Valspar Championship
The Players is done! Rory seems set for a fantastic season! Welcome to the Snake Pit!
We’ve been spoiled the last few weeks with quality fields and normally, that ends for the next couple of weeks with The Masters looming in the distance. Well, not too bad this year! Now, the lower end of the list – not so much.
Highlights: Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course
- Par 71 – 7,340 yards
- Four Par 5s and Five Par 3s
- No short Par 3s
- Fairways are very narrow
- Greens are small (Bermuda over seeded with POA)
- Snake Pit (Holes 16-18)
This is a difficult scoring track. This week won’t depend so much on a high number of birdies and eagles! The key this week will be avoiding bogeys!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
The Wind is supposed to be intense on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning! Normally, I don’t worry about tee times and making the cut because these guys are usually very adaptable. However, it is projected to be a stroke or more advantage due to the wind intensity and gusts. Favoring the guys that have A.M tee times on Thursday (and subsequent P.M. tee times on Friday) may provide a strategic advantage to making the cut.
$10,000 and Above
Four guys! That’s it!
- Xander Schauffele ($10,500) – Not my favorite this week but we all know it’s just a matter of time before he gets his “Tour legs” back.
- Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300) – I like him here. In two attempts, he’s been Top 20 both times and finished T3 two years ago. His current form: 5 tournaments, five Top 25s, two Top 15s the last two weeks in Florida.
- Justin Thomas ($10,800) – Highest priced guy. Played ok last week but, if not for round 2, he’d had a few extra practice rounds here. He does have a nice course history.
- Sepp Straka ($10,000) – Missed the cut last year but one of the hottest guys on Tour right now. He’s made 8 of his last 9 cuts and had a win in that run as well.
Stars-and-Scrubs will be hard this week! I’m only playing a few lineups and will probably hit the Showdowns each day as well. I’m probably going Fleetwood and Straka if I use any of the $10K guys this week.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Will Zalatoris ($9,300)** – Tough course and he is one of those guys that tends to play better on tough ones. He’s never played here but he’s been pretty consistent so far this season.
- Alex Smalley ($9,000)** – Played three times at Innisbrook. Missed two cuts. However, I don’t care because he is playing like a different guy right now. He’s missed one cut this season and everything else is 21st or better.
- Tom Kim ($9,200) – Again, tough course plus controlled player usually equals good things.
- Corey Conners ($9,600) – Liked his finish last week and think it carries over.
- Shane Lowry ($9,400) – underperformed last week in my opinion. But Florida = wind and wind favors players form Scotland/Ireland most of the time.
- Sam Burns ($9,800) – Course horse even though he missed the cut last year. 2021-2023 were MUCH better: Win-Win-6th respectively.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Jake Knapp ($8,100)**
- Taylor Moore ($8,600)
- Lucas Glover ($8,800)
- Michael Kim ($8,900)** – don’t care that he missed the cut last week. Prior to that, he’s killing it! I like a bounce back this week.
$7,000 to $7,900
- Stephen Jaeger ($7,900)**
- Sahith Theegala ($7,800)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600)**
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,300) – I’ll forgive him for last week.
- Matt Kuchar ($7,100) – Again, I guy that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and that’s important on tough courses.
- Niklas Norgarrd Moller ($7,400) – 16th in Shots Gained (Total) in last 16 rounds.
Under $7,000
- Danny Walker ($6,900)** – I’ll admit it. I wasn’t paying attention until last week.
- Quade Cummins ($6,800)
- Erik van Rooyen ($6,900) – OUT!!!+
- Chandler Phillips ($6,700) – T3 here last year.
Longshot(s)
- R. Neegaard-Petersen ($7,700) – Who? Exactly!!! Coming off a 2nd place finish in Puerto Rico a couple of weeks ago and had a 2nd in Qatar prior to that.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!