Another MNF with two games on it and yes, I am starting to like this format. Give us more of this and less of the Thursday Night garbage games in the future and I’ll be happy. But, I also know that won’t happen.
Tonight we have the 2-0 Eagles and 2-0 Buccaneers along with the 1-1 Rams and the 0-2 Bengals. Unlike last week, this slate is not starved of skill position fantasy gems to debate, so we have a lot more decisions in terms of fades/contrarian options on a two game slate than normal.
EAGLES (-5) at BUCS, (OU: 45)
The Bucs are not a great football team by any stretch, however, we are seeing a classic scenario of lazy analysis for everyone who just blindly assumed they would be a horrific team this year. The shift from Brady to Mayfield isn’t going to make you a 1 win team all of the sudden, there is still talent on defense and some weapons on this lineup that can give the Eagles problems.
RAMS at BENGALS (-2), (OU: 43.5)
In a world where Burrow was perfectly healthy and the Bengals were tuned in I would say we are going to have ourselves an old fashioned shootout here. But alas, none of that is going to happen tonight.
Cincinnati being 0-2 is one thing I am not shocked by, they lost both safeties in the off-season and obviously had a rough training camp with Burrow going down and throwing everything off. Now they have to deal with Aaron Donald up front and I would expect a heavy dose of Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd as a safety valve in the short passing game for QB Jake Browning. Avoiding Mixon in DFS is going to be near impossible tonight, but this is a DEEP RB slate so if you are only building 2 RB into your lineup, he might be the one you take a gamble on fading & I would do that with Rams Defense/ST.
Figuring out the Rams wins the slate. Stafford looks healthy and refreshed & with a solid running game (for now), he is able to connect on big plays when they need them. This is another spot where Nacua receives the Kupp volume in the system, but we should like Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee here as well
GAME PICKS
Bucs pull off the upset and win outright, 23-20.
Rams push the Bengals further down and win behind another masterful Stafford performance, 31-16
Parlay: Bucs +5, Rams ML
Total Leans: Eagles/Bucs UNDER, Rams/Bengals OVER
DFS CORE PICKS
QUARTERBACK – Matthew Stafford
Alternate Pick: Baker Mayfield
There is almost very little logical reason to consider Jake Browning since both Mayfield and Stafford are very close in price. Baker comes in ranked fairly well today, largely in part to the Bucs rushing game having zero upside vs Philadelphia on paper & so I get him as a dart over Stafford but of all the options tonight, Matt Stafford is playing the best. I’ll project Hurts to throw 2 TD tonight, one to Gainwell or Goedert and the other to AJ Brown.
RUNNING BACK – Joe Mixon
Alternate Picks: Kenneth Gainwell, Kyren Williams
If Mixon doesn’t see an increase in touches tonight then fire everyone on the Bengals immediately. If we named stat outcomes like they name drinks then there would be one called “The Joe Mixon”, 75 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards and a touchdown. Give us the Joe Mixon tonight.
WIDE RECEIVER – Tutu Atwell
Whole world will go on Nacua tonight and I get that he is the new darling child while Kupp has been out. Atwell has been consistent himself with 8+ targets in both games & as a reminder he has open field talent that is better than Nacua, which I think will result in a big play touchdown here tonight. Both are good, but Atwell is the must own.
Alternate Picks: Puka Nacua, Chris Godwin, A.J. Brown, Tyler Boyd
TE Rankings
- Dallas Goedert
- Tyler Higbee
- Drew Sample
D/ST Rankings
- Rams
- Eagles
- Buccaneers