A very fun Thanksgiving slate is upon us and a Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families. Those who are haters of the Holiday can just move right along and go celebrate whatever they want, because this is the best week, day and time of the year both for food, family and yes — Sports!
The method this week actually shifts to building MORE lineups than my usual 1-3 lineup builds and with that it’s more important to fade plays and just have the mindset that you are building one CORE across various lineups and the CORE either includes something or excludes a few. If you are wrong, it’s no different than being wrong on one big play.
MY QUICK GAME SCRIPTS
LIONS vs PACKERS easily most competitive game. Unless the Lions just turn it on and blowout the Packers and if they do, that means Goff has 4 TD.
CHIEFS offensive line and their own defense playing high shell coverage is what slows the afternoon game down for a while, but eventually sustained drives win out.
The Ravens going back to ground first, slow it down, and protect their defense leads to the night capper being a snooze under.
CHALK
Patrick Mahomes … It seems the thoughts of getting Mahomes at an ownership discount on a slate with Dak, Goff, Lamar and the return of Burrow is not gonna happen. He’s likely 40% owned and the Mahomes pass funnel through the Cowboys defense is going to be a popular play today. He’s a good bet for 260+ passing yards and at least one touchdown. But is he a good bet for 3 TD and 300 yards? No. Is Dak, or likely Goff or even … Joey B???? Yes. They are.
AMBUSH PLAY
Jared Goff: It’s a stack slate. Goff is the one who gives me Gibbs and St. Brown. Not a bad way to start things off.
FADE
Lamar Jackson … Next week. Next week we see Lamar go all out. The Ravens are winning, he is cruising along and on a short week & it is Lamar who is going to keep himself cautious. I’ll cautiously fade.
CHALK
Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Javonte Williams
AMBUSH PLAYS
In general, paying up here and also going back to the same wells as last week.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Best player in football this season. Next question. That said, David Montgomery stack with Gibbs is a viable pivot off Goff if you are rolling Love along with them on the other end.
Derrick Henry: Lean Henry over Lamar for who gets it done on the obvious ground spot vs the Bengals
Javonte Williams: Kinda shocked he is going to be the 2nd/3rd highest owned RB on this slate – but I am in favor of it.
FADES
Chase Brown … Brown is nothing more than a late night pivot decision. With Higgins out and Burrow coming back he feels like the obvious usage play for the Bengals, but I don’t have a ton of faith in either A) Him producing or B) The Bengals posting a 30+ spot to warrant using him just to get accumulation stats.
CHALK
JaMarr Chase, Rashee Rice, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens … It’s clear every lineup will have 1 if not 2 of the ‘big’ WR of the 2025 season at the moment and on this slate.
AMBUSH PLAYS
Rashee Rice … If you do not like Rice then obviously you want the Mashed Potatoes, right? Thanks, I’ll be here all week. He’s in that 10+ targets per game territory, is a likely 7 catch for 70 yard play right now with red zone usage and TD upside. The 20 spot is his expectation.
Amon-Ra St. Brown … Lions, Lions, Lions. They will not go down without using Gibbs and Brown. There’s just no other path here IMO. Yeah, Williams is tempting for $4800 with Raymond out and maybe a dart on TeSlaa if he is in on a showdown spot, but it’s ARSB who gets the 2nd touchdown if anyone does. Dan Campbell taking over the play calling is the main pick here. He’s going to find ways to get the ball into Gibbs and St. Brown’s hands a ton. Expect a creative red zone play.
Christian Watson … If nothing else, the Watson 54.5 yards prop looks like it would be worth biting into. He’s good for 1+ 20 yard pass play and odds are he see’s two of them today which gives us the floor we want both on the props side & in DFS. One big cut in the open field and he’s got you a 60 yard touchdown.
Also Dont Mind / Value: KaVontae Turpin, Matthew Golden, Andrei Iosivas, Rashod Bateman.
From a depth perspective, the Chiefs have the WR depth and throwing versus Dallas is never bad. Worthy/ Ju-Ju/Hollywood are fine as value third options too as we just fill out lineups. WR is not that deep IMO, just top heavy.
FADES
No specific fade, but Lamb/Pickens to me are way overpriced.
CHALK
Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce
AMBUSH PLAYS
Playing Two Tight Ends: Guys like Isaiah Likely, Luke Musgrave, Mike Gesicki are basically free and offer a shit ton more upside in that you are locking in a stud RB or WR. Pick the team you want to stack and throw in their TE with your build today. For me? Likely, Musgrave and Anthony Firsker I hardly Know Her are my guys
FADES
Kelce
There
Should
Not
Be
Defense
And
Special
Teams
On
A
Three
Game
Slate
Thank
You
For
Coming
To
My
Ted
Talk
And
The
Play
Is
The
Chiefs
FAVORITE PLAYS
Jahmyr Gibbs
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Isiah Likely (Best Value)
FAVORITE ALL IN GAME STACKS
Ranked in Order …
- Packers/Lions
- Chiefs/Cowboys
- Bengals/Ravens
FAVORITE BETS
- Lions -2.5 (39-26)
- Chiefs -3.5 (27-20)
- Bengals/Ravens UNDER 51.5 (23-9)