There are no weather issues this week and the clear narrative this week is about all the value Running Backs. You can definitely make a strong case to just ride value RB chalk and then pay up around that this week and I don’t entirely hate the idea.
GAME I WANT TO BE GOOD
Seattle at Arizona: The Seahawks have been stout defensively over the last month and are one of the better teams when going on the road outside of a MNF game at Detroit which feels like years ago at this point. But these two teams just met two weeks ago and it was 16-6, a clear under. Law of averages kinda points to this one out in the desert being a sneaky shootout with DK Metcalf having one of his big games while JSN has emerged as the primary #1 in recent weeks.
FAREWELL TE EASY BUTTON, HELLO NEW ONE
No Taysom Hill for the rest of the season means I gotta do some damn Tight End research? What kinda nonsense is this? So we quickly just shift to the next best thing. Brock Bowers. Bowers going into Tampa will do. Sure, he’s chalky, but I don’t really give a damn as it’s only $400 more than Trey McBride in a good game. TE is pretty good overall this week, but Bowers is a walking 20 point game.
- Geno Smith (DK: $5800, FD: $7400)
- Sam Darnold (DK: $6100, FD: $7600)
- Will Levis (DK: $5000, FD: $6600)
It is most definitely value RB week with plenty of big name guys going down.
MY TOP TWO
- Bucky Irving (DK: $6600, FD: $7700) … Still underpriced and still an elite back not getting the credit he deserves. Tampa is screaming to us what they want to be. A two back team and Irving should be an 8k guy. I am not that concerned about the hip flaring up that much.
- James Cook (DK: $7400, FD: $8500) … Guys, the Rams CANNOT stop the run. It’s really bad and any team going up against them is going to be getting 100 yard rushing games. I smell a 3 TD spot coming from Cook and one for sure is coming through the air.
THE MOST POPULAR VALUE FILL INS
- Isaac Guerendo (DK: $5400, FD: $5200) … Feels like a trap but that’s just me.
- Zach Charbonnet (DK: $4800, FD: $5300) … Either Charbs or Metcalf has a big day today.
- Braelon Allen (DK: $5000, FD: $5200) … Not so much a fill in but no competition. Again, I think Jets get run out of the building so buyer beware.
FAVORITE STUDS
- Saquon Barkley (DK: $9000, FD: $10,000) … With the value elsewhere at RB, it’s kinda hard to say anything bad about someone chasing that MVP and facing arguably the worst rush defense in the league. Don’t sleep on the Eagles passing game though.
- DeVon Achane (DK: $8200, FD: $8700) … Love Achane, just wish he was a little cheaper. Jets could be in major tank mode today down in South Beach.
MY SLEEPER
- Kendre Miller (DK: $4000, FD: $4000) … Miller was actually NOT hurt when the Saints put him on IR and the hatred which Dennis Allen had for him cannot be understated. He should pick up all the Taysom Hill rushes and probably more today. Although Kamara has always had big games in New York, I think this is a prime spot for the Saints to lean on Miller more to see what they really have.
FAVORITE OPTIONS
- DK Metcalf (DK: $6200, FD: $7600) … JSN is fine as well in a full game stack but the way both teams can run the ball it’s just a 1 WR spot in a main lineup. Metcalf has been “too quiet” in my mind, but should easily crush his salary.
- Jordan Addison (DK: $5300, FD: $6000) … He won’t flop two weeks in a row.
TIER TWO
- Darnell Mooney (DK: $5500, FD: $5900) … Cousins has been awful, but he does have the flare of going back into Minnesota to maybe have a revenge/comeback story game. London and Mooney are probably going to each have a ton of targets and Mooney’s gonna draw better coverages.
- Marvin Harrison Jr (DK: $6000, FD: $6800)
- Cooper Kupp (DK: $7000, FD: $8500)
FORGOTTEN MAN
- DeVonta Smith (DK: $5800, FD: $7400) … So Goedert is out but Devonta is back. Everyone is all in on Saquon. The Eagles are expected to smash the Panthers. Their defense is going to make Bryce Young look sad. Alright. This is very fucking simple in my mind. One of two things is going to happen. Philly is going to somehow struggle with a Panthers team playing better and more confident of late and nobody really is of any use or they are going to cruise and they will find a way to get Smith back involved in the offense.
- Brock Bowers (DK: $6500, FD: $8000)
- TJ Hockenson (DK: $4300, FD: $6300)
- DOLPHINS (DK: $3200, FD: $4500) … Gut feeling
- STEELERS (DK: $3500, FD: $5000) … Safe play
- SAINTS (DK: $2900, FD: $4400) … Value
- NY GIANTS (DK: $2600, FD: $3300) … Value – especially on FD
DFS CORE
QB – Geno Smith
WR – DK Metcalf
TE – Brock Bowers
BEST GAME STACKS
- Falcons / Vikings
- Seahawks / Cardinals
BETTING CARD
- Titans -2.5
- Steelers -6
- Dolphins -6
- Bears ML