WEATHER
- Nothing significant.
LATE INJURY NEWS
- Tee Higgins, Jahmyr Gibbs both OUT
- Cooper Kupp IN, Jonathan Taylor … IN
- Javonte Williams, Saquon Barkley GTD
- The Saints team plane did not crash on their way to New England. The Patriots team hotel did not burn down. This game is expected to play, with TV broadcasts, commercial breaks, fans in attendance and absolutely, positively, zero offensive appetite…..
THE AMBUSH PLAY
ZACH WILSON (DK: $4900, FD: $6300) … No altitude issues for Wilson, or at least I would hope not. QB’s have destroyed the Broncos this season and the Jets offensive line should give Wilson plenty of time to work through the air as he is settling into being the full time QB once again. Sub 5k with some good high end options elsewhere at RB/WR/TE and no reason to pay up at QB this week has me diving into the Wilson experience. No, not the Russell one… The cougar lovin one…
OTHERS I LIKE
JOE BURROW (DK: $6200, FD: $7000) … This is slightly more of me leaning into the correlation of the fact that he is going to throw JaMarr Chase the ball every single time he can, and thus when Chase breaks off for 2 (or 3) touchdowns today, I wouldn’t mind having those 200+ yards and multiple TD’s from the QB either. But we know Burrow isn’t going to do anything of value on the ground and there’s a chance Mixon gets a 1 yard rushing TD here too, so I’m not expecting some 30 spot from Joey B.
OTHER QB NOTES
- Patrick Mahomes will have that 5 TD game soon, I don’t think its this week though after looking at their upcoming schedule.
- Lamar Jackson is standing out at the top of the model today, a lot due to Pittsburgh’s up and down defense, but it’s not an ideal gameflow IMO.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
BIJAN ROBINSON (DK: $7700, FD: $8200) … The Falcons are the latest of teams who played in London and come back without a BYE week. This new recent trend for the NFL is something which could make you assume they are tired but it hasn’t proven that way so I’m ignoring that as any sort of factor.
Desmond Ridder sucks, and I think Arthur Smith knows it now. He’s going to be wise to protect his defense with about 90% rushing calls and the OL/DL matchup for Atlanta should favor them to have success on the ground. Zack Moss and Travis Etienne each went over 4.5 YPC against Houston — Bijan could have a MONSTER game today.
ALSO LIKE …
DAVID MONTGOMERY (DK: $6600, FD: $8500) … Much easier to attack Carolina on the ground & I trust the Lions offensive line to do well in that area. They’re thin today and could see a good attack from Carolina’s offense forcing this game to be a nice back and forth spot. High ownership and good volume for a reliable back like Montgomery is hard to dislike.
JOE MIXON (DK: $6400, FD: $7000) … Bengals score 30+ today, they’ll get 4 TD. The TD are all coming from Mixon and Chase. Great stack spot. Mixon is a favorable pivot off the Achane/Moestert ownership today — who aren’t terrible picks themselves.
ALEXANDER MATTISON (DK: $5700, FD: $6400) … Just LOL the Vikings out of the building if they come out and try to air it out all night against Kansas City. Give Mattison enough volume here, despite Akers, and then mix in Jefferson and Hockenshit when you need too. Be smart Minnesota, you have K.C. in a perfect trap spot before a TNF game.
VALUE …
JALEEL McLAUGHLIN (DK: $5000) … Sean Payton loves McLaughlin and if Javonte is OUT that really opens up some more carries here for fairly cheap. I’d expect Perine to see a boost as well, but McLaughlin is worth chasing as a value play.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
JaMARR CHASE (DK: $7900, FD: $8700) … Next question. My lock button smash play of the year?
GARRETT WILSON (DK: $6000, FD: $7400) … Zach’s guy and I just see him having over 130 yards against the Broncos secondary.
RASHEE RICE (DK: $3600, FD: $5000) … Really like the Chiefs WR in general — I mean, how could we not? The price on Rice is … uh, nice? Hey-yoo, thanks, I’ll be here all week. Obviously plenty of options in the KC passing attack will look good here, Rice is getting the volume that should not be ignored and he really should be around the same prices as Toney, Moore and MVS.
JAYLEN WADDLE (DK: $7500, FD: $6800) … Waddle scores a rushing TD this week to piss off all the Dolphins RB ownership. You can see it coming from a mile away, it’s just hard to love him above the other high end WR (Chase IMO) today because there’s too much volume to spread around and the Giants will either chew up clock or have the Dolphins D/ST do the scoring.
MID RANGE
DeANDRE HOPKINS / MICHAEL PITTMAN … Correlate together or fade both. I don’t see a heavy shootout here in this game but both are going under the radar and in Pittman’s case he should tear up the Titans secondary with receptions while Hopkins finds the end zone.
COURTLAND SUTTON (DK: 54000, FD: $6900)
GEORGE PICKENS (DK: $5200, FD: $6500)
THE VALUE
Rashee Rice is the best value on the board.
- ZACH ERTZ
- TJ HOCKENSON
- TRAVIS KELCE
- JONNU SMITH
- DOLPHINS
- SAINTS
- FALCONS
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player(s): JaMarr Chase
Favorite Core Builds:
Zach Wilson, Bijan Robinson, JaMarr Chase, Garrett Wilson
Favorite Pay Up Spots
JaMarr Chase, Jaylen Waddle
Game Stacks
Bengals/Cardinals
Favorite Bets
Falcons -2.5
Panthers +9
Bengals -3
Eagles/Rams under 50
Vikings ML
Upset Calls
Vikings
WINNERS OF THE WEEK
Falcons, Lions, Titans, Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Bengals, Eagles, Jets, Vikings