 |
| Keegan Bradley | $ 9,200 |
| Tom Hoge | $ 8,400 |
Unlike last week, we aren’t seeing a lot of guys outside of the Top Tier ($9K +) in this statistical analysis. I don’t think that has as much to do with the names as it does field quality and ALL, or essentially all, of the players in the best current form happen to also be the most identifiable names.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History: Tony Finau ($10,900) – Only because he won last year.
Tom Kim ($9,800) – One attempt and a 7th place finish.
Max Homa ($10,200) – He’s made the cut each time he’s played here, but his best finish was T24. Now, up until the last couple of weeks, I’d be on board, but I’m leery now with two missed cuts in a row. His Friday round last week showed signs of life and maybe he needs an easy course to right the ship.
Gut/My Favorites: Justin Thomas ($10,000) – I am starting to get the feeling that JT may have corrected what was wrong after watching last week. Yes, it was an easy course, but so is DGC. I would definitely take him over Homa and Morikawa this week if I’m taking a five-figure player.
Tom Kim ($9,800) – Other than a bad round on Saturday last week, his play in the last two tournaments looks like the Tom Kim we expect.
Rickie Fowler ($10,400) – My guess is that he will be VERY popular this week. If you are playing Cash Games, I’d stick with him. If you’re playing GPPs, use him if you like but realize you won’t be gaining on the field if he plays well. That’s mainly why I like JT and Tom a little more – and they’re cheaper.
$7,500 to $8,900
You will have to go here of course. The choices aren’t as plentiful, but you have options!
- Stephen Jaeger ($8,900)** – A little pricey for the “Jaeger-Bomb” but he’s made 7 straight cuts and that’s better form than a lot of guys here.
- Ludvig Aberg ($8,700)** – he still has a lot to prove on Tour, but two Top 25s isn’t anything to sneeze at.
- Austin Eckroat ($8,000) – He’s been able to score on easy courses and has also made 7 straight cuts. Did I say “easy courses”?
- Aaron Rai ($7,800) – This is an easy course – damn, I have to quit repeating myself! He’s struggled this year, but he’s been T24-T3-Cut-T12 in the last four weeks.
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,700) & Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700) – JUST KIDDING!! However, at some point, I need to follow my own advice and have a short memory when it comes to these guys letting me down. I’m not playing them this week but don’t be surprised if they come out of their funks.
$7,000 to $7,400
Yes, if you have to, you have options:
- Doug Ghim ($7,400)** – I’m not one to recommend Ghim on a regular basis, but sometimes, the field just dictates you go against your norm. Also, the fact that he’s gone T15-T12-T19-T27 in his last four events makes me put the antacid away to pick him.
- Chez Reavie ($7,200)** – I’ve always felt that Chez is a “streaky boy” when it comes to good finishes and making cuts. You know, like play Jose Abreu when he’s on a heater! Reavie is on a heater and this course doesn’t have enough water on it to cool him off!
- Carson Young ($7,000) – NO, not Cameron! However, he’s been playing just as well or better. He’s made 6 of 8 cuts since April began and his worst finish in T43 in the made cuts. 69-66-65-65 last week is a promising sign for this week as well!
- Harry Hall ($7,100) – Purely a “looking for some good current form” play in a weak field week!
- Kevin Yu ($7,000) – Sub 70 in three of his four rounds last week and DGC is easier! He averaged close to 5 birdies per round so that should also help.
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone”… maybe –
- Sam Bennett ($6,900) – Great price for a solid player!
- Andrew Novak ($6,900) – He let me down last week. He had a bad second round and missed the cut. I’ll forgive that for this week, but, damnit!, don’t do it again!
- Callum Tarren ($6,900) – made 3 of his last 4 cuts and a Top 20 here last year.
- Zac Blair ($6,700) – Only as a last resort and only because of last week’s finish.
LONGSHOT(S)
Gordon Sargent ($7,500)
Did I say bombers can play well here? Hello Gordon! This 20-year old can put it past the likes of Rory and JT. He simply needs to get some time playing under the pressure of the PGA Tour in order to get his footing. Where better than an easy scoring course that doesn’t punish a guy if he hits it to Lake Michigan but misses a little right or left.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!