Let’s rank the best Sporting moments within a calendar year shall we… The top 5 includes that period in October when MLB Playoffs, CFB, NHL, NBA, NFL are all in full swing. March when the college basketball conference tournaments are going, June when the US Open, NHL/NBA Finals and MLB are all in full swing, CFB Bowl Season around the Holidays and this weekend. Divisional Weekend.
GAME QUICK THOUGHTS
TEXANS at CHIEFS
My Pick(s): Texans +8.5
My reasoning: I just don’t think the Chiefs are going to be able to turn it on like everyones gut feels they will. Sure, the Mahomes magic and the playoff luck they seem to have weighs heavily. Sure, the Texans just weren’t as good overall this year and probably can’t score more than 20 points in this game. But this was my first initial feeling and I am sticking with it. Houston will need a couple big plays through the air and a great game from Joe Mixon to win. For Showdown purposes, Mixon is a must, Metchie is a nice to have. For the main DFS slate it’s Mixon and maybe a defense spot as this one SHOULD be near that low total.
COMMANDERS at LIONS
My Pick(s): Lions -9.5, Over 55.5
Hey, I’ve seen this one before…. The Lions are going to drop 40 on the Skins this week. They have too many weapons #1, but they have an OL that will not have any problems with Washington’s defense. Expect scheme to win here and the Commanders to not have their own strength up front to control the LOS for Daniels and this one turns very ugly in the late second Quarter. It’s an old school blowout as the Lions get revenge for the 1991 NFC Championship game (uhh, yeah, thats a thing?), and they win this one 48-17.
RAMS at EAGLES
My Pick(s): Under 44.5, Eagles -6
The Rams are really good on short rest when playing on the east coast. But Sean McVay cannot beat Vic Fangio. Something has to give here. In the case of McVay, it is Vic Fangio. In 2018 the Rams went into Chicago needing a win to fight for a top seed and wound up with a 4 INT Goff night and only 28 yards rushing from Todd Gurley. Later that season the Patriots used the same scheme in the “this game should have never happened” Super Bowl limiting the Rams to 3 points. Wouldn’t you know it, when the Rams and Eagles met this year, Fangio won big again as the Rams were 0-8 on third down and had just 160 yards offense after their first two drives.
Everyone will try to justify a “dome” team going into the snowy and cold Linc as the reason the Eagles defense is the pick, when in reality, it’s talent and scheme — the most basic elements you can think of — as to why Philly D is going to be the talk of the league on Monday.
RAVENS at BILLS
My Pick(s): A warm blanket, some chili, and a few cold beers… Enjoy the piss out of this game.
We suffer through endless weeks of bad QB match-ups and some bad prime time games along the way to get rewarded with this. Sit back & enjoy it.
Unlike last week I would put some money down that we’re gonna see 2 huge Quarterback games this weekend with the Daniels/Goff plays being the most likely. Between the two, Goff is the clear cut #1 in my mind. The rest, the home field, the better OL/weapons matchup vs the Washington defense and it’s just the Lions season not the Commanders. The slipper falls off now as Detroit might cover the 55.5 total by themselves.
TOP PICK
Jared Goff (DK: $6300, FD: $8000) … Too many weapons and too easy of a time for him in the pocket today. Washington has to decide to go full single coverage and blitz him and risk the big plays or try to play the shell game and let him go 90% completion rate. Either way, he’s as safe as you’ll find.
SECOND CHOICES
- Josh Allen (DK: $7700, FD: $9000)
- Jalen Hurts (DK: $6800, FD: $8200) … This game should be a slower paced one when it comes to “big plays” and going Hurts likely means Barkley doesn’t have a huge game which is hard to imagine that scenario playing out, but Hurts price is really tempting.
TOP PICK
Joe Mixon (DK: $6500, FD: $7600) … After the first game you’ll either be feeling great or feeling like you drew dead. No reason not to have more than one lineup this weekend and thus make sure Mixon is on that first one.
SECOND CHOICES
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DK: $7700, FD: $8900)
- Austin Ekeler (DK: $5100, FD: $5500)
- Saquon Barkley (DK: $8200, FD: $9300) … How’s the Rams gonna slow down Barkley? Howwwwww?
TOP PICKS
- Khalil Shakir (DK: $5000, FD: $6100) … Really dislike a lot about WR. Shakir should be near the top among ownership & is going to have too many targets to not want him in your lineup.
- Rashod Bateman (DK: $4900, FD: $6200) … Back to the well here with Zay out once again and DK not really bumping his price up enough.
SECONDARY OPTIONS
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK: $7200, FD: $8700) … Any and all Lions pass catchers are going to hit 2x today.
- Terry McLaurin (DK: $6300, FD: $7600)
I think TE is equally as good as WR on this slate, so I won’t say there is a top overall pick here but LaPorta gets the nod given the obvious game stack desires.
- Sam LaPorta (DK: $4200, FD: $6000) … Find a player who failed to ascend into the elite status this season but is going to come out and have a massive playoff run. Oh, hey there Sam LaPorta.
- Dalton Kincaid (DK: $3700, FD: $5400)
- Dallas Goedert (DK: $3900, FD: $6100)
- Eagles
- Lions
- Texans
DFS CORE/BUILD
Sure, just consider me like everyone else and loading up on the Washington/Detroit game. It is what it is. The key this weekend is to avoid mistakes and I don’t see any scenario where that game is a mistake. How we build around that game though could be the contrarian difference. Correlating Goff & Gibbs is fine. I am okay as well with Goff-Gibbs-LaPorta and just fading the Detroit WR all together.
Overall these are my top plays on the slate with 1 from each game:
QB – Jared Goff
RB – Joe Mixon
WR – Khalil Shakir
D/ST – Eagles
OFFICIAL BETS
- Texans +8.5
- Washington/Detroit OVER 55.5
- Rams/Eagles UNDER 44.5
- Buffalo ML
FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS
- Houston 24, Kansas City 16: Houston turns the Chiefs over three times, they get a big special teams play in the third quarter to give them the lead and Stroud does not turn it over.
- Detroit 51, Washington 29:
- Philadelphia 26, L.A. Rams 13:
- Buffalo 30, Baltimore 27 (OT):