Last week the NFL slate featured a bunch of Island games which were some great contests with potential shootouts and we saw it translate over to the entire slate. This week all of the Island games are crappy and there really isn’t that 4PM “game of the week” game this week — and thus the slate is giving off the vibe of the same type of setup.
So welcome some bad team as your ‘winning stack’ team of the week this week.
Rob Geriak is off from the STACKS article this week, so I am doing some STACKS breakdown in the AMBUSH section at the bottom.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
This is a pay down at Quarterback week, so I will go contrarian given that I don’t see a high ceiling spot from any of the pay down options.
DeShaun Watson (DK: $5400, FD: $7100) … Before you get all excited here, this is not another CJ Stroud type spot, but it is one I believe is going to fly out of nowhere to put up a 20+ spot and at 0% ownership and cheap price. Cleveland’s got a chance to beat up Baltimore in the passing game because Watson should have time from his OL and he should have guys getting open over the middle. It was ugly when Cleveland had to go without Watson in the first meeting, going 28-3 to Baltimore… So, yes, yes, we all know what’s gonna happen here after a 28-3 first game.
OTHER QB OPTIONS
Geno Smith (DK: $5800, FD: $6900) … Geno might be the highest owned QB since he is going up against Washington, coming off a terrible game and back at home. It all makes fine sense, but I cannot get on the Geno bandwagon again this season. So he’s just okay and eventually I’ll just completely write him off. For now though when he’s got 3 solid WR options, a good running game and a spot where the Seahawks are likely to start fast I gotta admit, he’s a top play.
Jared Goff (DK: $6400, FD: $8000) … Too many chances for the RB to vulture Goff and keep him from having a smash spot. But I cannot see the Lions not putting up a 30 spot today, so that path for Goff to get 2 or 3 TD is strong
QB’s to Fade
- Dak Prescott … Meh. Dallas might ‘get right’, but they aren’t putting up a 40 spot on the Giants again. This game will be slower and closer than you think.
- Joe Burrow … There’s no Higgins and a good chance of no Chase. A lot of folks are going to look at some of the cheaper guys for the Bengals and I am just wondering why Joe Mixon isn’t 90% owned here? No Burrow for me this week.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Joe Mixon (DK: $6200, FD: $7700) … Back to back weeks with Mixon finding the endzone, and a game vs a team like Houston should provide us for the true ‘Mixon’ stat line. 75 yards rushing, 20-30 yards receiving and another touchdown.
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Bijan Robinson (DK: $6000, FD: $6600) … So… Like. I like the Fa…. I like…. I be… how do I put this. The Arizona Cardinals are not winning just because James Connor and Kyler Murray are back. Their opponent should thrash them on the ground with the 1-2 punch of Allgier and Bijan, but I’ll hitch my wagon to the more expensive and less used Bijan Robinson, maybe hoping for a home town type narrative? He’s an Arizona kid and the Falcons as a whole should play well out in Arizona putting him a great spot to have multiple red zone touches… Hopefully?
CORE RUNNING BACKS THIS WEEK
Jahmyr Gibbs (DK: $7000, FD: $8200) … If you recall the Jaguars coming into L.A. to upset the Chargers a year ago, I present to you a similar outcome but not an ‘upset’ obviously. The Lions are good, they are great on turf, Goff knows the stadium and Gibbs should be able to slice up the Chargers defense in the passing game. Between him, Montgomery and ASB the Lions are finding a way to post 30 this week.
Tony Pollard (DK: $7300, FD: $7800) … I get the idea that we have a heavy ‘obvious’ win scenario for Dallas to just shred the Giants and all. Could one guy do enough to break the slate and post a 28-30 as chalk? Probably not, so I’ve got a hard time making Pollard a core type pick.
RB’s to Fade
- Rachaad White – Talk about chasing folks
- Christian McCaffrey – Not worth the price. If you want some CMC action just take the anytime touchdown bet.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
Michael Thomas (DK: $4500, FD: $5800) … I was already pumping up the Prison Mike Week 10 game after his 0 FPTS performance a week ago. The “incident” on Friday night only further pushes the narrative into full force for Thomas to have a dominant game this week.
His lack of DFS production a week ago wasn’t due to his play as he was open often, but the Saints offense was able to do what they wanted versus the Bears and never got into a feed CGM scenario. This week, the rush game likely takes a slight step back and the short passing game comes to life — look for Carr to hit Thomas on a couple quick passes in the first quarter and eventually find him for a 13 yard touchdown. Lock in Mike.
