Every year I say to myself before the NFL season that I am going to write less on the NFL Ambush article and then every week I open my previous weeks article to copy the template and I realize that I must have had some serious shit in my coffee the week before because I just went on and on producing endless content that’s not precise and to the point.
Sorry.
So let’s get back on track and the first way to do that is to remove games from the vision. These are the games that I really have ZERO interest in for a DFS standpoint.
- Packers at Titans
- Chargers at Steelers
- Giants at Browns
- Panthers at Raiders
- Niners at Rams — There’s value here due to all the injuries, so if thats the play, then sure.
AMBUSH PLAY #1: The Top Game
This weeks top games align more with the totals than they do with some of the hype or noise you might here. Starting things off is the shootout in the desert between the Lions (Jared Goff) and Cardinals (Kyler Murray). Words I never though we would utter, but you’ve got elite WR potential on both sides with the definite possibility of a QB-RB-WR stack. But what also peaks my interest here is that we have dueling near elite level TE’s between Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride. McBride had a good game last week but LaPorta has been all too quiet this season. I want a ton of Lions in this game, which catapults Goff up as my top QB on the slate and I’ll hope for the best between ASB, LaPorta, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game.
- Best Game: Lions at Cardinals
- Second Best Game: Texans at Vikings
- Sleeper Game of the Week: Bears at Colts
AMBUSH PLAY #2: Avoiding the Cheese
As a Saints fan it would be a fitting twist to have them completely go off at low ownership every week while I continue to fade them and I will admit that I’ll have an extra homer lineup out there today but I am avoiding eating the cheese on this game. I don’t doubt what our eyes have shown us with the Saints offense through two weeks, but I have a hard time trusting that Philadelphia is going to do enough to make this a shootout game & there’s gonna be a lot of running the ball from both sides. Expect a vulture touchdown game all around and outside of Barkley and my longshot Saints TD call, I’m avoiding stacking up this game on a main lineup.
- Avoiding the over hype on Eagles/Saints & Ravens/Cowboys
AMBUSH PLAY #3: Return of the Diggs
I thought by Sunday morning this would change but it clearly has not. Yes, Houston has a ton of WR options but with Joe Mixon out I bump up the passing game even more and why are we not locking in Diggs in his return to Minnesota? Take the the free square here.
- Diggs Anytime Touchdown and good low ownership DFS play
CORE PLAY
JARED GOFF (DK: 6500 / FD: 7500) … I like quite a few Quarterbacks this week, to include some who have some rushing pluses associated with them in the second tier, but I have no stronger feeling about a 3+ TD passing game than what Jared Goff should get today.
SECONDARY LINEUP PLAYS
- CJ STROUD
- CALEB WILLIAMS
- KYLER MURRAY
CORE PLAYS
CORE PLAYSJORDAN MASON (DK: 6200 / FD: 8300) … Alright, so I kinda lied above, this is one guy that’s not extreme value in this game that we take a honest self evaluation with and plug in. Still underpriced and with additional guys getting hurt for the Niners his volume shall remain consistent
ZAMIR WHITE (DK: 5500 / FD: 6000) … Last week was the Bowers/Adams show. This week is the ground game back at home (first home game) for the Raiders. Love the price on White and could argue that he’s a better play at sub 15% ownership than Jordan Mason.
SECONDARY PLAYS
- SAQUON BARKLEY
- JAHMYR GIBBS
ALSO DONT MIND
- James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, D’Andre Swift
CORE PLAYS
STEFON DIGGS … Uhhhh. Hello? Buehler? Anyone? Is this thing on? How is this not the most obvious pick of the week? The Vikings secondary is an area we’re being respectful of through two weeks but in comes one of the deepest WR rooms in the league and of course, I think there’s some Diggs/Minnesota correlation here, no? Anyone? Sub 10% owned? Sure, my gut says we might get a Tank Dell game, but I gotta lean on the Diggs narrative.
D.J. MOORE (DK: 6700 / FD: 6500) … DJ Moore on another fast track this week (faster arguably) after he was seen annoyed with Caleb Williams last week. There will be an early shot play to Moore and many Moore after that….
AMON-RA ST. BROWN (DK: 8200 / FD: 9100) … I had ASB #1 earlier in the week but my focus is shifting to LaPorta as the #1 pairing option with Goff and maybe rolling Jameson or Gibbs as the 2nd leg in the passing game. It’s that or ASB by himself.
SECOND TIER & VALUE PLAYS
- JAMESON WILLIAMS
- CEEDEE LAMB
- GREG DORTCH … Like Harrison obviously as well, but as the label above says — this is the value tier. Dortch is questionable, but I expect him to go.
- JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA
FAVORITE SLEEPERS
- JRDAN WHITTINGTON
- MASON TIPTON … You are like, who the fuck is this guy? And I’m over here with my feet up reminding you who introduced everyone in DFS/Fantasy to Sheed. Tipton is almost as fast and is going to score on a gadget type play.
CORE PLAY
SAM LaPORTA (DK: 6000 / FD: 7000) … Has not really had that key focus game yet and thus the ownership is completely avoiding him on a slate where everyone’s darlings (on DK) are not playing (Kelce/Pitts … and yeah, me with Taysom Hill)
SECONDARY PLAYS
- Mark Andrews
- Trey McBride
- Greg Dulcich
CORE PLAY
Tampa Bay Bucs (DK: 3000 / FD: $4700) … I don’t think there is more of a “Safe” Defensive pick than this one. Sure, Denver is gonna get it turned on at some point but the math doesn’t add up to the Bucs defense hurting you because they’ve got a pretty solid floor here.
SECONDARY PLAYS
- NY Giants & Cleveland Browns – Not just attacking what is a perceived low scoring game, but attacking the potential that both QB take sacks or turn it over a couple of times.
- LA Chargers
BETTING CARD
Kinda light today…
- Chargers ML
- Rams +7 … Too many points to not take at home in a divisional game this early in the year.
Favorite Totals:
- Ravens / Cowboys UNDER 49
- Bears / Colts OVER 42
CORE (All Sites)
Jared Goff
Zamir White
Stefon Diggs
Sam LaPorta