Quick DFS and betting reminder of the week
You don’t need to be perfect, you just need to be right. Kinda like in life you dont need to be a good person you just need to do good things. Or something philosophical like that.
The point is — I don’t need to pay attention to “chalk” and “hype” and “should” scenarios. I just need to follow my specific things that I feel confident in, play them and move on. This is the benefit of being a “few” lineup player instead of a “multi” lineup player.
Multi-lineup analysis is always trying to solve every scenario. You can’t do that. But you can pick 2-3 and be right on them. So just keep that in mind. Find your lane you trust and stay in it.
TOP GAME OF THE WEEK
All that said I am going to throw this game up to the top and then let you noodle on my favorite plays below, because this game is go all in or just skip it all together.
Washington at LA Chargers: Daniels is returning & has a perceived difficult match-up against a good defense but the Chargers do allow 4.5 yards per carry & between Daniels and JCM there could be a big run for Washington. Everything in this game, and I mean everything, should scream that the Chargers are going to win by 7 points. But they’re sitting at just -2.5 and while I dont buy much into vegas this game is one I cannot figure out. There’s fireworks here and it’ll be Washington scoring on the ground, Chargers through the air.
There is no real good Ambush play here at QB this week. Just a bunch of ‘meh’ and kinda like them type plays. In short, I have no QB pick today, play anyone…
MY ‘Lean’ For Ambush QB:
Justin Herbert or Jayden Daniels
The ‘Popular’ Play Them QB:
JUSTIN FIELDS (DK: $5600, FD: $7700) … So Justin Fields is going to be almost 40% owned because he faces the Cowboys? Yeah, math checks out I guess. I never like teams who are coming off a TIE – it always feels like you had an incomplete week and no closure on the prior game which leads to a complete loss the next week. So, Jets win, and it’s hard dto think they win solely on their defense.
KYLER MURRAY (DK: $5900, FD: $7500) … The Titans definitely play slow, but they also play poorly on offense which should lead to a couple short fields for Murray to likely rush one in. Arizona’s off extra rest & with all the rushing QB chalk going to Justin Fields I don’t mind Murray for only $300 more and just a solid of a floor.
DAVID MONTGOMERY (DK: $5200, FD: $6300) … A Cincinnati native who is coming off a light work week against a decent defense. Now drawing the Bengals defense and as the Lions go on the road, their QB generally leans on the ground game more.
ASHTON JEANTY (DK: $6700, FD: $7200) … Love RB going into Indy against the Colts and he’s gonna touch it 20+ times.
BREECE HALL (DK: $5600, FD: $7000) … I may not be very bright, but I have some basic math here. The RB2 vulture Braelon Allen is out to IR, Justin Fields is heavy chalk, the Cowboys defense should be vulnerable … But Hall is cheap and not chalky at all? Give me Breece as our top AMBUSH RB option today to get into the end zone + compile a heavy workload.
ALSO REALLY LIKE:
- Jacory Croskey Merritt – WSH – $5100 … Nobody is boosted more than he is with Daniels returning.
- Rachaad White – TB – $4700 … He comes in as the chalky load me up for cheap option. Dont hate it but also dont need it IMO.
NICO COLLINS (DK: $6800, FD: $8100)
On one hand I see this game being a little bit of a dud entertainment wise, but on the other hand where is CJ Stroud going to be selling insurance if he leaves Baltimore without throwing a touchdown to Nico Collins? Dont be stupid CJ.
JAXON SMITH NJIGBA (DK: $7100, FD: $8500)
Much like Nico scoring a TD feels easy button, so too is JSN getting 6+ catches against the Bucs.
CHARGERS WR …
All the Chargers WR. QJ for $5700, Keenan for $5600, Ladd for $5500. Pick your poison and go from there. One of em has a solid game.
RASHEED SHAHEED (DK: $4500, FD: $5300)
Hi. It’s time. Yes, there is an obvious TE play that I’m going to mention below as Taysom Hill returns, but what gets overlooked is how it opens it up for a few more deep shots down the field & I would NOT be shocked when its Taysom who makes the throw to Shaheed on a long bomb. 67 yards, right to left, touchdown Shaheed against the 30th ranked pass defense in receptions & 31st ranked in yards New York Football Giants.
OTHER POOL OF GUYS IM ON:
- Ditto Tampa, but pricing not the same
- Michael Pittman
- George Pickens
Also Consider: Tyler Warren, Trey McBride
CAROLINA PANTHERS … Keep sleeping on this defensive unit but when they get a below average offense at home they are prety damn good.
That’s it… That’s the list.
OVERALL CORE PLAYS
QB – Justin Herbert (LAC)
RB – Ashton Jeanty (LV)
WR – Rasheed Shaheed (NO)
DST – Carolina (D/ST)
FAVORITE BETS
- Saints ML
- Panthers ML
- Jets ML
EXTRA GAME LEANS
- Broncos +4.5
- Commanders / Chargers OVER 47.5