WEATHER NOTES
All fine, some rain in spots but nothing that’s significant.
FAVORITE GAMES
Jaguars at Texans
Buccaneers at Colts
Bills at Eagles
DUMPSTER FIRE GAMES
Patriots at Giants
Steelers at Bengals
Browns at Broncos (Good game actually, just limited for DFS)
EXPECTED BLOWOUTS
Panthers at Titans … Terrible match-up for Carolina & while the Titans aren’t playing for this season they are not going to just stop playing for their HC.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
JOSH ALLEN … Take a glance at the Bills upcoming schedule my friends. You may see that they’re going into Philly and think no chance but it’s now or never for them. A season which hasn’t been good for them is going to get much worse very quickly but this is a prime spot to pick on an Eagles team riding high off their MNF win vs the Chiefs and then coming home for a resting holiday week. Big time trap spot for a little shootout and Allen will have success in the air because his mobility/size can offset the Philly pass rush and then just carve up a secondary which gives up a lot of yards simply because nobody runs on them.
REST OF THE LIST
Look, the short answer is almost nobody else, and as always QB doesn’t matter 90% of the time outside of those 1 or 2 CJ Stroud type games. So it’s either a pay up for Allen/Hurts (big lean on Allen) or slide down to the cheaper spots. If you want Mahomes, just play Kelce. Here are three ugly ones for various reasons.
- Gardner Minshew … The why is that Tampa’s rush defense is still good enough to force Indianapolis into a heavier passing plan than they would like. I also expect Tampa to move it easily on Indianapolis and so the number of possessions will go up and we got ourselves a nice 27-24 type battle in Indy. Minshew has not thrown more than 2 TD but has completed over 65% of his passes in the last two games. I think he settles in for a nice and easy game today. I don’t hate the idea of Baker Mayfield either, especially if Rachaad White is OUT.
- Desmond Ridder … There is a big time either or here for Ridder. The Falcons touchdowns would come through their ground today even with Marshon Lattimore out for New Orleans. That actually hurts their tackling in the secondary and they’ve never handled rushing QB’s well. If he could run two in then you’re gonna get a 20+ game from him. If he rushes zero then it’s one of the RB who does it.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
TRAVIS ETIENNE … Jaguars at Texans in week 12 is the best game of 2023 so far. Go figure, but this one has all the makings of a great high scoring battle & when that happens we shouldn’t ignore the RB. I’m not in love with Jacksonville’s passing game, but their ground attack is what I trust to get back on track.
REST OF THE LIST
- Derrick Henry … The calendar is quickly approaching DeHember time. Carolina is quickly approaching the end of the season for them. This game should be a beat down and both Henry and Spears will have their way on the ground.
- Bijan Robinson … Once a stout rush defense, the Saints have become mediocre defending the run, which means they’re not gonna completely get gashed but they’ll also give up some red zone rushing touchdowns. Obviously the challenge here is if Ridder or other options come to life in the red zone for Atlanta, but I would still take a gamble on Bijan getting his breakout game here soon and also off a BYE week.
- Rachaad White .. Very similar logic on Etienne here, I want exposure to the RB in any dome game that my model is projecting to be a shootout. And by model I mean whatever the leftovers are telling my brain. He has popped up as a late injury concern but I do not in any way think that he won’t suit up and give it a go.
- Isaah Pacheco … This is the R.White pivot.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Chris Godwin … This one was a hard decision this week but ultimately I couldn’t make the high $ Diggs an Ambush play when its Allen who I really want there. So between those two you know you need one in my mind and in the case of WR there’s a lot of mid range value with guys like Godwin. He thrives on turf and Baker should have no trouble connecting with him over the middle.
REST OF THE LIST
- STEFON DIGGS … Diggs is must watch TV today. He’s either going for 150 yards receiving and 3 TD or he’s going to be yelling obscenities on the sideline & walking off the field Antonio Brown style. If he does get a few draws against Darius Slay that’s not a concern either because they know each other well from NFC North battles and Diggs won enough for me to go here with him as the must own pick. I’ll find value elsewhere stacking him with Allen if need be, or you go Allen naked or lock in on Gabe Davis who is sure to get fed some darts here as well.
- Nico Collins … Run it back correlation with Etienne as everyone continues to flock to Tank Dell. I still trust my guy Nico as the TD big weapon here.
- Josh Downs / Michael Pittman … Downs is probably my go to first option for a value pick. Downs isn’t dirt cheap but the big play ability against Tampa’s defense is what I like.
- Calvin Ridley … The return of Zay Jones to the offense has opened the doors for Ridley to play in the slot where he seems to only be able to do well
- JaMarr Chase … A little extra time shouldn’t be necessary for anyone to realize Chase is their best WR, but it cannot hurt that the further away we get from Burrow being behind center the more Chase’s numbers are going to go back up (which is not a knock on Burrow, its just pointing out what Browning should do).
HIDDEN VALUE
The best value options on this slate appear to be Khalil Shakir & Josh Downs
- Jonathan Mingo … Mingo’s been getting enough target volume and the Titans defense could lend itself to him catching more this week. Sub 3500 on DK, he wont break the slate but he won’t burn you.
- Hunter Renfrow … Now that he has been freed to actually play would you take 9-10 fpts for 3100? I certainly will. He’s a late slate gem this week.
- Trey Palmer
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Travis Kelce … Quiet season one could say for Kelce on the field. But the Raiders and Vegas will cure him right. This is an 100 yard 2 TD spot upside. I would rank Diggs or Allen ahead of Kelce in terms of pay up decisions, but there’s no denying what he could do compared to a weak TE field.
REST OF THE LIST
- Taysom Hill / Juwan Johnson … Fellow TE Juwan Johnson should benefit from Thomas being out, a little more than AT Perry and TE have destroyed the Falcons all season long. Then again, Taysom Hill against the Falcons has always been a cheat code. These are the only two Saints I will consider today.
- Dalton Kincaid
- Broncos & Browns
- Titans
- Giants
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player(s):
- Stefon Diggs
The Ambush CORE:
- Josh Allen, Travis Etienne, Chris Godwin
Favorite Pay Up Spots:
- Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs
Game Stacks:
- Bucs/Colts
- Jaguars/Texans
- Bills/Eagles
Favorite Bets:
- Titans -3.5
- Bills ML
- 6 point Teaser: Bucs/Colts OVER 38.5 & Titans +2.5
Upset Calls:
- Bills over Eagles