It’s just a regular Sunday.
That’s all I can see when I see this slate today. It reminds me of an early Sunday many years ago where everyone is excited because the NFL is on, but in reality, there isn’t anything special and obvious about this day.
Sure, the Bengals are at the Chiefs but Cincinnati isn’t right at the moment and Kansas City isn’t desperate enough to air it out for 500 yards yet either.
San Francisco without Christian McCaffrey is something we gotta get used too, not just for the 4 weeks he spends on IR, but maybe for a good portion of the season.
Bad teams like Carolina, NY Giants get a chance to maybe look okay, but in the end, they’re still bad.
And of course, over re-action week as we react to what we only saw in week one as our only information. In my mind though, the real over-reaction comes in week 3 when people assume a team who went 2-0 or 0-2 is going to continue that for 17 weeks.
AMBUSH #1: Make Two Players, One Kupp Great Again ….
Fellas, I am in mid-season form with the bad puns right now. Farewell to Puka Nakua, that was fun while it lasted, but it is time to get back to Cooper Kupp to have the same type of resurgent season as what Chris Sale is having in MLB. Even when Puka wasn’t hurt last week (briefly) it was clear the Rams are going back to get the ball over to Kupp quickly with a beat up OL. There’s really no way for Arizona to limit him under 10 catches today and there’s no reason to even consider anyone else as your #1 stud until he is priced like he was a couple years ago. Puka and Cooper is now just Cooper. Make Kupp great again my friends.
KEY PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Cooper Kupp
AMBUSH #1: There’s nothing wrong with a good Burger
I know, you are wondering what the **** am I talking about? But lets say you are out a nice place to eat and trying to decide if you are going with a steak, do you want some terrific fish special for the night or maybe both? But the reality is that it’s not one of those nights where you need to go with a $75+ plate. Maybe it feels wrong to order a well cooked (not well done, just well cooked, big difference) burger from a great spot. Sure, it’ll be 2x what you normally spend on a burger but it will get the job done. That’s this slate.
There’s no need to go out hunting for that team who is gonna “smash” or go off. There’s no need to force a game stack in expecting 60+ points in a wild game. Yes, we can be wrong and both could turn out to be the case — but the data and the analysis on this week says otherwise. It says go down the middle like your tee shot on a 440 yard par 4 to start things off. We won’t be getting birdie, but we sure as hell won’t put ourselves in a position to double bogey it. So, my friends, your lineup build this week is a no stack, no risk, just go balanced, high floor build.
So don’t be afraid to pick average. Pick steady. Pick, Brock Purdy…
My Burger play of the week? Brock Purdy.
AMBUSH #3: Run, Forrest, Run.
So what is the best and smartest path to getting that high floor result? On the ground. Both at QB and in your FLEX position this week we’re leaning on the fact that the NFL is shifting more to a run first league as defenses have finally flipped the switch on forcing offenses to finally be patient and run the ball more.
Every lineup that will be good today is going to have 3 RB in it and I think we see continued high results from the rush first QB as they tend to feel more fresh and riskier with their running while healthy in September.
Lineup Construction Strategy: Play 3 RB
My analysis on Quarterbacks in NFL DFS is often “whatever” because I like to say they don’t really matter. Chances are the “chalk” QB doesn’t out score whoever else you use by that much and the difference in having a 5 FPTS outing at RB vs most everyone else having two 15+ FPTS outings is far more important than the difference between 18 and 13 at Quarterback. That said, two guys I am gonna be okay with in week two were among the higher scoring ones in Jayden Daniels and Anthony Richardson and my analysis on both is below. But consider Quarterback like trying to win an argument with your wife. Eventually, you just say, sure, fine, okay to move on and get it over with.
CORE PLAY
- Brock Purdy (DK: $6100, FD: $7300) … If you are buying into Jordan Mason rushing the ball 28 times on a short week when they just put CMC on IR then you are better served just doing a 16-leg parlay today and hoping for the best. This isn’t to say Mason is a terrible play, but the volume should be through Purdy and when he rushes one in you will thank me.
SECONDARY LINEUP PLAYS
- Jayden Daniels … I get a feeling that he and the Commanders offensive play calling is going to result in him running until he gets killed. Which would be very typical of a QB in Washington. With that in mind and the Giants average defense here, we should get another near 20 FPTS outing
- Anthony Richardson … Much like Jayden, the rushing production is going to continue early in the season. I’m not a huge fan of this game turning into a shootout where possessions are fast and back and forth — but if Richardson is gonna do anything in his career its coming early in the season before he (like Daniels) dies.
