Overall for a College Football fan this is one of the best weekends you’ll see all year long. For DFS though it’s kinda a mediocre early/main slate today which does lean towards value in going with a contrarian game stack if you are comfortable avoiding chalk.
Georgia Tech at North Carolina
Simple spot to run a QB-WR stack with a player coming back on the other side as your anchor build this week. Which as I write this, tells me that is the proper build for this slate and I do recall that there is one week a year, almost every year, where that is the OPTIMAL build and it doesn’t really matter which game you build it around.
The build here has to be Haynes King to Malik Rutherford for Georgia Tech, exploiting a UNC pass defense which hasn’t slowed many down unless the other QB makes an early pick six. The run it back decision is tough, but Bryson Nesbit ($3500) is a great value where you could use value at the WR spot this week.
Cincinnati at UCF
This game is a go despite the Hurricane coming through earlier in the week and I dont think that UCF’s practice routine got wrecked too badly. There’s two STUD WR we can pick from here between Henderson and Hudson, have one or both as one offs.
While I would not be shocked to see Jalen Milroe go scorched earth on South Carolina, I am not going to go island QB for that much $. Nor do I trust Cade Klub me in the dick. It is probably a 1 QB week unless you pair 2 with WR and run it backs but in different games. A build I really like this week.
- Haynes King (Georgia Tech – $8100) … The clear #1 for me which tells you how little I love the QB spot on this slate.
- Michael Hawkins (Oklahoma – $7200) … I do see him passing a TD but there are no OU WR really left here. Rushing upside in a game where the tempo should be solid is a nice floor to have as a 2nd QB
- Drew Allar (Penn State – $7800) … My gut feeling is this game has lots of juice.
RB is very good and very top heavy.
- Kaleb Johnson (Iowa – $8300) … It’s a little uneasy to look at an Iowa game and think “I gotta get some piece of this game”, but it has all the feels of Vegas cleaning up on all the Iowa under bettors. When you are running as well as Kaleb Johnson is right now you just ride him over and over and over. I don’t see Washington slowing down a 30+ train here for DK FPTS.
- Nicholas Singleton (Penn State – $7000) … Have to love this game and any time Penn State can get out on the road in a tempo up game you get them at nice value Yes, 7k for Singleton given how bad USC rush defense has been is value
- Phil Mafah (Clemson – $6500) … Do we trust Clemson? Do we?
Honorable Mention: Desmond Reid, Kyle Monangai, RJ Harvey
- Malik Rutherford (Georgia Tech – $5300) and Eric Singleton (Georgia Tech – $5500) … I go with Rutherford but there’s no heavy lean one way or the other here.
- Xzavier Henderson (Cincinnati – $7100) … This is likely the highest I would pay up for WR on this slate just to ensure good RB and a balanced build. UCF allows nearly 70% completion rate on the year and has given up 402 passing YPG in recent games.
- Tyler Warren (Penn State – $5300) … My day is probably going to live and die with the decision between Warren and Singleton and I honestly should probably just play both. He is standing out on my model and as I kinda hinted at above, Penn State is finally getting into an environment where they gotta push the tempo up more. He should get a redzone touchdown or two in this one.
- Bryson Nesbit (North Carolina – $3500) .. Terrific Value
Honorable Mention: Antonio Williams (5k is a steal tbh), Kobe Hudson (UCF), Isiah Bond (Texas)
POSITION DEPTH RANKED (For S-FLEX/FLEX Purposes)
RB, WR, QB
DRAFTKINGS CORE
QB: Haynes King
RB: Kaleb Johnson
WR: Malik Rutherford
WR: Bryson Nesbit
BETS
Iowa -2.5 (Favorite bet of the year)
Wake Forrest +20.5
GT/UNC over 59
Texas/Oklahoma over 49.5
USC +5 but Penn State wins