Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches
Ah, the Florida swing! After a brief stop South of the Border, we are now headed to the Sunshine State to begin a stretch where 4 of the next 5 tournaments will be in Florida. That includes The Players in a few weeks. I’m out of the country next week and there is no way I’ll get an article out for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I should be able to answer questions on Discord.
The one thing we will see over the next few weeks is, most likely, a lot of volatility in the play. Some guys excel in Florida but, with the difficulty of some of the courses, that does always mean “consistently excel”. With the Bear Trap here and Snake Pit at Valspar in a few weeks, there is always trouble lurking that can turn a competitive round into a missed cut. We all know The Players can provide some good scoring but it can also provide for some volatility in the closing holes with the Par 3 17th.
It’s not a great field this week, but there are some big names. He’s a good player, but when Russell Henley is $10,700 you know it’s not a loaded field this week. I said the same thing last year at $10,200 but Henley isn’t anything to ignore either. While not flashy, he is about as consistent as it gets.
Highlights:
PGA National – Par 70 @ 7,150 yards
Welcome to The Bear Trap! Holes 15-17 at PGA National is one of the more famous three-hole stretches in golf. Not near as famous as Amen Corner, but infamous nonetheless because the tournament can be decided on these three holes on Sunday afternoon.
This course is difficult. There is so much trouble that accuracy off the tee is going to be important. Fairways are narrow, greens are fast (Bermuda), and plenty of water hazards are available for used ball collections.
Par 5 scoring is also important since there are only two of them!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$9,000 and Above
Since there are only two guys over $10K, I’m changing up the Tiers this week. This is what happens with weak fields. Should still see some great golf though.
- Russell Henley ($10,700) – Frankly, both guys above $10K are in play, but not necessary. Of the two, I like Shane Lowry the best.
- Shane Lowry ($10,500)** – He has a T39 and a 2nd this season. Course history here is great at T4-T5-2nd-T36-T21 in the last three years. Florida can be a windy place and European players like Lowry are more used to dealing with it…in my opinion.
- Denny McCarthy ($9,300) – Not much success here other than a T3 in 2021, but his current form is outstanding.
- Daniel Berger ($9,900) – Honestly, until last season, Berger was one of my favorite plays because he was usually reasonably priced for the skills. This may be a little too high of a price but I think he’s getting his form back. In six events, he has two missed cuts but also 4 Top 25s (with three Top 15s). I think he’s past the injuries and has played very well here historically.
- Min Woo Lee ($9,200) – I think this will be your “under the radar” guy. While he’s been playing very well, he’s not a name that the average DFS player will be familiar with. T2 here last year is a good base too.
- Keith Mitchell ($9,100)** – this is both a gut feeling and a current form/course history play. Both of the latter are nice (including a win here) and when my gut says yes before I even see this, not playing him will, I believe, make me sick on Sunday.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Cameron Young ($8,800)** – this is similar to my Spieth play a few weeks ago. He’s choppy and cheap at this price. I’m going to hold my nose and play him because, when he’s good, he’s been good (12th-T2-MC-T21-MC-13th). His worst finish here in two attempts is T16. Comfortable courses help players get right.
- Ben Griffin ($8,500)** – MC here last year but he’s in good form.
- Patrick Rodgers ($8,200) – Current form play.
- Andrew Novak ($8,000) – T9 here last year. Top 15 or MC so far this season. My gut feeling is he plays well this week.
$7,000 to $7,900
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,400)** – Really? Why? This is far too low of a price for his talent and he’s coming off an 8th place finish.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500)** – thank you DK algorithm! I can start with half my lineup from this Tier and hope I pick the guys at the top that won’t disappoint…several always do.
- Harry Hall ($7,400)
- Brian Harman ($7,700) – quietly playing well this year.
- Rickie Fowler ($7,600) – I like him, but see the Cam Young analysis above.
- Taylor Moore ($7,600) – five straight made cuts. Two Top 10s. This price? Hell yes!!
- Matt Kuchar ($7,000) – maybe it’s because I’m old. Maybe it’s because he’s a veteran and can usually manage tough conditions and avoid trouble. Maybe it’s because I’m lying to myself that the back-to-back missed cuts here don’t bother me. If you need a filler, this could work well.
Under $7,000
- Kristoffer Ventura ($6,900) – He’s young but he’s playing well. Once plus is he’s played in this tournament before in 2021.
- Antoine Rozner ($6,800)** – 3 straight made cuts this season.
- Matthieu Pavon ($6,400)
- Ryu Hisatsune ($6,600)
- Zach Johnson ($6,600) – See the Matt Kuchar argument above. However, ZJ has gone T21-T12-MC-T8 here in the last four years. Even the MC won’t kill you at this price as long as he’s close.
Longshot(s)
- Ryan Gerard ($7,300) – Back to back Top 20s and a 4th place here in his only visit. I don’t expect a Top 10 but if I get one at this price…VALUE EXCEEDED!
- Isaiah Salinda ($7,100) – I’ll be honest. Didn’t know much about him until I watched last weekend. Solid player.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!