Six game slates are great, no matter what sport, well except MLB that is. A six game NFL slate is amazing and a multi-day big contest slate is also amazing. Makes you wonder why we cannot do this when Bowl season is around, but we’ll not waste any time with that conversation.
As always the NFL Playoffs should begin with an official Super Bowl prediction and my take all along has been Bills to win the Super Bowl facing either Detroit or Philadelphia. That has not changed, but Baltimore is definitely a threat to Buffalo should they beat Pittsburgh (Lamar’s kryptonite) and while I was shifting to Philly to beat Detroit a couple weeks ago, I am once again back on the Detroit bandwagon. So Bills vs Lions is the official prediction, heavier weight on the Bills.
GAME QUICK THOUGHTS
Chargers at Texans (LAC -3, O/U 41.5)
- Can CJ Stroud suddenly be accurate enough to win a tournament over Allen, Daniels, Lamar, Stafford, Darnold, Hurts, Baker, etc..? No. Is he gonna kill you at his price? Probably not. I wouldn’t take this bait though.
- Nobody is really talking about how well Justin Herbert is playing. LAC could be a sneaky stack
Steelers at Ravens (BAL -9.5, O/U 43.5)
- Just like Week 1, I would never feel great about laying almost double digit points in a divisional game in the playoffs. So Steelers +9.5 is the system play here. How we get there, who knows.
- Logic says Ravens should just lean on Henry. You signed him for this exact type of game. Take the pressure off Lamar and trust that the Steelers offense will not score touchdowns.
- The under looks good here
Broncos at Bills (BUF -8.5, O/U 47.5)
- Saw an amazing and irrelevant Sean Payton stat that I didn’t even know. He is something like 32-14 against bald head coaches. How about that! Anyways… This might be the game of the week. The Broncos are going to try and slow it down, you can expect lots of third and 3, third and 2 situations to keep them in long drives, ahead of the chains and pressuring Allen to sit and watch.
- Between McLaughlin, Williams and Estime, the Broncos RB will touch the ball a ton.
- Denver will take the ball first and they will run a play action pass to Adam Trautman for a 4-6 yard gain.
- Rinse. Repeat. RB and TE for Denver all game long. Buffalo plays to not give up the big play. Denver will glady run long, time consuming drives down the field.
- Expect the first half to go under. Expect Denver to cover
Packers at Eagles (PHI -4.5, O/U 45.5)
- Something feels wrong about this game.
Commanders at Buccaneers (TB -3, O/U 50.5)
- Evans vs Lattimore is getting a little too much hype. Lattimore is not up to his physical standards as he didn’t come into the season in shape and I think you’re going to see less of him 1v1 vs Evans than the media wants.
- This game is all about Bucky Irving and Zach Ertz. I can find QB’s elsewhere on the slate so I don’t need Daniels. But those two guys are going squarely into lineup(s) this week.
Vikings at Rams (MIN -2.5, O/U 48.5)
- This total should go over. The location change IMO doesn’t really make that much of a difference
- For the full 6 game slate lineups it’s hard not to have a big $ WR sitting and waiting in this game and then play the ownership pivot depending upon how you sit going into it. But make sure you do this in the FLEX because I really think Kyren Williams/Aaron Jones could be lower owned than they should be. How is Jones not going to score twice?
- Rams were my initial pick in this game. But if the Vikings are smart, Jones leads them into the 2nd round.
Honest not where I am prioritizing spending up for, nor wasting much time here. I don’t think we have a 30 point game from anyone, so just find a decent floor and move along…
- JUSTIN HERBERT (DK: $6000, FD: $7600)
- MATTHEW STAFFORD (DK: $5700, FD: $7100)
RB is great this week, get 3 in lineups with one of the three being either Barkley or Henry for certain. After that I like these two, who are both chalky given their prices, but solid plays.
BUCKY IRVING (DK: $7000, FD: $7600)
I’m most definitely playing my favorite RB in this field against the worst rush defense in the playoffs. Easy call for me.
AARON JONES (DK: $6000, FD: $7400)
My line of thinking on this is that the Rams will prioritize not letting Jefferson and Addison beat them. L.A. likely does not want this to turn into a shootout because they could have a hard time protecting Stafford all game. So we’ll see the Vikings wind up with favorable run fronts giving Jones a solid floor.
PUKA NACUA (DK: $7600, FD: $8700)
He would have to get hurt not to finish with 20 FPTS this week
KHALIL SHAKIR (DK: $5300, FD: $6200)
The Bills can get this game over with easily by spreading it out with their WR. I think they can attack the seams of Denver and open up some big plays in the passing game. I’ll take my chances with Shakir breaking one loose.
JAYDEN REED (DK: $5500, FD: $6000)
Gut feeling says that he scores, and in this price range with the RB emphasis I want this weekend he fits lineups well.
QUENTIN JOHNSTON (DK: $4800, FD: $6300)
It’s definitely chasing points here but I have no shame doing it.
ZACH ERTZ (DK: $4300, FD: $5800)
Must own with Daniels
MARK ANDREWS (DK: $4700, FD: $3200)
Likely makes sense on the Saturday only slate, but Andrews is the safer full weekend option
- EAGLES
- RAVENS
- VIKINGS
- Chargers -3
- Steelers +9.5
- Broncos/Bills UNDER 47.5
- Broncos +8.5
- Vikings/Rams OVER 46.5