After last weeks high scoring and very chalk productive outburst we have a cheap $9.99 buffet type slate today. What I mean by that is we have lots of good players/teams who are in tough match-ups and a lot of bad players/teams who are in good match-ups.
- Exhibit A: Broncos vs Bears.
- Exhibit B: Dolphins vs Bills.
- Exhibit C: Kyle Pitts in London … but thankfully this is already starting this morning so we don’t have to deal with his one good game a year working out in DFS because he sucks…
WEATHER
- Nothing
LATE INJURY NEWS
- Saints QB Derek Carr is expected to start today. They have indicated his injury is a pain management issue, so one should logically assume he just throws it less or throws it shorter and look who is back and underpriced my friends. Alvin Kamara…. You can see where this article is going, can’t you?
- The Raiders are starting rookie QB Aidan O’Connell vs the Chargers today. And yes, he is dirt cheap min price on both sites
I really feel like I could make a case for 7-10 Quarterback options, but I am not someone who has to worry about going on the radio tomorrow to boast my picks as being fantastic, so we’ll stick with the usual 3 best options here and be content.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Nobody. This is a classic, “QB DOES NOT MATTER” slate. Ownership is going to be more spread out than you think and just don’t pick a QB that costs too much and gets you a giant goose egg. Getting the right/different RB/WR matters way more than QB does this week.
SO, THE GUYS I LIKE and will use…
AIDAN OCONNELL (DK: $4000, FD: $6000) … Much better for the floor min price on DraftKings. This is not a bad Quarterback folks, even though he is a rookie, O’Connell to me is someone who will have a nice long career in the NFL as a reliable back-up and should complete a high % of passes today. He loved the short bubble screens in college and I would imagine he’ll try to pepper Davante Adams a ton today which makes Adams an interesting WR1 option here too. I see some merrit to just locking in some studs at RB/WR this week, so the $4k price is EXTREMELY tempting given that I believe he’ll throw for 250+ yards and 1-2 scores.
MATTHEW STAFFORD (DK: $5700, FD: $6600) … Tell me Matt Stafford in a dome, in the midwest at 1pm doesn’t come off as a 350 yards, 3 TD game? His only road block could be the play calling rushing the ball in close to the goal line. The Rams opted to go home after their game in Cincinnati rather than stay in the mid-west, which is unfortunate because they would have been a lock 28-3 lead at the half here.
RYAN TANNEHILL (DK: $5000, FD: $6300) … The Titans offense through three weeks has been …. horrific? It’s been bad for sure and coming off a 3 point outing last week I don’t think a single person in the world is going to be confident here, not even the ghost of Steve McNair (RIP). But we have a Bengals defense which still has issues on the back-end and is coming off a short week with their MNF win last week. The game flow will warrant high passing volume from both teams & we’re due for that Tannehill rushing TD game here as well. Another cheap option on a week where I just don’t feel like paying up for Quarterback. I don’t hate Burrow in the same game on the other side but I do still fear his leg injury slightly.
OTHER QB NOTES
- Justin Fields is drawing positive ratings & projections because of how bad Denver’s defense has been, especially against the run. But where Denver has been MURDERED is in the trenches and from a size standpoint. They have speed on defense and they can contain a QB running on them, they cannot shed blocks and defend against a good OL, so I would expect the Bears RB to do more than Fields on the ground.
- Hurts claims he was sick on Monday night, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for a terrible passing game. He should have a stronger outing today but I’ve locked in on cheaper QB so I won’t go there. Same true for Josh Allen & Justin Herbert.
This is the toughest area to swim in this week.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
ALVIN KAMARA (DK: $6100, FD: $6500) … Two factors have really gone in Kamara’s favor from a DFS perspective this week. Number one is his price at $6100 on DraftKings where he should benefit a ton with the full PPR if he gets a nice receptions matchup. And number two, is that he is going to have a good receptions matchup with Carr’s shoulder injury and Tampa’s ability to get pressure on the Saints OL in the passing game. I would expect him to be a full go on usage, do not listen to anyone saying he is ‘limited’ after being out for 3 weeks, that is fucking nonsense. He’ll catch 5+ passes, have 70+ total yards from scrimmage and he also needs just 1 TD to tie #12 for the most touchdowns in team history.
