A little house keeping note just as a reminder. There will be a Thanksgiving slate Ambush article for the 3 game slate next Thursday, then there will be a special Black Friday Showdown contest for the Jets/Dolphins and then the regular Week 12 Ambush article next weekend. A ton of sports coming up and a ton of winning content coming your way.
WEATHER NOTES
No issues
This is a fairly deep Quarterback slate week. The return of Kyler Murray ($6100 on DK) and Justin Fields ($6900 on DK) with their rushing ability is one big reason for the stronger QB slate than what we have been having. And that’s already factoring in that we do not have Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Jameis Win…. oh wait…
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Jordan Love (DK: $5600, FD: $7300)
The only guys who have not delivered against the Chargers this season are Zach Wilson, Tyson Bagent (he did ok tbh) and Aidan O’Connell. While Jordan Love hasn’t ascended like folks thought, he is far better than those three and is finding a way each week to accumulate enough fantasy points to not burn you. This too without having a rushing TD since week 4, which in my mind is going to change today as well.
On a week with a ton of QB that are all in the same mix, I wanted to find one in an under the radar game that has high scoring potential and while it’s chilly in Lambeau, it’s not 10 degrees chilly. This one has 30-27 final score potential.
CORE QB OPTIONS
- Matthew Stafford (DK: $6400, FD: $6700) … There’s gonna be plenty of hyping up Sam Howell against the Giants and these are mirror images of each other with a few exceptions. Number one, the Seahawks are gonna score on the Rams and when they do, it could be quick plays, so we should see a game with more possessions in this one. Number two, he has Cooper Kupp who is hungry like a wolf… Or, something. Yeah, Stafford over Howell all day.
- Kyler Murray (DK: $6100, FD: $7600) … It is my belief that one has to be dead certain on Kyler before they use him. However, the price that we are being given here with Murray on DraftKings makes it almost impossible to not justify him. Houston’s good & they’re improved on defense, but his speed and maybe more comfort in a second game back could prove to be a little break of reality in the cindarella story Texans’ season. He only ran it 6 times last week, I would think he runs it closer to 9 this week, still not a dominant number, but an extra 5~ points on the ground puts him into the conversation.
- Trevor Lawrence (DK: $6000, FD: $7000) … Before the season I felt that Lawrence was going to move into the elite tier and right now the Jaguars are the team nobody is talking about because it hasn’t been insanely flashy and because everyone is caught up on the Bills/Bengals plummeting back to reality this season. Jacksonville is the 2nd best team in the AFC, they have a clear passing game advantage against the Titans and T-Law is priced incorrectly because of his lack of TD production however you have to factor in that they faced a very angry and rested San Francisco team last week and before the BYE Lawrence himself was banged up. The big issue with Lawrence though is that as teams play the Titans, even though the passing game is open, they wind up in a limited opportunities scenario because of the way Tennessee just kills the clock in games. So the upside is greatly diminished and I am on a big streak here of finding Ambush plays who are in very sneaky high scoring games — and this one isn’t it, because Jacksonville is winning 27-3.
- Tua Tagovailoa (DK: $7700, FD: $8400) … I’m listing Tua because I would encourage taking his betting props more than anything else. These DFS prices for a guy against a defense much weaker against the run & with a strong running game are going to be hard for him to have a ceiling spot. But put that aside, Miami is going to boat race the Raiders as we like to say. Love them to drop a 30-40 point game and that will include Tua having a 2 TD game to Waddle or Hill (heavy lean on Waddle for me this week).
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Kareem Hunt (DK: $4900, FD: $6300) … Without DeShaun Watson the Browns have one game plan. Play stout defense and pound the fucking rock. It’s clear Hunt is the better upside play right now in close games because of his reception ability in 2-minute type drill situations. The carries are close enough w/ Ford as well and I’ve got some higher $ WR who I would like to fill in with that really becomes easier with the cheaper RB. There’s even a good idea here to use BOTH Ford and Hunt.
CORE RUNNING BACKS THIS WEEK
- Austin Ekeler (DK: $8600, FD: $8800) … The best way to beat Green Bay for years has been with RB, but Ekeler might not seem like the prototypical type of RB to go into Lambeau and do damage — yet the offense should move the ball well and in a correlation with J.Love at QB I want someone from the Chargers. Ekeler is a red-zone machine and so I am taking a leap of faith that he gets into the endzone twice.
- Breece Hall (DK: $6400, FD: $7100) … Teams are getting a consistent chunk of yards when they need it on the ground against Buffalo. If the game script does flow to the Bills having to run it more then this is a game we’ll want to only invest in guys who find the box and Hall should be able to do that a lot better than anyone else on the Jets offense.
- Brian Robinson (DK: $5800, FD: $7200) … Even your uncle Rico liked Tony Pollard as a RB vs the Giants last week, but now nobody wants to use B-Rob here? Weird. I get that Howell is dominating but lets not ignore that Washington SHOULD run it heavy and SHOULD control the LOS in the ground game.
