3M Open
We are now in he “blah” season of golf. The time between the last Major and the beginning of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Unless a guy isn’t in the To 70 already, you may see more of him in the next few weeks than others. If a guy’s game isn’t in form (Justin Thomas), you may see more of him. We likely won’t see a stacked field for a while now. But, that doesn’t mean we can’t win money by being ahead of the game.
Highlights: TPC Twin Cities
- Par 71 – 7,468 yards
- Wide fairways
- Slow Bentgrass Greens
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Off-the-Tee (SG: APP)
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Driving Distance (DD)
- Birdie-or-Better % (BOB%)
This week’s mix: 20% – 30% – 20% – 30% respectively
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)-Weighted Stats noted Above
| Sungjae Im | $10,300 |
| Cameron Young | $10,900 |
| Emliano Grillo | $ 9,700 |
| Tony Finau | $10,600 |
| Cameron Davis | $ 9,000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | $ 9,400 |
| Gary Woodland | $ 9,200 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $ 8,500 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $ 7,900 |
Of course, all the higher-priced guys score well here.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History:
- Tony Finau ($10,600) – Top 30 every time with a Win and a T3.
- Emiliano Grillo ($9,700) – T2 – MC- T3
- Sungjae Im ($10,300) – T2 last year and T15 in 2019
Gut/My Favorites:
- Cameron Young ($10,900) – No course history but I think he keeps playing well – especially in a depleted field. Don’t like the price though!
- Sepp Straka ($9,500) – Sepp is rounding into form. He’s streaky but I like his type of player in this type of tournament.
- Stephen Jaeger ($9,100) – 9 straight cuts for the “Jaeger-bomb”!
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,400) – this guy has a ton of talent.
$7,500 to $8,900
This will be a week where it will be difficult to go stars-and-scrubs without emphasizing the “scrubs” part of it and praying for a made cut. Staying in the next two tiers and adding a low-end $9K guy may be a great approach.
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,900)** – I like this guy and I like his price. Started the year on fire and then struggled a bit. I think he’s getting comfortable.
- Vincent Norrman ($8,100)** – 3 Top 25s in a row including a Win.
- Lucas Glover ($8,200) – I really didn’t realize how well Lucas was playing until I looked back because his price fit the amount I had left in a lineup. Last three: 5th-T6-T4! He’s another player that tends to play better in weaker fields.
- J. T. Poston ($8,400) – Lucas Glover for $200 more.
- Adam Hadwin ($8,900) – I don’t like the price because he hasn’t been playing spectacularly, but he does seem to like TPC-Twin Cities (T38-T6-DNP-4th)
$7,000 to $7,400
Yep, we need these guys:
- Garrick Higgo ($7,400)** – He’s volatile and streaky, but one hell of a lefty.
- Chez Reavie ($7,300)** – Made the cut here both times he played and has made eight straight cuts.
- Peter Kuest ($7,400) – Again, new guy with a lot of talent. Depleted fields give solid players like this more confidence. He’s had a T17 and T4 in his last four events and made 3 of 4 cuts in that time.
- M. J. Daffue ($7,100) – Cuts at this price level make the difference. 5 straight!
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone”… –
- Patton Kizzire ($6,700) – Plays well at TPC-Twin Cities! Sucks pretty much everywhere else right now.
- Carson Young ($6,800) – He’s cooled off some but he still has three Top 25s in his last 8 events.
- Erik van Rooyen ($6,600) – he has the potential to excel and was T6 last week at Barracuda. With this field, he’s not a bad play and, if he makes the cut, you’ve already got the value out of him.
LONGSHOT(S)
I’m not even going to try. Just about everyone below $8K is a longshot. However, a high-priced longshot:
Justin Thomas ($9,300)
We all know he’s going to come out of the funk at some point. This could be the type of week that does it. I’M NOT PLAYING HIM AT THIS PRICE, but if you want to be contrarian in the $9K range, JT could do it.
Really never thought I’d use JT and contrarian in the same sentence.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!