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The Dongers Club – May 23rd
Happy Thursday Baseball and let me make a pitch real quick for the Man of the Year Award to Time Magazine if they still do that.
Today the Pirates of Pittsburgh are playing their usual home Thursday afternoon game at 12:35 PM. Normally, I would watch this, because, you know, Baseball right? But today, you and I – we HAVE to watch, simply because it’s Paul Skenes. Give the man the award now because he has made the Pirates great … again?
WEATHER
All games play
Woah…. The top two pitchers (Skenes and Wheeler) are the exact same price on FD as they are on DK. The Matrix is real folks.
Lock and load for me on Skenes, I think we ride the train until he has that one crash start. Sure, its chalky, sure, its trendy. No, I’m not fading him. On the flip side, I can pass on Wheeler by going with Heaney because what would be more fitting than a 1-0 Phillies win for Wheeler. Philly has not hit LHP well in the past week, so lets hope that continues to slide in their direction before they head out to Coors tomorrow.
- PAUL SKENES (DK: $9500, FD: 9500)
- ANDREW HEANEY (DK: $6800, FD: $7500)
- ZACK WHEELER (DK: $11,000, FD: $11000)
PADRES vs REDS
San Diego will hammer Montas in the small park and Machado’s HR is just a ticking time bomb away from happening. The HR DUE trend on the model has been white hot and we have just one guy today who fits the statistical profile for it — Mr. Manny.
- Manny Machado – 3B
- Jake Cronenworth – 1B
- Jurickson Profar – OF
CINCINNATI REDS
The stack I think fits really well that most will ignore though is Cincinnati. You need to know Jacob Hurtubise as he is going to be a poor mans Brandon Nimmo in my evaluation and while he may not have the lengthy career that Nimmo has carved out, at least for the short time he is going to be a DFS cornerstone. At $2200 pairing Hurtubise with Elly ($6300) you are going to just play the total bases + steals + runs scored stack combination without chasing homers. Although a cheap Mike Ford HR out of the 3-hole today would not shock me.
- Jacob Hurtubise – OF
- Elly De La Cruz – SS
- Mike Ford – 1B
BRAVES / CUBS
This one smells like and looks like a 13-9 game.
- Ozzie Albies – 2B
- Ronald Acuna – OF
- Cody Bellinger – OF
- Ian Happ – OF
ROCKIES
Joey Estes has given up a lot of foul balls, plenty of hard contact, doesn’t have much velocity for swing and miss. He’s just not good.
- Charlie Blackmon – OF
- Brendan Rodgers – 2B
- Ryan McMahon – 3B
CATCHER
- Cal Raleigh
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Yasmani Grandal
FIRST BASE
Cronenworth is the best play here while Bryant (gut call) and Ford (boom or bust 3 run homer) offer you a contrarian or value pivot.
- Jake Cronenworth
- Mike Ford
- Kris Bryant
SECOND BASE
Ozzie is not leaving Wrigley without his coffee and a homer.
- Ozzie Albies
- … big gap …
- Brendan Rodgers
- Jonathan India
THIRD BASE
- Manny Machado
- Alec Bohm
- Ryan McMahon
SHORTSTOP
I love all three guys here. Yeah, that includes Max Schuemann – you got a problem with that? So logically one says, well, if you like a cheap guy, take the cheap guy and I don’t fault that thinking, however, Oneil is homering, and Elly is stealing everything.
- Oneil Cruz
- Elly De La Cruz – Stealing 5 bases today
- Max Schuemann
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
I would prioritize paying up for a couple infielders and pitching over the white-hot Soto, but there’s also no reason to try and think Castillo will be able to get him out consistently.
- Jurickson Profar
- Jacob Hurtubise
- Luke Raley
- Juan Soto
Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Manny Machado – 3B – San Diego Padres
Chalk / Seems Obvious Homers:
- Ozzie Albies – Braves
- Oneil Cruz – Pirates
Contrarian Home Runs
- Kris Bryant – 1B/OF – Rockies
Value Home Run Call
- Luke Raley – Mariners
TOP BETS
Giants/Pirates under 8.5
Rangers/Phillies under 8.5
Padres/Reds over 9.5
Braves/Cubs over 9
Cubs ML (+100)
PROPS
Luis Gil under 7.5 strikeouts
Ryan Feltner, I hardly know her, under 5.5 strikeouts