The U. S. Open
Major #3!
Back to the West Coast so for those of us on the East Coast, we get the advantage of a little bit later lineup lock – by that I mean we don’t have to get up so early to make sure someone didn’t withdraw.
Much like last week, this will be a very tough week to get 6/6 through to the weekend. We have 156 golfers in this event. Now, many of these are qualifiers and have very limited chances to make it through to the weekend, but we also have the Michael Block potential! Listen, you have to be a good/great player to qualify. This isn’t shooting (-6) at your local muni and pretending that you can contend or, at least, not embarrass yourself in front of thousands of people. I’ve shot (-6) twice in my life (of course I was in my early 30s) and I would be hitting driver on most of the Par 3s here and hoping to get up and down. The same could probably be said about the Par 4s. Just insert a hybrid, 5-wood, mid or long iron in there for the second shot.
In the past, 5/6 have won some GPPs – depending on the size of course – when the fields are this large and talented. The pricing for Majors also makes it look like you can’t lose when you see the lineup you get. But, as I’ve said in many weeks like this, on Friday night you will be saying:
“What the (insert your favorite expletive here) was (insert your “sure thing” here) doing on the back nine??”
We have a nice course for this week. It’s nice when, sometimes, the course history isn’t there to play tricks on your mind. I know I preach that a good course fit can get a player right, but most times, you aren’t in the U. S. Open to “get right”. Los Angeles Country Club (LACC) hosted the Walker Cup in 2017 but I’m sure the set up will be a little tougher this week. The key to that little factoid is simply that Doug Ghim, Maverick McNealy, Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler competed in that event.
Another little factoid is that LACC and Riviera were designed by George C. Thomas. Does that mean anything? It can. Guys successful at Riviera may feel comfortable at LACC because some simply like the “lines” that a certain architect gives them. Still, I’m not putting much weight in that.
Success in the U. S. Open is usually accomplished by guys that can play difficult courses. You know, Brooks, Scottie, Collin, Rory, Hideki and Rahm to name the obvious. Who struggles – at least historically? Tyrrell Hatton for one. But, given his recent form, I’m not as worried about that. Jon Rahm has seemed to conquer his anger issues – at least for the most part. Tyrrell? Maybe. But, course setups like this will test that.
Highlights: Los Angeles Country Club
- Par 70 – 7,421 yards
- Par 3 Yardages: 228 yds (#4), 284 yds (#7), 171 yds (#9), 290 yds (#11) and 124 yds (#15). Not sure where #15 came from but they are talking about it playing as short as 97 yards – but I think the pin placement is on a postage stamp.
- Fairways are wide and rough looked awfully punishing around the greens but they say the fairway rough wouldn’t be too long.
- Bentgrass greens where most in California are POA
- Elevated tees so some holes won’t play as long as listed but it’s still long.
- Hole #6 is a risk-reward drivable Par 4. But, from the looks of it on the Golf Channel, don’t miss long or short left. It may become a Par 7.
- Par 4s are a bitch – some over 500 yards.
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Shots Gained Around-the-Green (SG: ATG)
- Shots Gained Approach (Specifically 175 – 200+ yards)
Using the tool that I subscribe to, I’m going to put 40% on T2G, 20% on ATG and 40% on SG: APP (175-200+). I’m going to spread the Approach weighting between the yardages noted above because most approaches will be short irons – and, yes, for these guys, 175 yards can be a short iron!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)-Weighted Stats noted Above
| Rory McIlroy | $ 9,900 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $11,400 |
| Mito Pereira | $ 7,200 |
| Jon Rahm | $11,100 |
| Tony Finau | $ 8,800 |
| Brooks Koepka | $10,800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $ 8,600 |
| Justin Rose | $ 7,700 |
| Collin Morikawa | $ 9,300 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $10,300 |
As you see, pricing can make 2 or 3 guys at $9K+ a viable option. I mean, shit, why not Mito Pereira ($7,200) and Justin Rose ($7,700) to start?
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History: Sorry! Nothing to see here!
Gut/My Favorites:
Scottie Scheffler ($11,400) – No one is playing like Scottie right now! In his last 7 events he’s been Top 10 in 6 of them and the 7th was a T11. If ever a price was justified, it’s now. Fortunately, you can make a lineup EASILY with him and at least one other $9K + player because of the “Major Pricing” set up..
Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) – I’m not someone who subscribes to the “Patrick Can’tPlay” protestors line of thinking out there. I don’t care if he doesn’t win most of the time. He can play tough courses and his current form is T30-T9-T21-T4-3rd-T14-T9.
Brooks Koepka ($10,800) – Did I say something about guys that can play tough courses? Hello LACC! Let me introduce you to the guys that “doesn’t give a shit” how mean you look at him!
