From a total breakdown there is a game which is ~10 points higher than everything else on the DraftKings Main slate. That game is the Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State battle in Stillwater and I think it should wind up being a very productive game, but maybe not 10 points higher than everything else.
On the flip side, while I love supporting the Service Academies, we really don’t need Army vs Air Force with a whopping 31.5 total and Air Force favored by 18.5 But hey, someone’s gonna watch it I guess? And yes, there is one player we might consider here…
JAMES MADISON vs GEORGIA ST
The Dukes look to stay undefeated and it will be a tough environment for them at Georgia St, a team who should have plenty of attempts on the ground through Marcus Carroll in an effort to try and keep the JMU passing attack on the sidelines as much as they can. But the Georgia State player I will move into my CORE today is WR Robert Lewis, because in the end, we want points and I expect points. And when that happens, GaSt is gonna have to go through him.
When The Dukes are on offense, McCloud -> Brown and Sarratt is going to be a path to victory for my DFS builds this week. Brown and Sarratt combined for $9800 is great value and worth doing a QB + 2WR stack with a RB run it back on the other side.
- QB: Jordan McCloud (JMU)
- RB: Marcus Carroll (GAST)
- WR: Reggie Brown (JMU), Elijah Sarratt (JMU), Robert Lewis (GAST)
OKLAHOMA vs OKLAHOMA STATE
The “Game of the Day” on the MAIN slate is the Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State battle. Lots of chalk will drive over to two guys in this game. I am going to get up on my throne and be that guy who wants to fade the white hot Ollie Gordon for a WR option on the Oklahoma State offense. I would lean on Brennan Presley the most today but do not object to Leon Johnson and/or Rashod Owens.
The Sooners are gonna lean on Gabriel, we know this, but this game won’t be a 20% higher scoring game than the rest of the field, so buyer beware on automatically just blindly stacking it.
MISSOURI vs GEORGIA
In prior years I would go back to chasing that Georgia loss which feels inevitable at some point here soon, but with Georgia being at home and Missouri being back to pretty good again I don’t think they’ll have an overlook spot today. That said, Mizzou WILL be able to get some offense going because I think the WR depth and the play of Brady Cook will be enough to justify them slightly in DFS, but the primary stack has to be centered around Carson Beck and the Georgia offense.
- QB: Carson Beck (UGA)
- RB: Daijuan Edwards (UGA)
- WR: Ladd McConkley (UGA), Luther Burden (Mizz)
Best Options
I think these are the best CORE options today, although Dillon Gabriel and Jordan Travis alone are not bad options either.
- Jordan McCloud (JMU – $8100) … Love 2 of his WR and so the full passing stack is a very good DFS play. McCloud should combine for 40+ pass and rush attempts if things are going well, his floor is as good as anyone else this week.
- Darren Grainger (Georgia State – $7000) … If going 2 QB over 5 WR this week you can not go wrong doing a game stack of the QB here.
Island Quarterbacks
A couple guys this week who can be used naked and without much else in the same game.
- KJ Jefferson (Arkansas – $6600) … Very discounted price on KJ Jefferson for what he can/should do. The production hasn’t been there this year for a bad Razorbacks team, but I think the rushing potential is good enough vs Florida for him to score the first TD rushing since their first game. Shouldn’t finish with more than 25 points, but at his price you only need 18-21.
- Kyle McCord (Ohio State – $7600) … Expect some Trey Henderson chalk but nobody will have the Ohio State passing game. Nobody is also going to guard Marvin Harrison Jr. either but his price is tough to force in.
Contrarian / Leverage
- Alan Bowman (Oklahoma State – $6200) … Zero rushing potential, but there is potential for him to accumulate 3+ passing touchdowns, which would likely negate Ollie Gordon’s touchdown volume if such.
Our chalk RB this week is Ollie Gordon, and he has been a machine for the Cowboys, is at home and should get the rock a ton. But I trust the Sooner defense and actually expect the Cowboys to have a very good day passing. If the tempo of the game stays up, then yes, Gordon fits just fine. He’s 60% owned likely today, so factor that into your fade decision.
- Jawhar Jordan (Louisville – $6700) … THIS, This is the smash play home RB in the 3:30 window of games today. VT cannot stop the run, Louisville is not gonna stop running Jordan and another 180 yards and 2-3 TD performance is looming here.
- Jonathan Brooks (Texas – $7800) … Good volume and a potential for a 5 YPC day should build up for Brooks to have a rushing touchdown, go over 20 fantasy points and be just fine anchoring RB in your lineups.
- Emmanuel Michel (Air Force – $6400) … Sure, the game tempo sucks, but it’s mostly Air Force dominating on the ground that should work out today.
Chalky RB:
- Ollie Gordon
- TreyVeon Henderson
- Marcus Carroll
It just seems to setup that this week we’re looking at game correlation with our WR and it’s a slate where for sure I would go 4 WR. So you are kinda a dummy in my mind if you do not go WRA and WRB from the same game and then go to another game and just rinse and repeat that model.
CORE GAME COMBO’S
- Reggie Brown (JMU – $5000) and Robert Lewis (Georgia State – $6300) … Price and opportunity in this game. These are the main weapons to back.
- Nic Anderson (OU – $5700) and Brennan Presley (Oklahoma State – $5900) … Fellow OU WR Jalil Farooq was arrested earlier this week but is expected to play. Certainly there could be some risk of discipline with him not starting or limited use, and I dont hate the idea of using him as others shy away either. Anderson is probably the safer pick and should see a good set of volume as I believe Oklahoma will do more damage in the air than on the ground.. Pressley fits in my idea of fading Ollie Gordon, he is arguably one of my favorite under the radar plays even though it’s a popular game.
ONE OFFS
- KeAndre Lambert Smith (Penn State – $6500) … He is the real deal and the Terps pass defense is vulnerable with a 68% pass TD rate and has been vulnerable in B10 play. I like the Terps to cover and maybe pull off an upset here, so KeAndre will need to have a big play or two. Plus, it just feels like if you are a Penn State WR and you are playing Maryland you have to score a 70 yard touchdown reception, no?
- Ladd McConkley (Georgia – $5800)
- Tre Harris (Ole Miss – $6200)
DRAFTKINGS CORE OPTIONS
QB – Jordan McCloud (JMU)
RB – Jawhar Jordan (Louisville)
WR – Reggie Brown (JMU)
WR – Robert Lewis (Georgia State)
BETS
Favorite Bet: Ole Miss -3 (It’s ont a HAMMER type favorite bet, but if you are only betting 1 play, this is the one I start with)
Texas -3.5
Oklahoma State +6
Louisville -10
JMU/Georgia State OVER 53.5
Maryland +8.5
OTHER SLATE THOUGHTS
- Game which could go off but I won’t force in DFS … Texas A&M vs Ole Miss
- Blowout team stacks … Florida St & Georgia