Down to just two more weeks of NFL DFS until the Super Bowl, which no, we really don’t care that much about my friends. Last week was a VERY good week but there was still too much good chalk out there to prevent a major sweep across the board.
We don’t have the major weather drama that we had last week, but it will still be very cold in Baltimore and Buffalo.
The breakdown this week will feature the top plays listed above with some information and then a list of ‘other’ considerations.
UPDATE: Mark Andrews will not be back yet. This means Likely is a Definitely play IMO and I am also on the Odell train this week, I think he scores, and he does it twice.
Lamar Jackson
My #1 offense this week is Baltimore, with #2 being the Bills or 49ers. But it’s a big gap when we factor in that Houston is gonna turn it over and give the Ravens a couple freebie possessions as well. Expect Lamar to rush for 40+ yards and account for 3 touchdowns. Of all the playoff defenses remaining, the Texans allowed the highest comp % to opposing QB’s and being on the road that number would figure to only be steady or go up. Expect a solid game from the consensus league MVP.
Sunday Only: Josh Allen
Other QBs I am considering: None. It’s Lamar and AFC Taysom for me. The ownership on this slate is going to be heavy on Lamar, Purdy and Love. I’m leaning towards the Bucs/Lions game being a little bit of a slug fest draw that plays slower than anticipated. The guy who is probably getting overlooked is Mahomes. We’re all down on the Chiefs and everyone is bashing them for having to go on the road in the playoffs finally. If I hadn’t made my bed with the Bills winning the Super Bowl to start the playoffs then I would like going to the Mahomes “remember me” spot and he could still do that, but it won’t happen without some Bills circling the wagons too.
Christian McCaffrey
This is much more of a DraftKings play than FanDuel where he is $10,800. But there is no reason for the 49ers to not ride CMC who did suffer a late season boo-boo, and there’s no limit to what he could do against the Packers. They’ve been an improved defense, but are still vulnerable to backs and should give up a rushing TD to CMC this week. Bold, I know… San Francisco runs them out of the building. CMC gets 20+ FPTS.
Favorite RB2 for 4-game Main slate: David Montgomery.
Nobody wants to use a RB vs the Bucs and if they do, they want it to be Gibbs. I get that, and Gibbs usage does look to be going up — but when you get inside the 5 on Tampa you can run it against them and that’s where Montgomery should thrive here.
Favorite Saturday RB2: Gus Edwards
Favorite Sunday RB2: James Cook & Isiah Pacheco
Khalil Shakir
I am right back on the bandwagon once again this week. Why? Well, we know we’re gonna want some value at WR and there’s nobody better than Shakir IMO. He’s drawing enough usage to hit a simple floor and the signs have been there for him to break a big one here or there. Remember that wild Gabe Davis game in Arrowhead a couple season ago? Lets refresh that stat line here with Shakir.
Christian Watson
San Francisco should be able to limit Green Bay’s offensive rushing attack, which puts me on their WR to get some better volume out of necessity but also due to matchup. With the limited quality of production there should be an emphasis put on the big play ability, which lands us on a now healthy Watson.
Top Projected WR by team
- BAL: Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham
- HOU: Nico Collins
- SF: Brandon Aiyuk / Deebo Samuel. Zero difference here for me.
- DET: Jameson Williams. Mostly because of cost. I would lean on the RB/TE for the Lions. Tampa defense travels well.
- TB: Chris Godwin
- KC: Rashee Rice
Sam LaPorta
He was good enough last week and now he gets the worst defense vs TE still going… Sure, the Texans are bad too, but the Ravens flipping between Andrews and Likely is challenging. Although on Saturday only, we really gotta consider double Ravens TE stack with Lamar.
Next Tier: Dalton Kincaid, Isaiah Likely
San Francisco 49ers
This is one of my favorite CORE picks this week. Going a CORE pick on a defense in the playoffs can be very dicey (as we saw with the Texans last week), but the Niners with the extra rest against the Packers after their blowout are gonna murder Love and Green Bay.
LINEUP APPROACH
This feels very much like a ‘stack’ it out week. I expect a couple blowouts from the #1 seeds and then we get some big time drama-filled games next week. The top teams to stack are the Ravens, Niners, Bills and Chiefs in that order. And don’t be afraid to include the D/ST in your stack because what would be more wild than every defense scoring this week?
AMBUSH CORE PLAYERS
Lamar Jackson
Christian McCaffrey
Khalil Shakir
Sam LaPorta
San Francisco 49ers
BETS
So here’s the hard thing from a betting perspective. We want there to be some shocker upset, but this just isn’t that year the way things are setup. Chiefs/Bills is not an upset either way. So the upset would have to come from Houston, Green Bay or Tampa Bay and I don’t see any of those three being the case. But if you wanted to pick one, it’s for sure Tampa Bay being able to go into Detroit and win a low scoring game.
Texans/Ravens over 43.5 and I like Ravens to cover, but more confident here in the total hitting.
San Francisco -9.5, this is also a likely over candidate.
Tampa Bay +6.5 and the under if you have balls….
Nobody…. Circles the wagons…. Like the Buffalo Bills, get their ML instead of laying the 3.