Rory McIlroy ($9,900) & Xander Schauffele ($9,600) – I’m listing these two together for a few reasons: (1) They have similar recent U. S. Open history, (2) they have similar current form and (3) feel free to play them together and sleep like a baby. Rory’s only downside lately is finishing on Sundays.
Homa ($9,400), Hovland ($10,000) and Rahm ($11,100) are also viable choices here. Honestly, there really isn’t a guy above $9K that I am going to steer you away from. It all depends on what you want to spend on the other 3, 4 or 5 guys you want to play.
$7,500 to $8,900
Really, you could make a balanced lineup out of this group ($8,333 average per golfer) and not feel like your setting your entry fee on fire! Because there are so many options here, I’m breaking this into Sub-Tiers ($8K & OVER and Under $8K).
$8,000 – $8,900
- Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900)** – I’m going against the grain! Tyrrell has been in 6 U. S. Opens and made the cut just as many times as he’s missed it. Still, he’s made his last 7 cuts with 6 of those being Top 20s (including 3 Top 5s!)!! Yes, a bad Thursday round could result in the USGS thinking the San Andreas Fault has ruptured, but I’m trusting his current form continues.
- Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)** – His U. S. Open history is excellent. He’s made 9 of 10 cuts in the last 10 years with 6 of those being Top 25s (3 Top 10s). He hasn’t won this year but he’s been consistently in the Top 30.
- Dustin Johnson ($8,300) – Hideki at $300 less without the current form. He’s been doing fine on the LIV Tour making every cut this season, but he was T55 at the PGA and T48 at the Masters. Not normally what you see out of DJ in Majors.
- Sam Burns ($8,200) – I know he isn’t playing lights out like the streaks he’s gone through in the past, but anytime I can get him below the “average per golfer” price, I’m in.
UNDER $8,000
- Tommy Fleetwood ($7,900)** – I really thought he had it last week. I’ll admit, I was hoping he would win, but since he didn’t, it’s a confidence builder going into this week.
- Justin Rose ($7,700)** – He is playing so well right now that this price is a steal! He contended last week just like I thought he would. His last few years have been shaky, but he is in incredible form and his experience alone is worth this price!
- Bryson DeChambeau ($7,600) – I have never been a fan of Bryson! But, that should never influence how you play DFS. This is a course that bombers can gain an advantage on and, well, “Bryson go Boom”! He seems to be healthy again and made a great showing at the PGA. I think he putts well too and that’s something you always need at Majors.
- Adam Scott, Patrick Reed & Rickie Fowler ($7,500) – I’m listing all three because they are the same price and I think are interchangeable. In fact, their current forms are very similar as well. Reed may be the best putter right now but Rickie is returning to his past form as an outstanding putter.
$7,000 to $7,400
Yes, you CAN go here too!
- Mito Pereira ($7,200)** – He doesn’t have the best history at the U. S. Open – he’s 0 for 2. He performed well at the PGA and has been playing very well on LIV. Although I’m not purely a stats guy, he scores very well in the “key stats” area this week as noted above.
- Ryan Fox ($7,100) – He’s a bomber whose short game is improved. He has two Top 25s in his last three (including the PGA) and recently became a new father (again or for the first time I’m not sure. I’m not a stalker!) so we can play the “ending on Father’s Day” narrative for a really cheap price!
- Eric Cole ($7,000)** – I have a really good feeling about this guy. 5 of last 7 cuts made with all of them Top 25. This includes a T15 at the PGA.
- Harris English ($7,200) – Good U. S. Open history. Good current form. $7,200. Worth the risk!
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone”… maybe –
- Matt Kuchar ($6,900)
- Adam Hadwin ($6,900) – assuming he survived the form tackle by Canadian Open security when they mistook him for a fan on the green trying to celebrate with Nick Taylor.
- Thomas Pieters ($6,800) – Bomber and a good putter! If you need a cheap golfer that very few will jump on because they don’t know who he is, give TP a try. Everyone needs TP!
- Adrian Meronk ($6,700) – Yes, I’m DONE with Nicolai Hojgaard! But, I’m giving Adrian another chance…especially at this price!
LONGSHOT(S)
Tom Kim ($7,800)
He hasn’t been playing Tom Kim golf lately. However, he has the patience and the game to survive a difficult course. I’m writing off the last two missed cuts and hope he turns it around this week.
Romain Langasque ($6,600)
T34 the only time he’s played in the U. S. Open. In his last 6 events: T10-T16-2nd-T21-T45-T9! Now, I don’t expect a Top 5 or even a Top 10. But, I’ll take a Top 20 for this price.
LONG-LONGSHOT!
Sam Bennett ($6,500) – T16 at the Masters and T20 at the Canadian Open. 63rd at The Memorial, but this newcomer should go into this week with confidence and very little, if any, expectations! That can result in a great performance!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!