Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches
Ah, the Florida swing! After a brief stop South of the Border, we are now headed to the Sunshine State to begin a stretch where 4 of the next 5 tournaments will be in Florida. That includes The Players in a few weeks. I’m out of the country next week so I’ll do my best to get something in for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but you may be limited to picks on Discord. I’m not sure if I can play in Grand Cayman so I may be limited to what I can reserve before I leave on Tuesday.
The one thing we will see over the next few weeks is, most likely, a lot of volatility in the play. Some guys excel in Florida but, with the difficulty of some of the course, that does always mean “consistently excel”. With the Bear Trap here and Snake Pit at Valspar in a few weeks, there is always trouble lurking that can turn a competitive round into a missed cut.
It’s not a great field this week, but there are some big names. He’s a good player, but when Russell Henley is $10,200 you know it’s not a loaded field this week.
Highlights:
PGA National – Par 70 @ 7,150 yards
Welcome to The Bear Trap! Holes 15-17 at PGA National is one of the more famous three-hole stretches in golf. Not near as famous as Amen Corner, but infamous nonetheless because the tournament can be decided on these three holes on Sunday afternoon.
This course is difficult. There is so much trouble that accuracy off the tee is going to be important. Fairways are narrow, greens are fast (Bermuda), and plenty of water hazards are available for used ball collections.
Par 5 scoring is also important since there are only two of them!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
Play any of them that you like. There are only five guys in this range. I’m not sure any of them are a “must have” and I’m leaning towards a balanced lineup again. Rory obviously could shine but he hasn’t been playing lights out lately – although he did win “The Match” this week.
- Rory McIlroy ($12,200) – $1,500 higher than anyone else. I’ve seen some touting him as the obvious pick to win, but it hasn’t been the big guys winning this year. At this price, I need no less than a Top 10 to justify it – maybe a Top 5.
- Cameron Young ($10,700) – Playing well and did finish Top 20 here the only time he played.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,600) – He’s not playing like he did a couple years prior and, frankly, I look him to bolt to LIV at some point.
- Russell Henley ($10,200) – Good track record here! Hasn’t played since 2021 but made 7 of 8 cuts prior to that – including three Top 10s (one a Win in 2014).
- Tom Kim ($10,100) – Coming off two straight Top 25s, I may be inclined to play him and save $2,100 from using Rory. He doesn’t have the flash or the mystique, but I think I can fill out the rest of my lineup easier.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Eric Cole ($9,900)** – I’m impressed with his play so far this year. One missed cut and a T2 here in his only appearance.
- Shane Lowry ($9,300) – Just getting back to playing here consistently. Never missed a cut here and has a T5 & 2nd in the last two years.
- Keith Mitchell ($9,000)** – Trending in the right direction in his last few events. He’s only missed one cut this season.
- Corey Conners ($9,100) – Not a lot of success here, but only played twice and not since 2020. His game should fit!
- Chris Kirk ($9,400) – A little bit of a course horse play. Win-T7-T25 in the last three years. He has a win this year already. He missed his last cut at Genesis but that was a weird one anyway.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Jake Knapp ($8,400) – Korn Ferry graduate that’s missed one cut this season and won last week. I’m not much for the back-to-back plays but a solid performance is all we need at this price.
- Stephan Jaeger ($8,800)** – T14 last year. He has two T3s in his last 3 events. Play the hot hand while it’s hot!
- Rasmus Hojgaard ($8,500) – Nicolai disappointed last week. Rasmus doesn’t play this tour as much but his current form in Europe is T6-T8-2nd-T11-T11!
- Matthieu Pavon ($8,700) – Going Euro Tour again based on current form. 3rd-Win-T39-T7!
$7,000 to $7,900
- Tom Hoge ($7,900)** – Missed his last 4 cuts here but I doubt he’s entered this tournament playing as well as he is right now. 8th-T17-T6-T56-T17!
- Thorbjorn Olesen ($7,500)** – He faded a little last week after an opening round 66, but I think he’ll fair well here.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600)
- Erik van Rooyen ($7,400)
- Maverick McNealy ($7,100)
Under $7,000
- Davis Thompson ($6,800) – made 9 of 10 cuts. Too good to be priced this low.
- Sami Valimaki ($6,600) – I’ll ride the foreign wave again this week.
- Gary Woodland ($6,500) – He’s not back completely after his issues but he was Top 40 a couple weeks ago. Good course history to help get him back on his game. DNP-T5-DNP-T8-T36-T49-T2-T61.
- Andrew Novak ($5,900)
Longshot(s)
- Carson Young ($6,700) – I don’t know that he outplays Cameron, but at $4,000 less, he doesn’t have to. He can, but he doesn’t have to.
CORE PLAYS (Listing 6 – Maybe play 3):
- Tom Kim ($10,100)
- Stephan Jaeger ($8,800)
- Shane Lowry ($9,300)
- Eric Cole ($9,900)
- Tom Hoge ($7,900)
- Davis Thompson ($6,800)
I’m $2,800 over the cap but you can play around with it and make substitutions!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!