CORE PLAYS
CORE PLAYS- ISIAH PACHECO (DK: $6900, FD: $7400) … Did anyone watch the Bengals suck vs the Patriots? Not only was their offense bad, they couldn’t tackle Stevenson between the tackles one bit. I was of the belief before the season that Mahomes would just go selfish mode and throw 4 x touchdowns each week – but the Pacheco dominance game here is too clearly the path for them.
- RHAMONDRE STEVENSON (DK: $6200, FD: $6900) … Speaking of Stevenson – there’s very little reason to think he won’t keep his role as #1 everything for New England. They have a short week coming up after this game but a rookie HC is likely to ignore that and just do what he can to win this game. Lots of touches here at home vs a mediocre rush defense.
SECONDARY PLAYS
- TYJAE SPEARS (DK: $5000, FD: $5600) … Classic case of NFL DFS touting right here. After Week 1 someone (yes, including me sometimes) will come along and talk about what happened in week 1 is clearly a sign of what to expect in week 2. Well, the Niners just had Jordan Mason run all over the Jets in week one — but Tyjae Spears cannot do this after the Titans showed no ability to move the ball in the air last week? Why wouldn’t Spears for $5k be in your CORE mix this week at home? Because of Mr. I never do it two weeks in a row Tony Pollard? C’mon.
- DEVIN SINGELTARY (DK: $5700, FD: $6100) … The more I look, the more I like this game. There’s gonna be offense on both sides, maybe some defensive scores as well. SIngeltary is the volume RB that people want from Jordan Mason.
ALSO DONT MIND
- JK Dobbins, David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor
CORE PLAYS
- COOPER KUPP (DK: $7600, FD: $7700) … Welcome back to Kupp every week season. Buy here while he is still under 9k.
- GARRETT WILSON (DK: $7100, FD: $8100) … If we learned anything from the Jets so far, its that they are what we think they are on offense. 50% Breece Hall and 50% Garrett Wilson. Much like Mr. Kupp, this is a get me all that volume and ride the floor spot.
- BRANDON AIYUK (DK: $6500, FD: $7000) … Nothing against Deebo, who could score on one of his 12 yard shovel pass plays but Aiyuk is the one that consistently can eat up the Vikings secondary today. If there is one stack today, it’s San Francisco without Jordan Mason, but I would just be cautious and use only Purdy-Aiyuk.
SECONDARY / VALUE PLAYS
With the way RB is today, you really don’t have to go too much intno this space, but one key sub 5k option on DK is necessary.
- DARIUS SLAYTON (DK: $4100, FD: $4800) … Also like Malik Nabers
- RASHOD BATEMAN (DK: $3900, FD: $4800)
- BRIAN THOMAS (DK: $4800, FD: $5800)
FAVORITE SLEEPER
- DAVANTE ADAMS (DK: $7300, FD: $7100) … On any other week where I could maybe lean more on being very contrarian then Adams would rank much higher. But with Kupp and Wilson he has to be that secondary lineup/wild-card pick. I love da Raida’s not only to cover but to have a lead late scoring 20+ points in Baltimore and that means Adams has 100 yards and a touchdown if they do.
CORE PLAY
- GREG DULCICH (DK: $2900, FD: $4600) … Expect a little more time for Bo Nix to pass today, but also more play calls to get the ball out quickly underneath to Dulcich. Just 3 targets in week one, that will double in week 2 and without question is the first pass attempt of the game for Nix. Great spot to go cheap this week to pay up at WR.
SECONDARY PLAYS
- SAM LAPORTA (DK: $6300, FD: $7900)
- BROCK BOWERS (DK: $4400, FD: $5300)
- TAYSOM HILL (DK: 3900, FD: $5200)
Picking a defense this week feels tougher than last week but I must admit a good portion of that is me feeling the pressure to find one who is going to score. There’s a bunch who look just good enough and given the way I feel about this week playing out (quiet/steady as they go) then that’s probably good enough.
CORE PLAY
- DENVER BRONCOS (DK: $2800, FD: $3400)
SECONDARY PLAYS
- LA CHARGERS (DK: $3400, FD: $4400)
- WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (DK: $3000, FD: $3800) … This is a play for a miracle TD spot
BETTING CARD
- Broncos ML
- Raiders +9.5 + Raiders ML (0.5 unit)
- Tampa Bay +7.5
- Patriots +3.5
Favorite Totals:
- Saints/Cowboys under 47
- Giants/Washington over 43
CORE (All Sites)
- QB – Brock Purdy
- RB – Isiah Pacheco
- WR – Cooper Kupp
- DST – Denver Broncos