THE MASTERS
I’m glad the first Major is here. I’m getting frustrated with my own DFS performance lately. I got 3 lineups through last week with 6/6 but, damn it, all my guys faded on the weekend!
What can you say about this coming weekend that hasn’t already been said? Hopefully, it’s “one of the subscribers to Daily Ambush hit the MilliMaker.”
This is a week where your lineups will look stacked simply because of the quality of the field.
While sitting at my son’s travel soccer tournament this weekend, I overheard a couple of guys talking about how poor the PGA Tour is now since guys have defected to LIV. The comment was made that the best thing that could happen was for “the LIV guys to win all four Majors”. I disagree and really don’t think it will happen. LIV is unique and, while I don’t fault the guys for taking the money, I find it disconcerting. Really, how much do you hear about Brooks, Rahm, DJ, etc. now that they are on LIV? Do you get to see them play? It’s like they’ve vanished into the scripted WWE version of professional golf. I’m waiting for the Summer Slam version LIV any day now on pay-per-view. I personally think it diminishes it as a sport and turns it into a reality show. But, my opinion doesn’t count and, I’m sure, is probably in the minority.
Highlights: Augusta National
- Par 72 – 7,545 yards
- Wide fairways and fast greens with a lot of undulation
NOTE: The cut this week is the same as last year. TOP 50 AND TIES!!! I remember when it also included anyone with in 10 strokes of the lead, but alas, we are probably now cutting 40% of the field come Saturday.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
Five guys! We must be adding one for Majors.
- Scottie “Lock and Load” Scheffler ($12,100) – the best player on the planet right now! I don’t care if there are guys on LIV winning their 3-round events each week. He’s never been outside of the Top 20 at Augusta and won in 2022. His key? How well does he putt this week?
- Jon Rahm ($11,200) – one of the most recent defectors to LIV, but I think he still has issues with how they do things. But, I guess a truck load of cash allows you to raise the issues but just go along with the directives. Sort of like have a real job where you know the boss is an idiot, but he’s your idiot! Another guy who has never really played Augusta poorly.
- Rory McIlroy ($10,800) – A pretty reasonable price for Rory this week given the fact he’s really in great form. He has missed the cut here in 2 of the last 3 years. However, in the last 10 years, the other 8 attempts have resulted in 7 Top 10s (including 4 Top 5s). Same old, same old for Rory. Will he win the Career Slam? I’d say there’s about a 50/50 shot as long as he can play four solid rounds. He has 5 straight Top 25s even though he falls asleep for at least one round each week. Perfect for LIV except he never knows which round it will be. I hope he doesn’t leave, but I do sense mounting frustration with the PGA Tour.
- Brooks Koepka ($10,200) – Three Top 7s and two missed cuts in his last five trips around Augusta. He’s not killing it on LIV right now either but we all know the correlation between Brooks and Majors.
- Wyndham Clark ($10,000) – He is definitely in play but I don’t think he wins this week.
Unfortunately, this is the countdown week to the tax deadline and, as I said, accountant. I think weeks like this are tougher because the variance is higher due to the pressure at Majors and, the field is so strong it’s hard to “exclude” anyone. These are my picks. Don’t be afraid to go with your gut!
$9,000 to $9,900
(Ranking all the guys in my order of preference)
- Xander Schauffele ($9,900)
- Will Zalatoris ($9,200)
- Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000)
- Juaquin Niemann ($9,600) – he’s probably playing as well or better than anyone on LIV right now. Since November, three wins and outside the Top 10 only once.
- Viktor Hovland ($9,500) – much improved short game which was his cross to bear for a while at places like Augusta.
- Jordan Spieth ($9,300) – better last week but not playing his best. He usually plays well here so…take that for what it’s worth.
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) – usually, I like him at Majors. However, when guys withdraw for “undisclosed reasons” I hesitate.
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,100) – Hell yes! I’m playing him somewhere this week! The concern? First-timers at Augusta don’t typically tear through the course. Fuzzy did it several years ago and, no offense to Mr. Zoeller, but this guy is more talented…physically. Does he have the mental game to manage his way through a Major? I’m hoping for low ownership and a strong performance.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Cameron Smith ($8,500)** – Great price for him!
- Tony Finau ($8,600)
- Collin Morikawa ($8,400) – Not playing great but he seems to find a way every year here. Look for him to right the ship.
- Justin Thomas ($8,700) – at some point, he WILL win here.
- Shane Lowry ($8,000)** – excellent price for a guy that, typically, plays well here. If his recent play is any indication, it’s going to happen again!
$7,000 to $7,900
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,900)** – I’d write something prophetic, but I can’t stop laughing at this price long enough to do it. Top 15!
- Tommy Fleetwood ($7,500)** – Stop it! I can’t breathe! What the hell? I get it! Player pool. Not the elite player! Still, even if I’m wrong, this price makes it worth a shot!
- Patrick Reed ($7,400) – Look, not a LIV fan, but I’m not stupid either. Last six trips to Augusta? T4-T35-T8-T10-T36-WIN!! $7,400 for a great shot at a Top 10-15? BOOM!
- Corey Conners ($7,500)
- Russell Henley ($7,200)
- Si Woo Kim ($7,100)
- Harris English ($7,000) – Last week was his first missed cut.
Under $7,000
- J. T. Poston ($6,800)**
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($6,700) – my hesitation? See Aberg!
- Emiliano Grillo ($6,400)
- Taylor Moore ($6,400)
- Charl Schwartzel ($6,300) – making money on the “No-Cut” LIV tour. Priced appropriately here, but tends to play Augusta well.
- Denny McCarthy ($6,200)
$6,000 & Under
- NO THANK YOU!!!
Longshot(s)
- Denny McCarthy ($6,200) – Aberg is clearly my favorite first-timer with a chance to contend, but at almost $3K less – and the way he’s playing – don’t be surprised if he’s on at least page 2 of the Leader Board.
CORE PLAYS (Listing 6 – Maybe play 3):
Scottie Scheffler is a CORE in every way possible, but I may be excluding him in some instances because of price.
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,100)
- Scottie Scheffler ($12,100)
- Shane Lowry ($8,000)
- Patrick Reed ($7,400)
- Russell Henley ($7,200)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,900)
$1,700 over the cap! I have a couple of $555 entries on FanDuel this week that I won tickets on so I’m hoping for a big payday!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!