The Friday before a Holiday weekend, which means we will start to see the balls flying out of parks as always and tonight is a very nice old school Friday night slate. We have no Cubs afternoon Wrigley game and there are four ‘Turbo’ slate games, which includes Alek Manoah versus the Tigers and MacKenzie Gore on the bump for Washington.
But none of that matters for us here, because we will use those long 25 minutes between slate locks to build our Main slate lineups, thank you DFS sites for thinking of us on this fine Friday where no human being should be doing anything important after 2PM. The slate features Dodgers in Cincinnati, Phillies in Coors, and Premium Pitching. It’s very much a ‘stars and scrubs’ type build to things tonight on the initial glance.
WEATHER
Overall no issues tonight. Expect a possible delay for the Cubs/Cardinals and Orioles/White Sox games, but everything will play.
It is a premium pitching slate with four players over 9k and another six in the 8k range on DraftKings. There are also a couple young arms that I think are overpriced with ceiling limitations but they have a good chance of pitching well in Kyle Harrison, Christian Scott and Christopher Sanchez. The last of which is in Coors Field, so even though he’s only $7200 it’s still a bit steep for a guy I think wants to be a black Dallas Keuchel.
You should IMO have one if not two of these studs, but the premium on hitting obviously makes us want to take a look at the Tier 2 arms.
CORBIN BURNES (DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.6k)
As noted the last time Burnes took the mound, we are about to see him explode into the former Cy Young level Burnes. Eleven strikeouts against the Mariners and now another good K% upside team in the White Sox. Put me down for another 10+ whiffs here and not a single hitter in the South Side lineup has favorable power metrics vs Burnes.
BAILEY OBER (DK: $8300, FD: $8400)
Rangers are worse vs LHP but we’re banking on Ober’s talent himself and the way he has pitched in May (prior to the last start) to be the anchor here. Overall a nearly 40% K rate in the last monthand the Texas 5-9 lineup is very cold right now. It’s also not extremely warm up in Target Field which plays well for the pitching there until another couple weeks when they finally get some good weathe.r
JUSTIN VERLANDER (DK: $8600, FD: $9800)
The old ace comes in at the top of our list and I am the moron who benched Verlander in seasonal this week for two starts from another bum. Verlander’s gonna give us a 20 spot tonight. Good enough to not worry about it and allow your hitting to try and win the slate.
Just missed the cut
- Shota Imanaga
- Zac Gallen (DK: $10.3k, FD: 10.2k) … Facing his former team, yes, but that has been a few years ago now that we’re really not expecting the nerd to get amped up or anything here. The roof is closed and the Marlins are still bringing in Jake Burger, Tim Anderson, Nick Gordon and plenty of strike outs. If the roof was open, I would shy away, however I trust the snakes Ace to be good enough at his top tier price.
- Yu Darvish … As Yu has gotten older he’s still found a way to rattle good teams and teams who are hitting well. His price is low and the upside is good here along with low SP ownership.
- Patrick Sandoval / Logan Allen … Range of outcomes on both is way too high.
LA DODGERS
Yep. Dodgers going into a tiny ballpark with good weather and Graham Ashcraft on the rubber … on a Mookie/Shohei Friday.
- Mookie Betts – SS
- Shohei Ohtani – 1B/OF
- Jason Heyward – OF
ORIOLES
I like both Ryan’s here tonight & you can go 4 Orioles in getting a big HR night where the dewpoint is high. Unlike Burnes, Flexen wont miss bats here and thus the Orioles stack should pay off well.
- Ryan O’Hearn – 1B/OF
- Ryan Mountcastle – 1B
- Colton Cowser – OF
- Gunnar Henderson – SS
BREWERS
We have a nice night in Fenway Park and Boston’s pitching staff has come down to earth of late, including a 5+ ERA out of the pen over the last 10 days. After a trip down in Miami where they didn’t hit, the Brewers lineup has taken a dip in pricing which really makes them favorable tonight and it’s a lineup which has shown HR upside all season
- Christian Yelich – OF
- Willy Adames – SS
- Joey Ortiz – 3B
- Brice Turang – 2B
CATCHER
- JT Realmuto
- Hunter Goodman
- Any value you can find…
FIRST BASE
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Shohei Ohtani
- Ryan O’Hearn
SECOND BASE
Thin position overall and you probably get India leading off for only 3400 (2600 on FD) and Paxton’s struggling of late, so that early confidence isnt gonna be there. Reds going to score early in this one and India is the leader.
- Jonathan India
- Edouard Julien
- David Hamilton
THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm … I really like Bregman here tonight, but that’s on the way contrarian extreme of things. Bohm is the best of the Phils.
- Manny Machado
- Alex Bregman
- Enrique Hernandez
SHORTSTOP
- Mookie Betts
- Edmundo Sosa
- End of list…
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Colton Cowser
- JD Martinez
- Cedric Mullins
- Wilyer Abreu
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jason Heyward
- Alex Kiriloff
- Randal Grichuk
- Stuart Fairchild of Mine
Chairman of The Dongers Club
Shohei Ohtani – 1B/OF – LA Dodgers
Chalk / Seems Obvious Homers:
Mookie Betts, Alec Bohm
Contrarian Home Runs
Alex Bregman, Joey Ortiz
Value Home Run Call
Jason Heyward
TOP BETS
Dodgers/Reds OVER 1.5 runs first inning (+180)
Dodgers/Reds over 10
Diamondbacks ML + Orioles ML + Dodgers ML Parlay
Giants/Mets OVER 7.5
PROPS
Corbin Burnes over 6.5 strikeouts
Kyle Harrison under 4.5 strikeouts
Bailey Ober over 5.5 strikeouts