Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (Spread: Buffalo -7, Total: 47.5)
Denver comes in having won two in a row (both at home) and finally showing some signs of life on defense over the past couple of weeks. Had they not blown their game against the Jets a few weeks back they would be coming in having won 4 of 5. Sean Payton still knows what he is doing folks.
Buffalo comes in to their third straight prime time game after a home TNF win over the Bucs and a road SNF loss at Cincinnati. The Bills haven’t had their BYE week and could be a little off/tired from the lack of a consistent routine while Denver is off a BYE week.
Everything on paper is going to want people to back the Bills. But all the recent elements have the Broncos looking very likely to play above expectations and hang around in this game.
The weather should not be an issue at all tonight.
BRONCOS CORE
Denver will run the ball 60% of the time today and if they don’t then it’s a lot of Wilson throwing it short and underneath on quick passes to the TE, FB, RB. This is clearly a big part of the scheme to protect their defense and also should be the focus against Buffalo who has been vulnerable at times on the ground. By no means is Javonte Williams going to carry it 27 times again, but they are off a BYE and he is fully healthy here so expect him to justify the $10k captain price.
- Javonte Williams – RB (Captain)
- Courtland Sutton – WR
Value Options
- Jaleel McLaughlin – RB
- Marvin Mins – WR … There will be 1 or 2 shot plays called in this game for Mims, but I wouldn’t be going overboard on exposure to him
BILLS CORE
Kind of a similar logic set here for Buffalo in that they should try to attack the Broncos ground game. But if the Broncos are having success at limiting the possessions for Buffalo then you’re going to wind up seeing them get antsy and call lots of early down pass plays to try and flip the field position and get a big play. Thus, Josh Allen is more preferred than loading up on Diggs in the captain spot because Allen will account for most of the damage for Buffalo. I also would not expect Diggs to have a Captain dominant type game.
- Josh Allen – QB (Captain)
- Gabe Davis – WR
- James Cook – WR
- Dalton Kincaid – TE
Value Options
- Latavius Murray
- Deonte Harty
PREDICTION/BETS
This won’t be the kicker fest that SNF was, but it will be viable to use one or both kickers in builds tonight. I would lean on the under coming through barely and Buffalo pulling off the win, but it is going to require their defense to get a late stop on Russell Wilson.
Final Score: Buffalo 23, Denver 20