This is honestly the type of NFL DFS slate I have done well with in the past. I’m not really coming in with any clear cut biases that I’ve seen leading up to the games all week and am just letting these last second Sunday morning thoughts come to me on these games. Lets hope for no injuries today.
TOP GAMES OF THE WEEK
- Panthers at Commanders
- Seahawks at Falcons
- Chiefs at 49ers
BEST CONTRARIAN GAME
- Texans at Packers: This one is where I am putting the marbles today, more so on the Houston side.
- CJ Stroud (DK: $7100, FD: $8400) … Go contrarian kind of week on the Quarterback spot. It’s also clearly a pay up or go Geno Smith week here as well. Without Nico Collins I can understand not expecting more than 3 TD from Stroud, but you will for sure get 2 here as this is a nice sneaky game in warm Lambeau field today.
- Geno Smith (DK: $5800, FD: $7600) … Hey, you a cash game player? Do you fear your chicken being under cooked? Do you put down the paper on the toilet when going to a public restroom? Have you had your COVID shot? Well, my friend. Geno Smith vs the Falcons is for you.
ALSO LIKE
- Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold
- DeVon Achane (DK: $6700, FD: $6900) … Remember this guy? Remember when Miami was all the rage in their running game? Well, they’ve got speed and the Colts do not. I mean, literally, EJ Speed, their linebacker is not playing today. How do you not ride the speed of the Dolphins? (Sarcasm folks). None the less, love this low ownership spot on a fast track.
- Brian Robinson Jr. (DK: $6400, DK: $8000) … I am putting my faith in that Robinson’s knee will be perfectly good for him to get 15+ carries today and more specifically the goal line work. Carolina gives up rushing TD’s every single week. Much better price on DraftKings.
- Josh Jacobs (DK: $6400, FD: $7300) … Run it back option in the GB/HOU game.
- Chuba Hubbard (DK: $6500, FD: $7400) … Probably a good Dalton game today, but it could lean into Hubbard getting RZ work as well which pays off. I am old enough to remember the time Tim Biakabatuka had 3 rushing touchdowns against the Redskins and then got benched in the second half leading to Carolina losing. Hilarious shit. BTW. Tim Biakabatuka … FROM???
ALSO LIKE
- Jahmyr Gibbs – I can project the Lions having to throw to their backs a ton today
- Jordan Mason
- Jordan Addison (DK: $5600, FD: $6300) … Without Hutchinson there should be a little extra time for the Vikings to go deep and a slight bump for Addison. Detroit’s still giving up the most receptions to WR among any team in the league. So both Jetta and Addison should have solid games. I prefer a balanced build this week, so Addison is the lean.
- DK Metcalf (DK: $6800, FD: $8100) … While the balance of targets in Seattle has been balanced among their 3 WR, I still gotta go with the big man here. He hasn’t been shy about letting Geno know he wants the ball & three straight games without a touchdown leads me to believe he’ll be getting the first one today.
- Tank Dell (DK: $6500, FD: $7000) … Houston. It’s Houston my friends. I think most see Texans at Packers and think — oh, a Dome team in Lambeau? Nah, it’s gonna be warm today and this is going to feel like a Big 10 game for CJ Stroud lighting it up. While the Packers historically have been known as a team that yields rushing yards and not passing yards, they’re vulnerable to some big plays and without Nico Collins that should lean more on Dell while Diggs gets the Jiaire treatment.
OTHER WR TO CONSIDER
- Amari Cooper
- Jayden Reed
- AJ Brown — If I am wrong on the Eagles/Giants game, it means Brown went off for 200 yards.
- Mecole Hardman (Value)
- Jonathan Mingo (Value Punt)
- Kyle Pitts (DK: $4500, FD: $5900) … I don’t want to talk about it.
- Sam LaPorta (DK: $5300, FD: $6500) … TE and RB vs Minnesota. That’s gonna be the way the Lions do anything today.
- George Kittle (DK: $6000, FD: $7500) … Wouldn’t love paying that price tag on FD, just because Kittle is never really a GO OFF guy, but for a floor DK play he’s gotta be liked against the Chiefs 32nd ranked DEF vs TE.
OTHER OPTIONS
- Mo Allie Cox … Is a Mo Allie Cox game still a thing?
- David Njoku
- GIANTS (DK: $2500, FD: $3200) … It’s mostly mental with the Eagles in terms of their struggles and so if you aren’t going to play Barkley or Hurts or any of their offensive skill position guys (like me) then why not the Giants for cheap here? I’m not saying they are the more talented team, but in terms of what our eyes are telling us, they can handle whatever the Eagles are trying to do.
- BILLS (DK: $3500, FD: $5000) … Massive price jump obviously from the G-Men. But the far more logical pick.
Other teams I kinda like:
- Bengals (Just feels gross)
- Dolphins
DFS CORE
CJ Stroud
DeVone Achane
Tank Dell
Kyle Pitts
BETTING CARD
Texans +3 / Texans ML
Minnesota ML
Eagles/Giants UNDER 42.5
Dolphins +3