I have thought long and hard about the NFL slate this week and I like it a good amount. I can honestly say that I have been trending down and down and down on the excitement for NFL DFS for the last few seasons, losing the real consistency of my routine on how I do analysis each week and just an overall — who cares, we can just ride projections/ownership to the finish line mentality.
But for whatever reason, this week has brought back an old school feel to it. One where we can appreciate the “bad” content that is out there for driving sheep like thinking on certain plays while we focus on guys who for no good reason are being ignored after just two weeks.
AMBUSH CORE PLAY
CARSON WENTZ
I have no issues going down here this week. It’s going to be a common build to punt the value at Quarterback & that often does work out — after all, I am the one who invented playing Taysom Hill at QB and getting almost nothing from him but still min cashing if that’s all your goal is. QB doesn’t matter, because their ceilings are limited generally and there is only 1 player here so the chalk % rarely kills you. That said, the Vikings are my top bet of the season thus far and while they won’t blow out the Bengals, they will do fine. Minnesota’s beat up OL also gets a soft landing spot with the Bengals, who have just 3 sacks in two relatively soft games so far.
UPDATE – I had Hurts here but given the rest of the plays I opted to go with the cheap min price punt on QB1 this week. Hurts is a fantastic naked sleeper QB though (or play him with AJ Brown who has that 125 yard, 2 TD game looming)
ALSO LIKE
- JALEN HURTS … The only premium QB on the board and nobody’s touching him. A statement game is coming from Philly after folks think they “cheated” vs the Chiefs. And while Barkley destroyed the Rams last year, I think it’s Hurts who gets the chunk plays here and the touchdowns.
- DRAKE MAYE … I won’t quit him until he drops two weeks in a row at his price along with the cheap WR he has.
AMBUSH CORE PLAY
ALVIN KAMARA
Kamara has long beeen a guy who just does okay as chalk but once everyone fades him he smashes. This is that spot. He has also done fantastic vs Seattle and when the Saints wear their color rush uni’s. Both happening today.
ALSO LIKE
- Bucky Irving – He is my clear second RB. Outside of a Mike Evans TD, I don’t see Baker throwing it a lot.
- JK Dobbins – Some are hyping up the narrative train and that’s fine, but it’s Sean Payton making sure he gets his guy a TD back against his home team that will make the narrative work. Too many folks are riding the Chargers off their 2-0 start, while Denver has the better defense and equal offense.
- Bijan Robinson & Jonathan Taylor … Right now these two are right behind Barkley in terms of just consider them at all points. RB is a deep spot though this week so I don’t feel you need both.
AMBUSH CORE PLAYS
JaMARR CHASE
Coming off a massive volume game and should keep getting that volume with Burrow out
ELIC AYOMANOR
Glad to see everyone realizing he is a good receiver and was arguably one of the best ones in the draft. No reason to not think he won’t continue to put up insane rookie volume numbers while at this low price on DraftKings (relative to the price of course). He is a steal and a must own.
ALSO LIKE
- Tetairoa McMillan … If Elic was not still dirt cheap I would put McMillan up in that must play spot. Atlanta has nobody that will cover him and it’s nice to see Bryce just locking in on his WR1.
- Justin Jefferson … Duh #1
- Nico Collins …. Duh #2
- AJ Brown
- Rome Odunze
DO NOT LIKE
- CeeDee Lamb & George Pickens … I can see Pickens having a good 1H and then fizzling out. Really like the Bears anyways, so I’m gonna pass on the Lamb/Pickens/Dak chalk, but I wanted to at least give them their love
AMBUSH CORE PLAY
Is Brock Bowers playing? Okay, good – next question. And it’s Washington? Please.
ALSO LIKE
- TJ Hockenson
- Tucker Kraft
Here are the defenses that I am considering this week, ranked in order of preference
- Chicago Bears … Dak on the road + adjustments from the Bears coaching staff = turnovers
- Cleveland Browns
- New England Patriots
OVERALL CORE PLAYS
- Alvin Kamara
- JaMarr Chase
- Elic Ayomanor
- Brock Bowers
FAVORITE BETS
- Vikings -2.5
- Broncos ML
- Bears ML
EXTRA GAME LEANS
- Coming off a big SNF defensive performance the Falcons fail to cover the -5.5 against the Panthers with Carolina possibly even pulling off the home upset. Carolina is trending up finally after a couple of seasons and while they’ve started slow again, we should not be laying 6 points at home.
- Packers/Browns will either turn into a wild wild west shootout with Flacco throwing for 400 and 4 TD or this is that 17-6 game. Watch the 1H and then adjust in game. This game scares me a lot.