My God, the first glance on this slate and it wants to make you vomit as if you are on a hangover from the prior weekend.
But, my friends, upon further review, we have some actually competitive football on the slate this weekend as CFB will not disappoint us. Nope, not in October.
A 12 game slate kicks things off this week, lets roll …
BEST SNEAKY GAME
Auburn at Missouri: Been doing this long enough in my life that sometimes I have the wherewithal to keep my sanity and see the forest through the trees — or insert whatever crappy cliche you want to use here. My point is that when the instinct and the gut keep coming back to the same place, you ride it. The instinct and gut on this slate is that all the games look the same and yet there are a few which are going to have the right energy to them that we want to focus on those spots. An SEC battle of the secondary Tigers is where I go as an under achieving Missouri Offense had a fantastic “get right” beat down of UMASS last week and now comes back home to get a middle of the road Pass Defense and Brady Cook is going to light them up. I love the Missouri side much like I did Iowa last week — only its the Luther Burden III low owned pay up that we ride.
- STACK: Cook, Burden, Hunter
SECONDARY GAMES
- Baylor at Texas Tech: Red Raiders at home off a BYE. Should smash.
- Miami at Louisville: I like a Cardinals upset, which would be Isaac Brown and the defense, but Cam Ward is actually a nice Heisman contrarian pay up spot as a naked S-Flex option
- USC at Maryland
Brady Cook (Missouri – $7100) … Looks like Nate Noel is a go for the Tigers out of the backfield, but I am still going to hitch my wagon here to the passing which also comes with Cook rushing a little bit himself.
Cam Ward (Miami – $10,800) … This would be a play him naked and let it ride scenario.
RANKING THE REST …
- Sawyer Robinson (Baylor)
- Noah Fifita (Arizona)
Jarquez Hunter (Auburn – $5100) … You can either ride with heavy pay up chalk this week on Brooks, Sampson, Marks and Mafah or go with the correlation build and one guy that I LOVE in that scenario is Jarquez Hunter. A game I see having a ton of offense bodes well for a RB under 6k when you get that one 20 yard rush for a touchdown to secure a solid floor game. Hunter’s averaging 80+ rush yards per game and the Missouri defense has been more of a funnel in that way. I expect an easy 20 FPTS today.
Tahj Brooks (Texas Tech – $8400) … Among the pay up guys that are chalky it’s hard to hate both Brooks and Mafah, except Mafah is a Clemson Tiger and well, screw Clemson. As long as Texas Tech is running him into the ground (24 carries per game) we ride it & he is coming off a BYE as well so the rest + volume should align perfectly.
RANKING THE REST …
- Isaac Brown (Louisville – $5600)
- Roman Hemby (Maryland – $5500)
- Dylan Sampson (Tennessee – $8700)
- Phil Mafah (Clemson – $7500)
Luther Burden III (Missouri – $8100) … If ya buy into good players in low ownership spots then Luther Burden scoring twice is your guy. If you want the safer, I order my steak well done play, it’s Theo Wease. I’m playing Burden between the two. On a main lineup it’s hard the way the value is this week, but this is my favorite sneaky game of the day.
Elijah Sarratt (Indiana – $5200) … I dont care who you are facing, you get 8+ targets a game against a team who has only given up passing touchdowns and are 5200 at home while being chalky? As must play as we get on this slate. My pivot’s are paying up this week not on the value chalk as everyone is being told who to play simply based on ownership. You can avoid the sheep elsewhere, dont avoid them here.
Dymere Miller (Rutgers – $4,000) … With opponents completing over 70% of passes vs UCLA, you and I could probably go in and haul in 5 balls tihs week for Rutgers.
BEST OF THE REST
- Hal Presley (Baylor) … Terrible price here
- Zakhari Franklin (Illinois)
- Jimmy Horn (Colorado)
OTHER STUDS & VALUE
Tai Felton (Maryland – $8900) … Just remember who it was that put you on to Felton back in Week 1 when he was sub 5% owned and now here we are with him $3k more and against a USC defense which has given up nearly a 70% completion rate on the season while drawing over 30% of the Maryland passing targets. Sure, it’s a hefty price but there’s value here and we don’t need a ton of points from the WR3 options today so getting the most out of WR is imperative. I’ve been on this earth long enough to know a late Saturday early evening over in October while you are going out to dinner when I see one and Tai Felton is gonna catch a 27 yarder from left to right across your neighborhood bar TV late in the 4th Quarter to give the Turtle the win.
Logan Loya (UCLA – $3200) … This really just appears like a mistake to not price up someone who has 10 catches and 102 yards with a tuddy over the last two weeks for the Bruins.
POSITION DEPTH RANKED (For S-FLEX/FLEX Purposes)
You are going to see almost every lineup out there with a ton of pay up and pay down builds. Studs and duds gallore, which is hard dto ignore given the depth at both tiers, but if you wanna be one of those contrarian suckers you go balanced build.
WR, RB, QB
DRAFTKINGS CORE
QB Brady Cook
RB Tahj Brooks
RB Jarquez Hunter
WR Luther Burden III
WR Elijah Sarratt
WR Hal Presley
FLEX Dymere Miller
S-FLEX: $9,000 left over
BETS
Auburn/Missouri OVER 51.5
Missouri -4.5
Maryland +7
Louisville ML
Baylor/Texas Tech OVER 55.5