This is a very balanced early slate for offensive firepower, with the highest total games being a backyard brawl between WV and Pitt and Oklahoma State traveling to Tulsa.
WEST VIRGINIA at PITTSBURGH
So far, so good, for the Pittsburgh offense in 2024 with a big road win at Cincinnati last week taking care of business they should have taken care of. Now it gets tougher with West Virginia coming in and a big rivalry in the Backyard Brawl.
Both Quarterbacks (Greene – 7800 & Holstein – 7300) are just a forced ownership play here by DraftKings at their price given the upside with a QB correlation in CFB DFS. We should see both in high ownership as well.
- Game Stack: Garrett Greene (WVU), Eli Holstein (Pitt), Desmond Reid (Pitt), Konata Mumpfield (Pitt)
OKLAHOMA ST vs TULSA
Here’s what immtediately stands out to me on this game. The Cowboys being heavy road favorites are going to draw heavy ownership vs a below avg Tulsa defense. A little bit of a trap game as OKST hosts Utah next week, but also we have a scenario where if the Cowboys don’t have their heads up their ass and Gordon rushes well you won’t have a high passing game volume. Which means automatically rolling ownership to the #1 and #2 Target guys is once again not where I wanna go. Gimme the big play Rashod Owens once again for WR, but not ahead of Ollie Gordon who has a big bounce back game and scores twice — but at his price, he could be faded once again.
- Oklahoma State: Ollie Gordon, Rashod Owens
- Tulsa Stack: Kirk Francis, LLoyd Avant, Kamdyn Benjamin … Sneaky Value: Zion Steptoe ($4200)
Game of the Day???
OREGON vs OREGON STATE
We have two “RIP Pac-12” rivalry games on this menu today. Washington and Washington State and then right below them Oregon and Oregon State. Both games are good, I mean really good. I think this early in the season to have these rivalry games is gonna produce let it all ride fireworks type displays. Thus, I like the over in both and really in this one.
- Game Stack: Dillon Gabriel, Evan Stewart (Oregon) … Trent Walker (Oregon State)
WASHINGTON STATE vs WASHINGTON
- Game Stack: John Mateer, Kris Hutson (Wash St) … Jonah Coleman, Giles Jcakson (Washington)
- Garrett Greene (WVU – $7800) … The chalk of all the chalk. Greene’s gonna have to do it all today for WVU I fear. The one path in a fade on Greene is that Holstein and the Pitt offense just get on a roll and dominate the time of possession which limits the volume he can get himself rushing on the ground. That’s it. That’s the only path I see.
- Eli Holstein (PITT – $7300) … Holstein has been playing great in the scheme and honestly has a little better floor than Greene.
FAVORITE SLEEPERS
This slate sets up well for someone who likes to take a gamble on low ownership at Quarterback.
- Seth Henigan (MEM – $8000) … We are into week 3 and one of my darling teams to make the CFB Playoff is finally in our lives and finally playing a real …. oh wait, they’ll face Florida State. Well, FSU should be angry and might actually put up some points for once after a break. But this is a VETERAN Memphis team which has had a long time to prepare for what is their only real big test on the way to a potential undefeated season. Yes, I said that. Henigan to Roc Taylor.
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU – $9100) … Generally when you go contrarian you go with a star and Nuss is priced like one but has a slightly less fantasy appeal than Dillon Gabriel, Jalen Milroe and a few others on most slates. Going into the highlight early SEC window game the Tigers will need Nuss if they want to have any shot because I don’t see the rushing game being good. Unfortunately none of the WR options really pair up well here given their prices, so he’s kind of a naked play.
- Kirk Francis (TULSA – $6000)
Welcome to home running backs who are mid-priced and favored week. My kind of week, so which one of these fuckers gets hurt first?
- Jonah Coleman (UW – $6800) … Volume and home RB who is going to score. Take it to the bank as Coleman is the chalk RB1 today. Volume is just gonna be too good.
- Nate Noel (MIZZ – $5600) … BC defense is not going to hold up with allowing just 40 YPG all season long and Missouri is gonna smash on the ground up front.
- Montrell Johnson (UF – $6100) … Another home RB in the mid-range. Facing the Aggies defense is not the best spot to buy into but they can be beat on the ground if anywhere.
- Desmond Reid (PITT – $6400)
ALSO GOTTA LIKE
- Ollie Gordon (OKST – $10,000) … Price is the only limiting factor.
- Mario Anderson (MEM – $6200) … At home, he would rank #1 for Memphis, on the road it’s gonna be Henigan/Roc Taylor on 3rd down getting it done.
- Darius Taylor (Minnesota – $6200) … Another too cheap RB who hasn’t adjusted yet to his expected usage. It’s a deep back field so maybe they go light if this one gets ugly.
- Roc Taylor (MEM – $6500) … Memphis should complete over 60% of their passes vs FSU, they should throw it almost 30 times easily 33% of those will be in the direction of Taylor. Thank me when he finishes with 7 catches, 105 yards & a touchdown
- Konata Mumpfield (PITT – $6000) … Gotta trust the best WR option for Pitt if game stacking this game. Sure, we know that Desmond Reid gets a ton of work out of the back field too, but Mumpfield is 20%+ target share and really doesn’t have any reason to not get there again
- Rashod Owens (OKST – $5500) … Broke this down above. Go back to the Rashod Owens well.
SECOND TIER OPTIONS
Love all these options. Not a bad 4 WR slate.
- Trent Walker (ORST – $4400)
- Kamdyn Benjamin (Tulsa – $5700)
- Theo Wease (MIZZ – $6200)
- Tez Johnson (ORE – $8500) and Evan Stewart (ORE – $6800)
- Preston Fox (WVU – $4500)
POSITION DEPTH RANKED (For S-FLEX/FLEX Purposes)
- RB
- WR
- QB
DraftKings CORE
QB – Garrett Greene
RB – Jonah Coleman
WR – Roc Taylor
WR – Rashod Owens
BETS
- Memphis +6.5
- Pittsburgh ML
- Oregon State +16.5
- Oregon/Oregon State OVER 49.5
- Wash ST/Washington OVER 54