CHALK
Josh Allen (BUF), Justin Herbert (LAC), Tyrod Taylor (NYJ): Overall, ownership is actually kinda flat on this slate at the QB position. Welcome to another edition of “QB doesnt matter”.
Also this week we have the return of C.J. Stroud to Houston, Sam Darnold vs his former team and Minnesota Gophers legend Max Brosmer getting a start.
AMBUSH PLAYS
Trevor Lawrence (JAX – $5400 / $7200)
This is mostly a “stack him and ride with it” spot as the Jags look like one of the better stack plays we have seen. They are coming off B2B wins and have finally strung together multiple games with solid offensive production. The Lawrence-Etienne-Thomas-Meyers full all in stack is where the offense comes from and it should all flow through Lawrence.
Matthew Stafford (LAR – $7000 / $8000)
Stafford and the Rams are playing better than everyone else in the NFL right now. Carolina’s usually better defensively at home but the pass rush is not likely to get much effectiveness on Stafford, who when they need it in the red zone, is able to do what he wants and throw touchdowns to Adams, Nacua or maybe even Parkinson this week.
FADE
Josh Allen – I think we get a light game script here for both teams towards a lower scoring game. Plus the Steelers themselves should have longer sustained drives here, keeping Allen on the side and his ceiling performance is not happening here.
CHALK
DeVon Achane (MIA), Breece Hall (NYJ), Christian McCaffrey (SF): Not much wrong with any of these guys.
AMBUSH PLAYS
Quinshon Judkins (CLE – 6200 / 7800)
Sanders being a diva is the only path Judkins doesnt wind up with 15 fpts today. He’s basically their entire offense in a snow game.
DeVon Achane (MIA – 8300 / 8700)
He’s the heavy chalk play and the main usage within the Dolphins offense.
Devin Neal (NO – $5000 / $5900)
I would be very shocked if the Saints do not turn Neal loose this week. They know that Kendre Miller is injury prone and going forward into next season RB is going to be a huge area they need to address. Neal’s been used often in the passing game when on the field too, with 5 catches last week and probably should get into those scenarios again this week when its 3rd and more than a couple yards.
FADE
CMC if anyone from the chalk list.
CHALK
Puca Nacua (LAR), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), Jaylen Waddle (MIA), Michael Wilson (ARI): Dont hate too much in this list, but can definitely see Puca having one of those 13 catch, 150 yard games…
AMBUSH PLAY
Brian Thomas Jr (JAX – 6200 / 6500)
So Thomas is back and we get to see him paired with Meyers against the Titans horrific defense.
Nico Collins (HOU – 6700 / 8100)
Juts below the Bucs secondary is Indy’s secondary & without Daniel Jones having two good feet, we could see shorter Indy drives too helping with the opportunity boost for Houston’s offense to have more possessions. CJ Stroud coming back isn’t great overall for the receivers given his play – but he does love him some Nico.
Quentin Johnston (LAC – 4900 / 6000)
Everyone has forgotten about Q’s dominant Week 18 game vs the Raiders a year ago and now he is sub 5k here after a hot start and recent normal Johnston’ing type production. Nice buy low opportunity to get back on track.
Michael Wilson (ARI – 5900 / 7100)
Everything trending the right way here. The QB-WR connection is locked in and the Bucs secondary is once again reeling and I don’t think Marvin Harrison Jr. is a lock to suit up or be heavily used. But certainly that is something we’ll monitor.
FADE
JSN – I get that we have Darnold vs his former team. Dont be shocked if we see a Minnesota upset today in a grind out out lower scoring game.
CHALK
Orande Gadsen (LAC), Brock Bowers (LV)
AMBUSH PLAY
TJ Hockenson (MIN – 3500 / 5000)
How do you help a QB in his first start in a hostile environment? That veteran TE!
Juwan Johnson (NO – 4200 / 5500)
Johnson is good for 7+ targets, should catch 4 of them at least, should have 40-50 yards. TE can score vs the Dolphins too if the Saints get their red zone figured out.
FADE
Orande Gadsen
CHALK
- Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets
AMBUSH PLAYS
- Texans
- Bills
- Browns
FADE
- Dolphins
FAVORITE PLAYS
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
DeVon Achane (MIA)
Quinshon Judkins (CLE)
Brian Thomas Jr (JAX)
FAVORITE ALL IN GAME STACKS
Jaguars vs Titans
Cardinals vs Buccaneers
FAVORITE BETS
Buccaneers -3.5
Browns +5.5
Bills / Steelers UNDER 45.5
Falcons / Jets OVER 38.5