As I glance over the set of games this week, trying to determine the path to building a MAIN lineup I kept finding myself with a consistent assessment on the games.
They’re all the same, and they’re all on the lower scoring side. Except there will be that one game, the one out of nowhere shootout that is mostly low owned from a stack perspective, but winds up winning the multi-entry contests.
The ‘Homer’ in me wants to say that it’s the Falcons vs Saints. It checks all the boxes.
- Two defenses that have not gotten much pressure on the QB
- One team just fired HC, which the players wanted and might try to have their ‘Super Bowl’ game today.
- The other team has healthy offensive weapons
- Veteran QB’s capable of being “on” any given week, even though most of the time, they’re average.
- Indoors. 1PM. Just feels right…
The games which should produce good results and are the CORE spots for me in a non game stack scenario are as follows
- Buffalo at Indianapolis
- Pittsburgh at Washington
- NY Jets at Arizona
For the top upset today, I have the Broncos over the Chiefs.
JOSH ALLEN (DK: 7700, FD: 9200)
I don’t like much at Quarterback this week and I don’t think the Bills are an automatic win. I do think, however, they’ll be involved in a very competitive game and one they need to use Allen’s legs and arm only to produce. Gimme the leagues MVP right now.
DEREK CARR (DK: 5300, FD: 6700)
Alot might be said that Carr “lost his Coach”, but, really, it was more the other direction. The change in the coaching for New Orleans will actually energize the defense more than the offense, but that defensive energy also correlates over into Carr, Kamara and Hill being the three man show on offense as veterans to get things done. Sure, he has absolute SHIT at WR for options. Guess what, you think he’s gonna throw to anyone not numbered 41, 7 and 83? I don’t think so either. But he can feast off the Falcons slow LB and weak pass rush to post a pretty good score if you pay down at QB
Expected chalk: Brock Purdy
Expected Chalk: Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Breece Hall
I am starting with the expected chalk here. Of course I like Kamara and while he normally is someone you want a low ownership, he’s a pretty safe bet for a good floor. In any shootout in this game he has to be in lineups…. No thank you for Aaron Jones for me and Hall is risky, so he’s not in my top 2 (after AK41).
MY TOP TWO
JONATHAN TAYLOR (DK: 7500, FD: 8000)
After facing a top 5 rush defense last Sunday Night, Taylor is back at home and against a middle of the road Bills defense vs the rush. Flacco’s also been a benefit for him to catch a few passes & I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a screen pass TD for JT today too. He is my #1 back.
NAJEE HARRIS (DK: 6200, FD: 7100)
Congrats to Washington on getting an ELITE CB in Marshon Lattimore – who if he can ever get motivated again to stay healthy is going to have a long career still left in this league. But he won’t play this week and Washington is still bottom third against the rush. Harris comes in off three straight 100+ rush games and off a BYE, the Steelers are poised to come out physical & rested to give Washington a good test today. Love him for this price.
ALSO LIKE, BUT WITH RISK
J.K. DOBBINS (DK: 7200, FD: 7300)
We hear non stop in NFL DFS about game-flow or game-theory with regards to running backs and who to play. Well, this is one of those that isn’t popping off as a high ownership play either. We all expect the Chargers to win this game, we expect them to stiffle the Titans offense and the Chargers are not gonna just air it out non stop. Dobbins has shown he can bust one inside the 40 often this season and I think he scores today.
BREECE HALL (DK: 7600, FD: 8200)
Figure out the Jets today and you probably can figure out a winning lineup. They’ve been bad and vastly overrated all season long and Arizona has pulled out some magic tricks defensively of late, but neither is enough to make me think they can’t get 3 touchdowns and a big chunk of yards in this game. Problem is you have four legit options (well, five) that can produce.
An absolute cesspool at WR this week. 
COURTLAND SUTTON (DK: 5600, FD: 6600)
Sutton had a 0 on the target sheet three weeks back and immediately Sean Payton and Bo Nix have fixed that with back to back 10+ target and 100+ yard games. It’s going to be more of that and he is still priced below Josh Downs, Darnell Mooney, DJ “Im out of here” Moore and other popular guys that just don’t make the same level of sense.
KHALIL SHAKIR (DK: 6000, FD: 6200)
A healthy Amari Cooper would have made this list instead, but he remains questionable and so I think that limits him enough to let Shakir shine. Buffalo is in a classic ‘look ahead’ spot with the Chiefs on deck next week & they could find themselves in a big time battle. I have this game ranked as one of the three best today and so I gotta have the best WR in that scenario.
GARRETT WILSON (DK: 7200, FD: 7900)
Worth the chance that Rodgers tries to get him a ton of work in this spot while Adams draws coverage to help him out.
DARNELL MOONEY (DK: 6500, FD: 7500)
I don’t know why folks are acting like the Saints “lost” Marshon Lattimore for this game. He was not going to play and so there’s no real boost here with Mooney other than the roster is still built for physicality and not speed and Mooney should exploit the Saints secondary with or without Drake London playing.
THE OTHERS POOL
- Xavier Worthy (KC)
- Ricky Pearsall (SF) – Good value
- Noah Brown (WSH)
- Amon-Ra’s Brother (NO)
TAYSOM HILL
Denver Broncos: Have the Chiefs been dominant this season on offense? Simple answer is NO. Is Denver a bad defense? Also, no. This is the Chiefs first home game to start at Noon since 2022. That’s a big deal folks. I really think they’ll be flat and be lucky to score 20 points today. Throw in a few sacks, a turnover and we’re getting by with a nice cheap Defense.
LA Chargers: The most expensive defense on the board, but welcoming in a Titans offense that also isn’t gonna have a good chance of going over 20. They’re playing well of late on defense as well and should keep that up today.
New Orleans Saints: Saints. Falcons. Defenses scoring.
Philadelphia Eagles: Speaking of Defenses Scoring
DFS CORE
QB Josh Allen
RB Jonathan Taylor
WR Courtland Sutton
TE Taysom Hill
BETTING CARD
Falcons/Saints OVER 46.5 / Saints ML
Colts +4
Broncos +7.5
Patriots +6