Farmers Insurance Open
THIS IS A WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENT!!!
Like last week, we have a pretty solid field. Also, like last week, we have a multi-course event. Unlike last week, we have the normal cut after two days with everyone playing the North Course once and the South Course once at Torrey Pines. The weekend (which is actually Friday & Saturday) will be played entirely on the South Course (the more difficult on) with the Top 65 and ties.
Stack your Wednesday and Thursday Showdown lineups with guys on the North Course since it is the easier of the two. Weekend? Pick the guys that shine in a U. S. Open style setting since the South Course plays like that.
With that being said about the Showdown lineups, our 4-day lineups should also lean towards guys that play difficult setups better – Schauffele, Cantlay, Morikawa, etc. Problem there is all of them are $10,000 and higher. We need to find some good players at lower prices. I like “West Coast” Homa too, but he’s even $10,100.
Highlights: Torrey Pines (South & North)
South Course – Par 72 @ 7,700 yards. Thick rough! (It’s a beast and those making the cut will play it 3 times)
North Course – Par 72 @ 7,200 yards
THE SOUTH COURSE IS PLAYED 3 TIMES AND IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT!
The South Course has POA ANNUA greens while the North has Bentgrass. The key will be staying away from bogeys or worse. Bombers will have an advantage due to the length, but the fairways aren’t huge so the “Bomber-Sprayers” may not be as lucky.
Again, look for guys that perform well in Majors. I’ll try to point them out, but if you have a gut feeling, go for it.
THIS IS ALSO AN ODD TOURNAMENT – but not as odd as last week!! This week, we only have TWO courses to deal with.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
Like last week, we’ll look at these guys individually since there are only four. I’m really only interested in one of these guys if I think they can finish Top 10. Otherwise, the return doesn’t justify the cost.
- Xander Schauffele ($10,600) – History here: T13-T34-T2-MC-T25. Anything prior to that is before Xander became one of the elite players in my mind. Coming off two straight Top 10s.
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,500) – Disappointing last week as I thought he’d kill those easy courses. Not much in the way of history here, but one of the emphasized criteria above was “Pick the guys that shine on U. S. Open style” courses. Definition: Cantlay!
- Collin Morikawa ($10,200) – Plays well on Majors setups? CHECK! Playing well? T5-7th-Win-T4 CHECK! Consistent as hell! History here: Not a lot but 3rd (2023) and T21 (2020) CHECK!
- Max “West Coast” Homa ($10,100) – Playing well (T14-T13-Win) in last three and good recent history (Win-MC-T18-T9) here. Until a few years ago, Homa would inevitably compete for a Top 10s on the West Coast but, lately, his game travels well too.
My gut, in order, Morikawa-Schauffele-Cantlay-Homa!
$9,000 to $9,900
- Sungjae Im ($9,900)** – Almost five figures, but also one of the most consistent guys on Tour. If you want to ignore the five-figure guys and start here, I have no issues with that. He’s made the cut here every year and is T4 and T6 in the last two.
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,700) – I like this guy to compete every week he plays. This price may be a little high for me given the quality of the rest of the field. But, he is solid!
- Min Wo Lee ($9,100) – This is my BOLD CALL of the week. This guy has made his last 11 cuts swinging between the World Tour and the PGA Tour. A strong -20 showing last week is encouraging.
- Tony Finau ($9,300)** – A very strong player at Torrey Pines. Has made 8 of 9 cuts here – all of them Top 25s. Now wins, but FIVE Top 10s.
$8,000 to $9,000
- Keegan Bradley ($8,900)** – Keegan is playing fantastic golf right now. Plus, coming off a T2 at Sony, he seems to love Torrey Pines with 3 Top 5s in his last 6 times here.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000)** – “Sneezie” is one of the hottest players in golf right now. Why Sneezie? If you have to ask, you’ve never read one of my articles. Only played her once, but his current form is 2nd-3rd-T17-T9 (partially on the WT).
- Will Zalatoris ($8,000) – I’m still not 100% sold on his form being back, but he had four solid rounds last week and this is one of his favorite venues. MC’d last year but 2nd and T7 prior to that. I think he wasn’t healthy last year.
- Justin Rose ($8,300) – I am nowhere near as excited to play Justin as I would have been five – maybe even two – years ago. But, as we noted above, play guys at Torrey that are good on U.S. Open style set ups. Cue Rosie! T18-T6-MC-Win-T8-T4 in recent history.
- Good Tier! Bonus Picks: Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,400) & Adrian Meronk ($8,200) – Hojgaard and Meronk are unknowns because it’s their first time here. However, in recent form, they’ve played 9 events in the last 12 weeks combined. Worst finish? T32 Top 10s? 6
$7,000 to $7,900
- Luke List ($7,800)** – 6 straight made cuts at Torrey.
- Ryo Hisatusune ($7,500)** – Five events in the last 12 weeks with four Top 20s – including three Top 15s.
- Matthieu Pavon ($7,100) – Look! I’ve been playing him the last few weeks and he hasn’t let me down. Ride until the bull throws you off! At sub-$7,500 you can try to get back on once or twice too before giving up!
- Michael Kim ($7,300) – He’s made 5 straight cuts including a T6 last week in a mutli-course event. He’s played here plenty and his best finish is T23, but I doubt he’s come into this event playing this well.
Under $7,000
We’re back to the point where this Tier is a stretch but we can find some positive salary-savers.
- Greyson Sigg ($6,900)
- Stewart Cink ($6,900)
- Lanto Griffin ($6,800)
- Joseph Bramlett ($6,800) – Two Top 20s in last 4 years here.
- Garrick Higgo ($6,500)
Longshot(s)
- Patrick Rodgers ($7,700) – Recent play: T24-T14-T16. Has had tow Top 10 finishes here too (2020 & 2017)
- Sam Ryder ($7,200) – Two Top 10s here in the last 3 years with a MC in between. The bad side? He seems to miss the cut in even years! It’s 2024! But, I’m looking at a guy that is different now.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!