The American Express
Well, we’re done with Hawai’i!
This is one of the “odd” tournaments we will see during the West Coast Swing. This event – and the Pebble Beach Pro-Am – will both be played on three different courses resulting in a three-round cut of 65 and ties. I will typically scale back on my play due to the volatility – but, sometimes only as it relates to the “regular play”. By that, I mean the contests that span the entire four days of the tournament.
I’ve started playing the Showdown slates (1-3 lineups) a few years ago and actually hit a good one a few years ago at Sony. It helps to keep my interest if I know by Friday afternoon that my regular lineups have found a permanent home in the local landfill. I have somewhat of a strategy, but I’ll talk about it at the end. The nice thing for us East Coast players is a late lock.
PGA DFS is such a quirky thing. For example, one bad shot can equal a missed cut! In NFL, a Mahomes’ interception costs you three points. A Tom Kim double bogey on the 18th can cost you two days of points in DFS. Another reason, why I’ve started dabbling in Showdowns.
As I said above, THIS IS AN ODD TOURNAMENT!! While we are away from no-cut events for a little while, we are getting into a somewhat quirky part of the season with Pro-Ams, multiple courses in an event, and 54-hole cuts. That’s what we have this week.
Highlights: The Stadium Course – Par 72 @ 7,113 yards. (Played twice)
The Nicklaus Course – Par 72 @ 7,152 yards
La Quinta – Par 72 @ 7,060 yards (Typically the easiest course on Tour)
The Nicklaus Course and La Quinta are the easiest scoring courses and the players will need to shoot low on these two courses to stay in contention. The Stadium Course is an easier-scoring course as well, but being a TPC, there are some blow-up holes.
TIP: If you are someone that plays the Showdowns, try to target guys on Nicklaus and La Quinta on Thursday – Saturday.
There are more top-tier players in this tournament than I am use to seeing and that has been the case the last couple of years. However, Xander Schauffele has already withdrawn from this tournament. He had a TGL event after The Sentry and has another next Tuesday which may keep him from The Farmers on Wednesday. I’m not sure this TGL thing is going to be very good for the PGA Tour or DFS in general. Looks more like a “money grab” for the bigger names. No more bashing the LIV Tour!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$9,000 and Above
Usually, we’re hoping to get one of these guys in a lineup because we can’t trust the sub-$7,500 guys too much to make the cut. However, in a guaranteed 3-round tournament, you can take a little more risk with these guys and hit the mid to low $7K guys to balance out your cost. Most weeks, I’m really only interested in one of these guys if I think they can finish Top 10 – the $10K plus guys mainly. Otherwise, the return doesn’t justify the cost.
- Sungjae Im ($10,300) – $200 more than last year but has played this tournament six times and has SIX Top 25s. Some guys are screwed up by the amateurs playing with them. Im seems to take it in stride.
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,600) – He is one of my favorite plays every week. He usually makes cuts and can pop out a sub-66 round at any time. It’s also why I like him in Showdowns. Didn’t play as well here last year but has a T15 and an 11th place finish this year.
- Justin Thomas ($10,400) – He’s a little expensive and is now the highest priced guy since Xander withdrew. I’m probably going to dabble with him a bit and he appears to have his game in order. The volume I have in JT will be directly related to what lower-priced guys I’m comfortable playing.
- Sam Burns ($9,800) – My “gut play” in this category this week.
Again, with three rounds guaranteed, I wouldn’t rule out any of the guys in this tier. At the lower end, I’m thinking Max Greyserman ($9,200) is a good option as well.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Harry Hall ($8,800)** – Missed Cut here last year but I really am impressed with this current play. Four events in the last 12 weeks and everything is Top 15. Top 10 at both Sentry and Sony as well.
- Will Zalatoris ($8,400)** – He is one of my favorite plays every time he tees it up – assuming I’m confident he’s healthy. As of now, I’m confident.
- Nick Dunlap ($8,500) – Defending champion and I rarely like to play those guys. However, three Top 20s in four events this season makes me think he outperforms this price. Win? Doubt it, but you never know.
- Eric Cole ($8,300) – Playing pretty well right now and did well here last year.
- Patrick Fishburn ($8,100) could be interchanged with Cole. Fishburn was relatively unknown to me until last week but he does have two Top 10s in his last two events.
$7,000 to $7,900
- Adam Hadwin ($8,300) – Like last year, he didn’t play well at Sony! This year, he did at least make the cut. But, this tournament seems to be one of his favorites. He has never missed a cut in nine attempts. Those nine years include three Top 5s, five Top 10s (includes the Top 5s to avoid confusion), and seven Top 25s.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,300)** – Bless you…again! I know, that joke is getting old – but, so am I.
- Nico Echavarria ($7,900)** – Current play makes him a viable option until he proves otherwise. In his last six events, he has a 2nd, a T2, a T6 and a Win!
- Alex Smalley ($7,200) – Purely a course(s) history play. Three events – three Top 25s. A T16 last week doesn’t hurt either.
- Jackson Suber ($7,000) – My longshot in this tier. T6 last week after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour.
Under $7,000
- Matt Kuchar ($6,900)** – He’s always an option and had a T21 last week. At this price, his talent is still worthy of a play.
- Frankie Capan ($6,800)** – Korn Ferry graduate as well. His last five events on the KFT? T5-Win-T12-T57-T2!
- Paul Peterson ($6,600)
As promised, Showdown tactics:
- On weeks like this, look at who is playing the easy courses Thursday – Saturday.
- On Sunday, you get points for finishing position, so focus on guys near the top third of the leader board.
- Other days, I look first at how a guy is playing and then look at what his “round average” is for that particular round. You can sort this on DK.
- If a guy shoots lights out (sub-65) one day, don’t count on him doing the same thing the next. Especially if it’s Sunday. Guys at the top tend to “protect” and don’t necessarily shoot a low round. You still get the position points but, usually, a guy that shoots 65, 66, or 67 and moves up the board will get you more points than a winner that shoots even par.
- GUT FEELING!! Yeah, I know, what kind of strategy is that? While Showdowns keep you interested and can make a bad week great, they are a lot of luck! I can’t predict what a guy will shoot from one round to the next. I can only go by how he statistically plays.
Plays on Nicklaus (NT) and La Quinta (LQ) (Thursday – Saturday):
Thursday (LQ): Greyserman, Burns, Zalatoris, Finau, Hadwin, Cantlay, Thomas and Echavarria
Friday (LQ): Kuchar, Peterson, Im, Nick Taylor, Bezuidenhout, Glover & English
Saturday (LQ): Hall, Norlander, Capan, Meissner, Cam Young, Vegas, Harman, Straka, and Hoge
Thursday (NT): Harman, Straka, Hall, Capan, Cam Young, Hoge and Meissner
Friday (NT): Hadwin, Cantlay, Si Woo, Thomas, Echavarria, Clark, Greyserman, Zalatoris, Finau & Burns
Saturday (NT): Im, Nick Taylor, Bezuidenhout, Suber, Glover, Kuchar and Peterson
I may have missed some, but look at PGA.COM to get tee times.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it! GOOD LUCK!!