Do the math and play Kamara over Alexander Mattison or Kyren Williams…
DERRICK HENRY (DK: $7000, FD: $8000) … I’m putting my $$ on the Bengals/Titans game going over & if the Titans score 20 today and it isn’t Tannehill then you for sure know it’s D-Henry going over 120 and 2 TD.
Play Henry over Pollard
ALSO LIKE …
- Jerome Ford (DK: $5400, $6400) … Whole world was on Ford going into a bad matchup vs TEN and now they are back off him? Give me that Browns OL any day of the week, especially with a limited/banged up Watson.
- Dameon Pierce (DK: $5100, FD: $6300)
- Joshua Kelley (DK: $5300, FD: $6000) … No, I don’t feel great about it. But the Raiders rush defense isn’t great either.
Now we get to the really good stuff this week..
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
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DEVONTA SMITH (DK: $7500, FD: $7800) … If you want to hear me cursing up a storm this week it might be here if this winds up being an A.J. Brown 2 TD game. Brown as the first thought that jumped out at me, but the more I thought about it, the more I switched over to DeVonta Smith. Either way, Hurts throws for 3 TD this week and 2 of them are going to one of his stud options with the third going to Goedert. You can say Brown was upset about targets, but Smith having a combined 10 targets the last two weeks is not going to trend forward this week. He should smash the Washington secondary
JAMARR CHASE (DK: $7800, FD: $8200) … A funnel defense to the pass & probably too much zone defense for Chase to not settle in and catch 10 passes for a buck 150.
DAVANTE ADAMS (DK: $8100, FD: $8000) … Targets & dominance. Really not much more to say here. He’s going to continue to dominate in the volume department and should justify this high price tag once again. I won’t lead with him in lineups but with the value at QB & RB I don’t mind going here at all.
THE VALUE / MID RANGE
DeANDRE HOPKINS (DK: $5800, FD: $6300) … A Tannehill-Henry-Hopkins stack is not as dumb as it sounds. Good value with RT/Nuk and the floor with Henry should be fine as well.
TUTU ATWELL (DK: $5500, FD: $6300) … Atwells emergence is not getting enough hype. He is a better WR than Puka Nacua and we’re seeing the talent of him being able to get separation and convert inside the red zone emerge. He’ll score again this week.
TANK DELL (DK: $4600, FD: $6200) … I do not understand the pricing here on him (or Nico to be honest). Just too cheap.
TYLER BOYD (DK: $4100, FD: $5600)
SUB $4K VALUE
- Jonathan Mingo
- Alec Pierce
If you get a big game from your TE today then be glad. It’s just a very basic/generic slate with no Kelce out there to eat up ownership and lots of ‘meh’ type spots.
PAT FRIERMUTH (DK: $3400, FD: $5500) … I will go with the Muth here as the best option among the bunch. I certainly do not expect Houston’s defense to lock down Pittsburgh entirely, but I also sure as hell do not trust Pickett vertically or Najee Harris. Houston has long been a sneaky spot to use TE against, no matter what their defensive scheme is and this year is proving to be that way as well as they’re 29th in receptions allowed to TE.
ALSO DONT MIND …
- TYLER HIGBEE (DK: $4200, FD: $5100)
- GEORGE KITTLE (DK: $5100, FD: $6300)
- LOGAN THOMAS (DK: $3100, FD: $5000)
- Cleveland Browns
- New Orleans Saints
- Dallas Cowboys
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player(s): JaMarr Chase, Derrick Henry
Favorite Core Builds:
- QB – Aidan O’Connell
- RB – Alvin Kamara
- WR – JaMarr Chase
- TE – Pat Friermuth
Favorite Pay Up Spots
- WR
Game Stacks
- Bengals/Titans
- Rams/Colts
- Commanders/Eagles
Favorite Bets
- Browns -2.5
- Dolphins +3
- Broncos +3.5
- Commanders/Eagles OVER 43
- Bengals/Titans OVER 41
Upset Calls
- Dolphins … Hey, they are a dog.
- Texans
- Titans
- Panthers
WINNERS OF THE WEEK
Dolphins, Panthers, Broncos, Browns, Texans, Rams, Saints, Eagles, TItans, Chargers, Cowboys, 49ers, Chiefs