THE PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
The season is just speeding by. We are already at Major #2! This should be a fantastic tournament at a fantastic venue! The field is strong since the LIV guys are back for round 2 and some of the PGA Tour guard are playing very well right now – cue Rory! He outdueled Phil Mickelson here in 2014 and he could very well be in contention again given his current form.
This is a course I can relate to since I’ve been fortunate enough to play it from the tips in my late 30s. Thanks Dan Utley!! When I first met my now wife, she had friends in the Louisville area and the husband is a PGA Professional that had played at the University of Louisville and coached at the University of Kentucky. He was also the high school coach for Justin Thomas. Not a bad resume, huh? I shot 86 and was ecstatic! Just to show you how good these guys are, Dan couldn’t make a living on the PGA Tour at that time and he shot EVEN PAR!!!
That comment is, in no way, degrading to Dan. It simply tells you just how damn good these guys are! Which is one reason why I hate the concept behind LIV. You should be paid for playing well, not for what you have done in the past. The “team concept” may be fun, but what incentive to you have to improve if it doesn’t affect your pay. Some guys just have the competitive juices to do that, but I think that is the exception and not the rule. Oh, and I’m not just tagging this statement to golf and PGA/LIV Tours. I feel the same way about the NFL, NBA, and MLB! You should be paid for performing well! Not for just being a “name”!
Anyway, rant over! Majors seem to bring that out in me!
Highlights: Valhalla Golf Club
- Par 71 – 7,609 yards (Trust me! It seemed much longer than that as a 38-year-old amateur)
- Driving distance and long iron play will be key factors
- Bentgrass greens and FAST
- Greens are small and water is in play on 7 holes
NOTE: This is a 156-player field. Top 70 and ties make the cut!! So, roughly ½ of the field should/could make the cut.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
There are eight guys priced in the five-figure range and the separation between one and two is $1,200. I know “Lock and Load” is playing better than anyone else right now, but that’s a hefty price difference. I will NOT avoid Scottie, but with a couple weeks off and a new baby in the house, be prepared for a possible let down. At that price, I think you’ll need at least a Top 5 to pay off value. However, with the pricing, I did do a lineup with Scottie and Rory in it and, frankly, I don’t hate it! Of course, I do have my Longshot in there too and he’s less than $6,000.
- Scottie “Lock and Load” Scheffler ($13,200) – the best player on the planet right now! I don’t like the huge price gap, but I can’t let that be a deterrent from playing him. He will contend, but I don’t think he wins…so that means he will!
- Jon Rahm ($11,400) – I think he may be the one that slips in this Tier under the radar as far as ownership percentages. He didn’t perform well at The Masters and PGA Championships haven’t been his friend. However, having played this course, Rahm should be a good fit.
- Rory McIlroy ($12,000) – Besides “Lock and Load”, he may be playing the best golf in the world right now. I like the fact that he’s won here before and the fact that he’s won his last two events (although one was a team event).
- Ludvig Aberg ($10,500) – Oh Hell No! I’m not forgetting about him. Now, he withdrew with a knee injury last week but I’m hoping it was precautionary and he simply wanted to rest up for this event. Of the names up here – he’s my high-priced Long Shot!
- Others (in order of preference)
Brooks Koepka ($10,800)
Xander Schauffele ($10,900)
Patrick Cantlay ($10,000)
Collin Morikawa ($10,200)
I can’t give you any solid reasons not to play any of these guys! It’s just all gut feeling. Unfortunately, because you do have a salary cap, it’s going to come down to “can you get the guys you want and still have a viable chance of getting 6/6 or 5/6 through to the weekend”? Hopefully, with the input below, it will help!
$9,000 to $9,900 (Ranking all the guys in my order of preference)
- Max Homa ($9,700) – most solid current form in this group. 6 for 6 in made cuts.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($9,600) – did someone mention above that driving distance may be a key? I think so. If this guy can dial in the irons, he will be there on Sunday.
- Cameron Smith ($9,800) – another LIV guy that we don’t get to see play much. However, he typically “shows up and shows out” at Majors and did finish T6 at Augusta.
