THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
This is a tournament – and a course – where I don’t think any of these guys can claim to have a mastery over it. There are a ton of holes where a blowup can occur. Since moving the tournament to March, the wind has been even more of an equalizer. 17 of the 18 holes have water in play. None of the guys priced at $10K or above have played here more than once and not missed a cut. Ludvig Aberg is 1-for-1 with an 8th place finish last year. In other words, there is no obvious course-horse.
Of those guys at the top, we’ll look at who is playing the best and that, my friends, doesn’t make it any easier.
If not for a somewhat mediocre start (by Scheffler standards), everyone would love Scottie Scheffler this week. Should they? I’m going to say yes even though he’s going for the almost-impossible three-peat.
The biggest “enticement” to play the five-figure guys is the fact that DraftKings decided to price a ton of guys in the under $6K range. 55 Players to be exact. Now, that doesn’t mean “play them at will” because, remember, there is a Cut. Top 65 and ties.
Highlights:
TPC Sawgrass – Par 72 @ 7,275 yards
Everyone knows the Par 3 17th!
This course is difficult – verified by the lack of consistent results by players. This event moved to March about 5 years ago which brought weather into play. There is so much trouble that accuracy. There is the potential this week for plenty more double-digit hole scores than we saw last week.
Smaller greens. Narrow fairways. Above average rough. Trees. Water (and plenty of it) – need anything else?
POA Greens for those of you looking at putting stats on different surfaces.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
You can play two of these guys if you really want to give the fact that DraftKings has priced guys in the $5K range and, this week in particular, the field is a little higher in quality down there. In order of preference:
- Scottie Scheffler ($12,800)
- Collin Morikawa ($10,500)
- Rory McIlroy ($11,500)
- Ludvig Aberg ($10,200)
- Justin Thomas ($10,100)
- Patrick Cantlay ($$10,000)
- Xander Schauffele ($11,100) – Two reasons: (1) third highest priced and (2) not confident he’s back in form from the injury. T40 last week doesn’t fill me with confidence.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800)** – Slow start last week at the API but finished strong. He’s made 6 of 7 cuts here and his current form: T11-T5-T22-T21.
- Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900)** – 3 Top 10s in his last 4 trips to Sawgrass. Of course, the one that wasn’t a Top 10 was a missed cut. Go back and read the opening in case you only look at the “plays”.
- Russell Henley ($9,500) – I hate playing the winner from the week before, but he has to be one of the hottest players on Tour and loves to play in Florida.
- Shane Lowry ($9,100) – wind in Florida in March is inevitable at some point this week. I like a guy from the Euro Tour that just grinds it out.
- Daniel Berger ($9,600) – I think this guy is back to the form he was in a few years ago. Hasn’t been able to play here since 2022 but was a T13 then.
You can play the other guys here if you really feel like it. However, I’d maybe stick to Burns ($9,300) and Clark ($9,400). Viktor Hovland ($9,000) is at a great price, but he’s missed the cut in 3 of his last 4 events. I just don’t want to risk it.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Sepp Straka ($8,600) – Like Henley, he’s another hot player.
- Will Zalatoris ($8,700) – I just like his game.
- Jason Day ($8,100)** – I remember when he would have been one of the guys in the five-figure club. He’s not the same J-Day he was in the late 2010s but he’s revitalized his game recently, has the experience here to outperform this price, and is playing at a high level. Golf is a strange game – in DFS and real life. You’re playing at a high level…until you’re not!
- Si Woo Kim ($8,200) – Historically, he’s the “Dye Course Killer”. Coming into the tournament off four straight Top 25s with that reputation is good.
$7,000 to $7,900
- Corey Conners ($7,900) – It’s “Major Pricing” like this that makes you want to load up on guys in this category…and you can.
- Brian Harman ($7,600)
- Aaron Rai ($7,100)
- Max Greyserman ($7,300) – Zero history but, like I said, history at Sawgrass usually doesn’t mean shit!
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,100) – playing well and has back-to-back Top 15s here.
- Keegan Bradley ($7,700) – I just have a feeling he plays well. Top 20!
Under $7,000 (but higher than $6K)
- Ben Griffin ($6,700)
- Justin Rose ($6,300)
- Rickie Fowler ($6,600) – same philosophy as J-Day. He’s not the same Rickie but he’s also playing well enough that he’s not the “This-Price Rickie” either. Use him as a price saver freely and confidently!
$6,000 & Under (They made me do it)
- Rasmus Hojgaard ($5,800) & Nicolai Hojgaard ($5,700) – Are you freaking kidding me? Look, I get it. Little to no experience here. However, little or no salary usage to roster them both is a damn no-brainer to me…at least in one lineup.
- Michael Kim ($5,900) – This price is laughable for his form: 4th-T6-T13-T13-T2!
- Taylor Moore ($5,600) – six straight made cuts. Any of these guys make a cut at this price – and the rest of your lineup doesn’t shit the bed – you’re gold!
- Karl Vilips ($5,600) – another unknown until he won the alternate event last week in Puerto Rico. Tells me two things. He can win and he can play in the wind!
There are plenty of other guys in this tier that are viable but, unless you all want a novel, I’m not mentioning everyone. Some are recognizable names but make sure you look at their current form. I tried to point out the guys that I think are just priced here because of the algorithm and not because they are in a slump.
Longshot(s)
- Laurie Canter ($5,900) – Look, I know it’s the algorithm that has the pricing the way it is and, typically, Majors are like this. This is an unknown to most of the people that only follow golf on CBS or NBC on the weekends. And, I’ll be honest, I’ve only seen this guy for a cheap second. However, in six events on the World Tour since December, he’s finished 2nd-T35-Win-3rd-T42-T21! TOO CHEAP?? Maybe. Too risky?? At this price, HELL NO!!!!!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!