We had a fantastic Sunday after a pretty good Saturday and now we look to close out the Holiday weekend with some extra presents on this Christmas Monday.
If you want to win in DFS today you’ll probably need to have a lineup which feels weird or uncomfortable to you. There are some opportunities in the SGP/prop betting markets though and not the bad way to get action on this holiday.
UPDATE: Josh Jacobs OUT for the Raiders again. Just take that cheap RB chalk and pay up for studs now..
GAME THEORIES
Raiders at Chiefs: The first meeting was late November with the Chiefs winning 31-17 behind a strong second half performance. Josh Jacobs, Jakobi Meyers, Isiah Pachecho and Rashee Rice were the four stars in that game. I have a hard time putting too much on the Raiders offense here in Arrowhead to get similar production and feel the Chiefs will win by a similar 2 TD margin of something around 27-13.
Giants at Eagles: Horrific NFL scheduling job here with these divisional opponents having 2 games in the final three weeks of the season. One of these teams is playing better than the other but don’t be a sucker here, Philly will hold on and win — but maybe not cover.
Ravens at Niners: Obviously the big game of the day, week, year? I expect the hype to hold and the offense to thrive in this game.
Top Plays
I love the Niners passing game and think Purdy is gonna throw for 3 TD. That’s all. Chase the Mahomes game all you want, it’s just not happening folks, but he WILL do enough to be a fine balanced lineup pick.
AOC and DeVito slippers will not hold, they are not going over 12 fantasy points each, while others will go over 20. The QB point gap is large enough to not punt this position.
- Brock Purdy
- Patrick Mahomes
Top Plays
Everything about this slate circles back to the RB position. It’s gonna be impossible to be comfortable here unless you default to playing CMC and Pacheco.
Josh Jacobs has a long lay off from their last game until now to be recovered to touch it 15 times on the ground for a whopping 60 yards. But with a thin slate of RB in the mid range he’s the most sure thing IMO for volume. Pacheco is gonna split some and obviously Swift will too, but I also trust their chances to produce efficiently.
- Isaiah Pacheco
- D’Andre Swift
Josh Jacobs- Christian McCaffrey … I would rather take my confidence in top WR this Monday and roll the dice on cheaper RB’s. He is gonna do fine, but doesn’t quite fit what I am comfortable building around.
- Zamir White
Sleepers
- Justice Hill
Top Plays
The three guys listed here are pretty much the confidence spot for me on this slate and having 3 WR as your confidence spot is normally bad, unless of course we are talking about a short slate. In this scenario you are really doubling down when you get a WR pick right because it immediately takes others out of the equation.
Aiyuk Brown Rice, it’s like ordering Chinese on Christmas, no? At the end of the night, you might wanna feel sneaky doing it, but damn it tastes so good. Unfortunately though, fitting all three in really puts you in a bind at the other positions, so try to have 2 of these 3 as your cores and then go to the value to mix in.
- A.J. Brown
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Rashee Rice
- Zay Flowers
Value
- Rashod Bateman
- Hunter Renfroe
- Darius Slayton
- Marquez-Valdes Scantling
Top Picks
- George Kittle
- Travis Kelce
- Isaiah Likely
- Daniel Bellinger – Value
Sorry but Tommy DeVito is by far the worst QB on this slate and it isn’t even close. While the Eagles have been banged up and struggling defensively, they can still turn him over like they would against Daniel Jones if they were drawing him. So in a spot where the Giants might score a few points, they’ll also make mistakes. Don’t overlook Philly’s Defense.
- Eagles
- Chiefs
- Niners
AMBUSH CORE PLAYERS
Brock Purdy
Isiah Pacheco
Brandon Aiyuk
BETS
Chiefs -10
Giants +12
Niners -5.5