Sony Open
That wasn’t as easy as it looked was it? I’m talking about cashing not the guys playing Kapalua. I knew it would be really low scores winning, but damn! Granted, I didn’t play a lot of lineups. I never do this time of year – and especially in no cut events. But, the only 4-round lineup I won anything on was on FanDuel. The $9 PGA Eagle. I won $16, but I scored 796.9 points. That’s the bad thing about no cuts.
So, we are moving on to another island but staying in Hawai’i. This will be the final event in the “Can I buy a Vowel?” part of the season – Kapalua & Waialae? Maui & Oahu? Get it? The one thing about this part of the season – other than the fact that many guys haven’t played in a while is the difference in the courses between these two events. This IS NOT your typical “resort course.”
Highlights: Waialae Golf Club
Par 70 – 7,000+ yards
Narrow Fairways
Smallish Greens
Check last week’s article. You’ll find it’s the opposite of last week.
One thing I do focus on is the fact that, most of the time, the winner this week also played last week. So, if you are between two guys and one played last week and one didn’t, go with the guy that played Kapalua.
Just an oddity that I noticed that probably isn’t that significant is that 3 of the 4 guys priced at five figures have never played this tournament. And, Theegala has only played it once. Does it matter? Probably not since all four also played last week.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$9,000 and Above
- Chris Kirk ($9,500)** – Normally, I don’t like the previous week’s winner. However, it’s early and Kirk seems to like this course. He’s missed several cuts but in the last three years, he’s 3rd- T27- T2!
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,200)** – He didn’t do as well last week as I had hoped, T14, but he’s been playing and playing well. Of the four in the five-figure range, I think I trust him the most this week.
- Brian Harman ($9,900) – He has missed one cut here in 10 years. Now, at this price, I want more than that. He’s been Top 10 in his last two outings. I’m not a statistician so I need to rely on help from other sources. On that source though, it should be noted that on comparable courses, he gains .715 total strokes to the field.
- Corey Conners ($9,800) – Course horse? Closet thing I’m seeing this week. He’s played 5 of the last 6 years. His finishes? T12-T11-DNP-T12-T3-T39! After that first year, it appears he figured it out!
- NOTES: I also like Eric Cole ($9,700) and Russell Henley ($9,600) based on their current forms. I would love to play Will Zalatoris ($9,300) but I want to wait and see how he comes back from the injury last year. He may make a longshot lineup if I do that but for the price, I need some “show me” before I go there consistently.
$8,000 to $9,000
- Si Woo Kim ($8,600)** – I normally don’t use Si Woo for anything other than the “oh, I have this much money left, who fits play.” However, dude seems to like this course and did win here last year.
- Byeong Hun An ($8,700)** – I have, in the past, like to play the Asian players here. Many Asian players like the shortish jaunt to the Hawaiian Islands to play and, some, it’s the only time you see them on the PGA Tour. Not An! I’m also not real impressed with the guys in this tier this week and his T12 finish here last year and 4th place finish last week gives me some comfort.
- Justin Rose ($8,200) – This is play purely because of price. How often will you see Justin Rose in the low $8K range. In his one appearance at Waialae – 2nd place. And, he did play last week. If you somehow get a Top 10 out of him at this price, you’ve gained ground on the field.
- Harris English ($8,300) – He just makes cuts here and did finish T14 last week.
$7,000 to $7,900
- Matt Kuchar ($7,400)** – T7 the last two years and Kuch has been playing well. He’s not flashy but he tends to avoid trouble too.
- Luke List ($7,600)** – T22 last week and has been Top 20 in his last three events. He’s missed 4 of 5 cuts here but I don’t think he’s come into Waialae playing this well for some time.
- Akshay Bhatia ($7,800) – He folded a little on Sunday last week, but has 4 Top 20s in his last 5 events. No history here but I like him.
- Lucas Glover ($7,700) & Brendon Todd ($7,900) – I can’t make my mind up on these two so I’ll give you both.
Honestly, I’d feel good playing all five of the guys listed here in a lineup and using what was left to get myself one of the top tier guys.
Under $7,000
Very few of the guys in this tier played last week. As I said before, I’ll give deference to those that played last week over not – especially with this Tier.
- Camilo Villegas ($6,500)** – He doesn’t have good history here but he’s seemed to turn it around late last year and did play a Kapalua. He had a win (Bermuda) and a T2 (World Wide Technology) already this season so at least he’s playing well.
- Hayden Buckley ($6,600)** – 2nd and T12 here in two appearances. Hasn’t played but in this tier, you just need something to grab onto and I’m going “potential course horse”.
- Stewart Cink ($6,700) – Course Horse for this price! T21-T36-T19-DNP-T20-T32-T36-T42-T37-T20! He won’t win, but if you get a Top 25 for this price, sign me up!
- Ryan Palmer ($6,900)
Longshot(s)
- Austin Eckroat ($7,000)
- Emiliano Grillo ($7,400)
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!