- Wyndham Clark ($9,500)
- Justin Thomas ($9,300) – he’s not as consistent as I would like to see him right now, but he grew up in Louisville and he’s very familiar with this course.
- Joaquin Niemann ($9,400) – he’s probably playing as well or better than anyone on LIV right now. T22 at The Masters and a T3 and a T7 on LIV since then.
- Cameron Young ($9,000) – he should be a great course fit here. His last two outings have been less than spectacular (T34 & T62) but his distance should be a huge benefit.
- Viktor Hovland ($9,200) – I think this guy wins a Major at some point. Just not this week.
- Will Zalatoris ($9,100) – I’m simply not sure about his health. Still, he’s in play.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Tommy Fleetwood ($8,700)** – Great price for him!
- Tony Finau ($8,300)
- Tyrrell Hatton ($8,200)** – Another LIV guy, but he’s such a bulldog! His current form on LIV is hard to argue with and tough courses for tough guys is a good theme!
- Patrick Reed ($8,000)** – This is one Helluva price for him. He may not win but you can be damn sure he’ll be competing and competing hard. T12 at The Masters.
- Shane Lowry ($8,400) – I can just never rule him out.
LONG SHOT in this Tier: Sahith Theegala ($8,100)
I’m not ruling out Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600), but much like Will Zalatoris, I’m leery about the injury status with the pre-tournament withdrawal last week.
$7,00 to $7,900
- Sepp Straka ($7,500)** – Possibly the best current form of the guys in this tier even though he isn’t the biggest name.
- Jason Day ($7,900) – I can never rule him out but J-Day just isn’t the exciting play that he used to be.
- Si Woo Kim ($7,700) – hasn’t had much luck with PGA Championships but Top 20 in 5 of his last 6 events at this price is hard to argue with.
- Ben An ($7,800)** – Current form? Last two weeks? 3rd and T4!
- Russell Henley ($7,300)
- Alex Noren ($7,200)
- Stephen Jaeger ($7,100)
- Corey Conners ($7,600)
Don’t hate Talor Gooch ($7,600) either. I’m just not sure if he’ll be more focused on winning the PGA or bitching about how badly the LIV Tour is treated. He really needs his World Golf Ranking to feel better I guess.
Under $7,000
- Keith Mitchell ($6,600)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,600)
- Denny McCarthy ($6,300)
- Taylor Moore ($6,200)** – he could have very well been my longshot having missed ZERO cuts this year. Alas, he’s too expensive!
- Harris English ($6,500) – talk about Under-the-Radar! I don’t think he’s been priced above $8K this year and he’s made 11/12 cuts.
$6,000 & Under
- Erik Van Rooyen ($5,700)
- Austin Eckroat ($5,700)
- Mark Hubbard ($5,600) – just makes cuts! Make it this week and value goes through the roof at this price!
- Emiliano Grillo ($5,600) – just too good of a player to be priced this low.
- Jordan L. Smith ($5,500) – if you don’t follow the World Tour, you may not know about him. This could give you an advantage this week.
Longshot(s)
- Sebastian Soderberg ($5,700) – So, who is this guy? Just like Jordan L. Smith, he’s a World Tour player whose recent form is T3-2nd-T2-T21. That’s just the last four. In 10 events he has SIX Top 10s. So, how did I get the Scheffler-McIlroy lineup? If you haven’t figured that out by now, I can’t help you.
CORE PLAYS (Listing 6 – Maybe play 3):
Scottie Scheffler is a CORE if you want, but too many variables this week that aren’t related to golf (time off and new baby). BUT, THIS IS NOT A FADE BY ANY MEANS!!
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,100)
- Sebastian Soderberg ($5,700)
- Rory McIlroy ($12,000)
- Justin Thomas ($9,300)
- Tyrrell Hatton ($8,200)
- Patrick Reed ($8,000)
$2,300 over the cap! I have a FOUR $555 entries on FanDuel this week that I won tickets on so I’m hoping for a big payday – or at least better than I did at The Masters!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!