- Kenneth Walker (DK: $6700, FD: $7400) … I trust Walker way more than I trust the Rams RB situation. Both scenarios are going up against bottom tier rush defenses but with a banged up Lockett as well the Seahawks should be smart to use Walker often on early downs to get him close to 100 yards rushing on the day.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Christian Kirk (DK: $6000, FD: $6900) … All in on the Jaguars riding Lawrence and his WR. Tennessee has nobody that will cover him, whether in man or zone. Jacksonville should throw it 28+ times this week, Kirk should haul in 30% of those targets and amass a good portion of their yards here as well. I don’t see how he doesn’t finish with a score that plugs into your lineup very nicely.
THE CORE OPTIONS
- Christian Watson (DK: $4600, FD: $5700) … This is WAY more about trusting Jordan Love than Watson himself. You know the Chargers defense can’t defend WR, you know the tempo on the game should be good, and we’re banking on Love to have a strong game both with his legs and arm. Fortunately, we don’t need Love to do too much with Watson here for only $4600.
- Cooper Kupp (DK: $8100, FD: $8200) … Would not shock me to see the Rams force Kupp back into the offense a ton early on. In week one against Seattle it was the Puka show while Kupp was out and now with Kupp back the Seahawks are going to be left scratching their heads on how to handle both of them. Doesn’t matter. Beacuse the Rams coming off a BYE and rolling a healthier Stafford back on to the field should go short passing game to both of them with Kupp being Stafford’s first choice.
- CeeDee Lamb (DK: $9200, FD: $9200) … Every season in the NFL we get a new WR who becomes the automatic stud play. Lamb is that guy and will catch about 7 passes over the middle, total nearly 90-110 yards and put one into the end zone.
- Jaylen Waddle (DK: $7600, FD: $7100) … Pair with Tua or play naked, but Waddle is the favorite leverage off the rest of the Dolphins being chalky (especially the RB)
VALUE
Rondale Moore (DK: $3300, FD: $4900) … A big target boost in Kyler’s first game back, facing a pass defense which has given up some bigger spots to speedy/shifty type receivers and Moore should catch plenty short passes today and be able to make some damage after them. Getting Moore + Kirk into lineups allows to easily smash in one of the stud WR’s that are high floor plays this week
Jauan Jennings (DK: $3600, FD: $5000) … So the 49ers return home feeling all good about themselves and have a nice passing matchup against Tampa. Not so fast my friends, buyer beware on the 49ers just blowing out Tampa Bay, this really smells like one of those MLB games where you go into Coors Field and the 7-8-9 hitters do all the damage. I like the secondary options for San Francisco to be wide open and worth a dart.
Man, no Taysom Hill this week and no Kyle Pitts to make fun of. The struggle is real in the Renner house folks… Lets find a TE that we can trust, shall we?
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Sam LaPorta (DK: $5800, FD: $6700) … We have made it to the TE portion of the article and you are seeing my first mention of the Bears/Lions game. I know that feels a little odd given the total is 48.5 and the whole world wants to stack up the Lions. I don’t. I don’t even think the Lions are a lock button to win this week either, but I do know that Chicago’s paying ZERO attention to opposing TE of late and LaPorta is probably the lowest owned of the ‘top’ options on the Lions despite being a 10+ point guy almost every week. Yes, he is priced up and thus not an automatic lock here with some cheap TE options but he is my favorite from this game.
OTHER TE OPTIONS
- Cole Kmet (DK: $4100, FD: $5600) … For $1700 cheaper one can easily say just go Kmet over LaPorta. And I am honestly leaning that way myself the more I think about it.
- Luke Musgrave (DK: $3000, FD: $5200)
- Evan Engram (DK: $4300, FD: $5700)
- Trey McBride (DK: $4400, FD: $5900)
Defense is all about trusting your gut or just taking you what is smacking you in the face.
- Dolphins (DK: $3200, FD: $4200) … This is smacking us in the face
- Browns (DK: $3700, FD: $4500) … This is a defense who should be 4k+ against Kenny Pickett
- Jets (DK: $2600, FD: $3700) … This is getting that automatic 2 turnover and 2 sack floor against Josh Allen
- Bears (DK: $2400, FD: $3200) … This is me listing the Bears to throw you a curve ball.
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
The more I go through the options this week the more I see lots of hidden gems out there. It’s a nice pay up for a good player type week.
Most overlooked player(s): Austin Ekeler, Christian Kirk
The Ambush CORE: Jordan Love, Kareem Hunt, Christian Kirk, Christian Watson
Favorite Pay Up Spots: WR
Game Stacks:
- Chargers/Packers
- Seahawks/Rams
Favorite Bets:
- Chargers/Packers over 43.5
- Jaguars -6.5
- Bears +8
- Jets +7.5
Upset Calls:
- Jets over Bills