AT&T Pebble Beach
Well, we are still in this “weird” part of the season. Multiple course events, Pro-Ams, No Cut, etc. Well, this week, we have it all! This is an “elevated event” with an 80-man field. Thus, the no cut scenario. In the past, we’ve played three courses here, but fortunately, they’ve decided to take that down to two this year – Pebble Beach and Spyglass. And, of course, it’s the legendary Pro-Am. Again, fortunately for us, there won’t be a “Pro-Am Cut” where some play the weekend. This year, it’s over on Friday and the players can focus on the tournament.
Highlights: Pebble Beach – Par 72 @ 6,800 yards
Short course with wide fairways and short rough. The defenses for this course are the small greens and, being a seaside course, the weather.
Spyglass Hill – Par 72 @ 7,041 yards
Narrow fairways and is tree-lined. The longer of the two courses and, if the wind blows, the more protected. This course will only be played once by each player so, other than Thursday/Friday Showdowns, I wouldn’t worry about it – and that’s if the wind blows.
ALTHOUGH MORE FAMOUS, Pebble Beach is the easier of the two courses!
If the weather isn’t bad, I would stick with guys playing Pebble Beach in Showdown contests.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
Only four guys get the designation this week. With no cut and a limited field, the pricing of these guys isn’t as relevant.
- Rory McIlroy ($11,500) – No real history (MC in 2018). Recent play: Win-T2-T22.
- Scottie Scheffler ($11,400) –No history, but it is Scottie! Recent play: T17-T5-Win.
- Viktor Hovland ($10,200) – T13 here last year! Recent play: T22-10th-T2.
- Xander Schauffele ($10,000) – MC in 2017 but no other entries. Recent play: T9-T3-T10.
Feel free to play any of these guys. They’re all playing too well to avoid them, but other than Hovland, no one has played this tournament and made the cut. The 2019 U. S. Open results may help, but the set up would be different and likely more difficult.
- Schauffele T3
- McIlroy T9
- Hovland T12
- Scheffler “Brock Purdy” – Not relevant at that time (DNP)
$9,000 to $9,900
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,700)** – I expected him to be $10K. He hasn’t been on fire lately but he was T4-T3-T11 in his last 3 visits here. T21 at the 2019 Open. I have confidence in him. He can hit you with that really low number too – once, or maybe twice, this week.
- Collin Morikawa ($9,100)** – I’m not letting his “choke” last week bother me. It was one hole that did him in. He usually bounces back with a vengeance when he performs way below what is expected. No experience in this tournament.
- Justin Thomas ($9,600) – Making this an Elevated Event is bringing out a lot of guys that have avoided this tournament. Playing with amateurs for four days wasn’t a major enticement either I’m sure. MC at 2019 Open, but he’s back to the old JT – at least I think so.
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,000) – Sorry, I just like this guy and he’s at the low end of the Tier. He’d work in a balanced lineup even if there was a cut.
- Jordan Spieth ($9,400) – I’m adding him because I took Aberg and really couldn’t make up my mind between the two. I think you could flip between Aberg and Morikawa as far as my confidence level in where they will finish. However, Spieth is a Course Horse – T63-2nd-T3-T9-T45-T20-Win-T21-T7-T4…T65 at 2019 Open.
$8,000 to $9,000
- Jason Day ($8,400)** – His current form is encouraging. He missed the cut last week because of a bad first round. If Spieth is the Course Horse, it’s a photo-finish with Day…DNP-T24-T7-4th-T4-T2-T5-T11-T4-MC!
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,100)** – $8,100 for a guy that’s playing like this? Sign my ass up now! I don’t care if he’s played here before. He hadn’t played the last three events either (at least I don’t think so) and he finished 2, T7, and T25. That’s following a Win and a 2nd place finish on the World Tour before that.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,200) – This price is laughable! Enough said!
- Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) – Like Cantlay, I can see him busting a low number or numbers at any time. Pebble for three rounds could be that place!
$7,000 to $7,900
- Justin Rose ($7,500)** – Winner here last year. He’s not playing at the top tier right now, but for $7,500 in a no cut event for the defending champ…worth a shot!
- Denny McCarthy ($7,500)** – Playing better than Rose right now and has a T4 and a T12 in the last two years.
- Brian Harman ($7,600) – Just a gut feeling. He rarely plays poorly and, in bigger events, he seems to “show up”!
- Nick Taylor ($7,200) – 5 straight cuts here and Top 20 in 3 of them. The cut part isn’t important this week, but the finishes are.
Under $7,000
No cut so the salary savers become part of a stars and scrubs lineup.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,900) – You miss one cut and suddenly you go from a “hot player” to a “salary saver”. I’m not buying it. Calling it: Top 15!!!
- Taylor Moore ($6,400)
- Patrick Rodgers ($6,900)
- Thomas Detry ($6,600)
- Maverick McNealy ($6,200)
- Matt Kuchar ($6,200)
Longshot(s)
- Kevin Yu ($7,200) – Recent play: T6 & T3. Last year: T7
- Tom Hoge ($6,700) – A past winner (2022) who has made 3 of 4 cuts this year so he isn’t playing poorly. Under $7K for a guy that seems to like these courses? Yes please!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!