Mike Evans (DK: $7200, FD: $7600) … You just don’t bother running it against the Titans, I know they’ve given up some production of late but there’s just no reason to think that Tampa is gonna do that effectively. Load up Mike Evans, I love the Bucs this week to win and Evans to score twice.
TIER TWO PLAYS
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK: $8300, FD: $8600) … ASB and Keenan Allen could have a back and forth day if their OC’s allow them too. Meaning, the RB are the challenge here and there’s just a lot of mouths to feed.
Amari Cooper (DK: $6300, FD: $7100) … We know Watson loves going to Cooper, and the Ravens do too. Which is why I would consider Elijah Moore or Cedric Tillman as second options instead of Cooper because you wouldn’t need a ton of production for the combination to work. That said, Cooper’s final line is going to be just fine and the correlation upside with Watson is hard to ignore.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (DK: $4100, FD: $5600) … The route usage and target usage is going up and up for JSN as he gets more comfortable within the NFL & now gets to face off against a Washington secondary that’s been glorious to big play WR all season. Between JSN & Michael Thomas I have enough 4k value WR to pivot off Tyler Boyd chalk (or play all 3 and just … I dunno, ask DK to let you keep the salary for next week?)
Deebo Samuel (DK: $6200, FD: $7000) … No better time to get Deebo back involved than off a bye week. Look for him to be a big cure for Brock Purdy when he is struggling. The challenge for DFS is we have so many mouths to feed in this offense and CMC is going for that TD streak
MORE VALUE
There’s plenty of good value at WR this week. Thomas, JSN being top two picks. With some contrarian options out there as well such as …
- Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman … Nobody will touch anything in this game and I understand why. But Cleveland will wind up throwing it way more than they have in a while, leading to a ton of value outside of Amari Cooper. They’re ranked in order with Moore being the most likely play but for someone doing multiple lineups I would roll the dice on any of these 2.
- Quentin Johnston … Probably someone I will consider more on the 4PM tilt slate, but works well in going heavy on the DET/LAC game.
- Jameson Williams … Same logic as QJ.
WR’s to Fade
- Tank Dell – Chasing, chasing, chasing….
- JaMarr Chase – I lean Mixon / TE
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
Update; Word this morning is that they WILL LIMIT Hockenson, most likely to just 3rd down and RedZone. He is dropped down for me and I would put David Njoku up as a CORE/Ambush play to pair with Watson. Otherwise, TE is a punt and you know you should just play Taysom Hill….
TJ Hockenson (DK: $5000, FD: $6500) … All the Justin Jefferson volume continues to roll into Hockenson, so even though New Orleans should roll extra coverage from their safeties to prevent Hockenson from going off, he’s still gonna haul in 5-6 catches for 50-60 yards. It’s too easy of a steal here this week.
OTHER TE OPTIONS
ADD: David Njoku – Pair with Watson
Sam LaPorta (DK: $5700, FD: $6500)
Logan Thomas (DK: $3800, FD: $5200)
TE’s to Fade
- Trey McBride … I don’t trust him with Kyler back
The nice thing about this week is that you don’t have to sweat pricing on defenses because of a lot of value elsewhere. The shitty thing is that the most expensive defense is also the chalk defense.
Dallas Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
ADD: Cincinnati Bengals
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
As I mentioned in the intro, look for some “bad” teams to do well this week, or teams you normally wouldn’t be heavy on in DFS. Teams like Atlanta, Cleveland (good team, bad DFS team), Tampa Bay all provide some contrarian stack elements to them. For multi-entry folks, I would go this route this week instead of trying to just get player exposure balanced.
Most overlooked player(s):
- DeShaun Watson, I mean, for good reason ya know…
- Mike Evans as well
Favorite Core Builds:
- DeShaun Watson
- Joe Mixon
- Michael Thomas
- Mike Evans
Favorite Pay Up Spots:
- Running Back
- Mike Evans
Game Stacks:
- Browns/Ravens: D.Watson, A.Cooper, E.Moore, Z.Flowers
- Washington/Seattle: Best full game stack spot today. Geno Smith and the SEA WR are the chalk option. Howell to McLaurin with Kenneth Walker on the other side is a nice pivot to lower ownership.
- Atlanta/Arizona: No QB, B.Robinson, D.London, M.Brown
- Detroit/LA Chargers: J.Goff, J.Gibbs, A.St. Brown, K.Allen
Favorite Bets:
- Browns +6.5
- Browns/Ravens over 38.5
- Tampa Bay -3
- Atlanta -2
- Giants +17.5
Upset Calls:
- Browns over Ravens