THE PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
Major #2! Quail Hollow is a familiar course. The Truist (played last week) would normally be played here but…you typically won’t get a Major course twice in one year.
This is the way the PGA Tour should be. ALL of the guys playing against each other instead of the elite players being split between two warring Tours. Still not a LIV fan, but I get why they moved.
Draft Kings priced some guys below $6,000 and some of them are very good options if you want to hit the Rory/Scottie or JT/Scottie or Bryson/Rory combinations.
Highlights: Quail Hollow
- Par 71 – 7,626 yards
- Narrow fairways
- Fast greens (POA trivialis overseed – yeah, I’m not an agronomist)
- Some long rough, trees and water in play on 7 holes.
NOTE: This is a 156-player field. Top 70 and ties make the cut!! So, roughly ½ of the field should/could make the cut.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
$10,000 and Above (In my order of preference)
- Scottie “Lock and Load” Scheffler ($13,400) – finally won this year in a complete dismemberment of the field at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Finally? Sounds like I’m saying he should win every week. Should he? NO! Could he? Hell, yes!
- Rory McIlroy ($12,200) – Besides “Lock and Load”, he IS playing the best golf in the world right now. Frankly, maybe even better. The comparison of current form is negligible at best. It may not be worth the $1,200 to go Scottie over Rory but with the pricing, you don’t necessarily have to choose.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($11,500)
- Xander Schauffele ($10,700)
- Ludvig Aberg ($10,800)
- Collin Morikawa ($10,400)
- Jon Rahm ($10,200)
I can’t give you any solid reasons to not play any of these guys! Other than Scottie and Rory, DeChambeau is likely the most solid choice for staying in the Top 10. Xander is playing better but is still shaking off some rust from the early season injury. Aberg, although I love his game, hasn’t been pumping out the good finishes (T60 & T54 in last two). Morikawa gives up a little off the tee and this is a long course. Rahm will be the wildcard. My gut, Top 20 but not Top10.
I think if you get 5/6 or 6/6 through to the weekend you have a good chance of cashing. You may get lucky with 4/6 IF all four are Top 15.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Justin Thomas ($9,900) – could have easily been a $10,000 + golfer this week but the pricing came out before he finished T2 last week. Won here the last time Quail Hollow hosted the PGA in 2017. If you think that none of the guys at five figures wins, it won’t kill you to start a lineup right here.
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100) – at some point, he’s going to win.
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,500)
- Joaquin Niemann ($9,600) – two wins in the last 5 events on LIV. He will be in the mix.
- Shane Lowry ($9,200) – seven Top 20s (3 Top 10s) in eight events this year. Six Top 20s (3 Top 10s) in his last eight PGAs. Yeah, I like those odds!
- Brooks Koepka ($9,700) – I mean, IT’S A MAJOR! Brooks will show up!
- Jordan Spieth ($9,300) – while I’m not feeling it with Jordan this week, I think he plays well enough to finish Top 20.
- Viktor Hovland ($9,800) – 3rd and T2 at last two PGAs. Has won this year but I’m not seeing the consistency. If he was high $8K or lower $9K, I’d probably like him better.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Patrick Reed ($8,100) – Five years ago, you wouldn’t see this price for him. THIS IS A STEAL!!! 3rd at The Masters!
- Corey Conners ($8,300)
- Sepp Straka ($8,000) – he’d be a higher price if pricing didn’t come out before he won last week. May be highly owned though because a lot of people will play him based or recency bias.
- Cameron Smith ($8,400) – Hmmm! Should be very good value at this price. I said, “should be.” I think he’s fine but I’d take the other three named above first.
- Russell Henley ($8,900) – the length of the course is what scares me the most with him. However, he is good at course management and should stay out of trouble.
$7,000 to $7,900
- Daniel Berger ($7,900) – I’ve been on this guy for most of the year and he hasn’t disappointed. Eight events – Seven Top 20s. At this price, it’s a great play for that result.
- Sam Burns ($7,700) – Seems to come out of his early-season funk.
- Tony Finau ($7,400)
- Keegan Bradley ($7,200)
- Rickie Fowler ($7,100)
- Maverick McNealy ($7,800) – course length and accuracy off the tee should favor him.
$6,000 to $6,900
- Stephan Jaeger ($6,500) – this is the only time I’ll pay over $6K for a Jaeger-Bomb…unless DraftKings is dumb enough to keep pricing him this low.
- Andrew Novak ($6,600)
- Keith Mitchell ($6,200)
- Rasmus Hojgaard ($6,600)
- J. T. Poston ($6,400)
- Jake Knapp ($6,300)
- Harris English ($6,800)
- Alexander Noren ($6,600)
This Tier is just overflowing with potential plays that help you balance out multiple Top Tier names. Going Scottie & Rory only leaves you $6,100 per golfer. This Tier combined with a couple from below can let you do that. I think that combo is more viable on FanDuel but if you really want the pre-Tournament favorites for 1st and 2nd , it’s doable.
Under $6,000
- Erik Van Rooyen ($5,700)
- Tom Hoge ($5,900)
- Sam Stevens ($5,800)
- Michael Thorbjornsen ($5,700)
- Sami Valimaki ($5,500)
- Gary Woodland ($5,800) – accuracy and experience at this price is GOLD!
- Mackenzie Hughes ($5,600) – History at the PGA is horrific. Current form is not!
I could probably keep going, but that’s enough!
Longshot(s)
- Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra ($5,800) – So, who is this guy? Yeah, me too. But we always seem to have a player come from nowhere in the PGA. Not to win, but to show us he can play. World Tour player and his last four events are T11-T4-1st-T20!
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen ($6,100) – last five: 4th (WT)-T10 (WT)-T22 (PGA)-2nd (PGA)-2nd (WT).
- Aaron Rai ($6,800)
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!