AMBUSH PLAY
Sam Darnold (DK: 5500) … A completion % machine against a terrible defense at reducing your completion %. No pressure from Atlanta on Darnold will allow him to thrive through JSN & Sheed. The other list of QB I am considering would be guys like Trevor Lawrence (250 yards, 2 TD, blah), Tyler Shough (Some random tip ball will hurt him, but he’s fucking cheap and playing well enough), or Bo Nix (dont love the spot for Denver off the OT game on the road last week). Just take Darnold and move on to win at RB/WR/TE….
SLEEPER QB OF THE WEEK
- JJ McCarthy (DK: $4700) … Wait… What? Yep. The kid is going to play well. Book it.
Love the RB spot this week. Pricing is pretty flat in the mid range and the ownership should get spread out on other plays which I’m not fond of as much.
AMBUSH PLAY
Kyren Williams (DK: $6600) … What are we doing with this price? This is an easy 2x spot, no? Rams get in and get out, get right game, 3, maybe 4 Kyren Williams touchdowns.
TOP RB PLAYS
- Bucky Irving (DK: $7000) … Irving got 17 carries last week, he’s more than good to go here. He was one of my favorite college RB in a while & now is going to forever torment me in the NFC South. Play him, don’t think twice about it.
- Josh Jacobs (DK: $8600) … They’re daring us to take the Bears & the points in what is a nice Lambeau home game for Green bay to ascend up on the up and coming Bears. Jacobs and the rushing game looks to be healthy here with 10 days off from their Thanksgiving win and a Bears secondary that is improving — meaning GB has to not let Love ruin it for them.
- James Cook (DK: $7800) … Tough to love Cook a TON over someone like Achane or Hall – but I see this being Buffalo defense and rushing day. Allen vulture is a concern.
- Chase Brown (DK: $6700) … You gotta run on the Bills, not just try to carve them up in the air. If Cincinnati does show up, it’s through Chase Brown today. But I’m still leaning on the Bills defense making this their best game of the year.
AMBUSH PLAY
- Justin Jefferson (DK: $6900) … Look, JJ cannot be in my “sleeper” section and then not try to take the bait on a cheap JJ who hasn’t had anything good to write about in a while. Washington’s got the secondary to help that problem out.
TOP WR PLAYS
- Jaxson Smith-Njigba (DK: $9000) … Should be #1 on all of our lists
- Jakobi Meyers / Brian Thomas Jr … Even if you do not use Lawrence, I would definitely have one of his catchers here. The funnel should go through them with the Colts pass defense being vulnerable and also Parker Washington being out. Meyers has been good since coming over in the trade, but Thomas is eventually going to have that 2025 soph slump buster game
- Terry McLaurin (DK: $5200) … Gets his QB1 back, more passing from Washington.
- Devaughn Vele (DK: $3700) … Absolutely I am a fan. This is more about Shough though. He’s proven he will stand in the pocket and throw over the middle which is something the Saints have not had in about 5+ years at Quarterback. Vele is going to get 7 targets again this week, he’s going to haul in 4-5 of them for 50 yards, and might be the lone TD for the Saints receivers. Way better play than Olave IMO.
GUT CALLS
- Michael Pittman (DK: $5400) … Absolutley love a Michael Pittman anytime touchdown play here.
- Rashid Shaheed (DK: $4400) … Sheed is too cheap for the explosion he can do on the Falcons secondary deep.
AMBUSH PLAY
- Brock Bowers (DK: $6000) … I’m back on the Brock Bowers bandwagon here. So expect about 5 yards total. He hasn’t been good to me all season but there’s nobody else in his league right now. With the value at WR I think you can fit him in easily too. Pay here instead of McBride.
OTHER TOP TE
- Brenton Strange (DK: $3900)
- Luke Musgrave (DK: $2600)
- Packers (DK: $3100)
- Buccaneers (DK: $3600) … Saints OL on the road vs the Tampa front is dangerous.
- Bills (DK: $3400) … They show up and get to Burrow.
OVERALL TOP 5 GAME THEORY CALLS
- Pittsburgh / Baltimore is a game you want to watch but don’t want to touch unless you are all in. Feels like this game ends the tenure for one of the coaches in this game even though the Steelers side is Tomlin saying fuck this, I’m out and the Baltimore side is them realizing that Marcus Freeman is their new HC….
- The Packers and Bills make statement games at home.
- The Rams bounce back
- QB once again does not matter
- No game shoots the moon.
FAVORITE PLAYS
- Sam Darnold (SEA)
- Kyren Williams (LAR)
- Justin Jefferson (MIN)
- Rashid Shaheed (SEA)
FAVORITE ALL IN GAME STACKS
- None? Maybe INDY/Jacksonville or Washington/Minnesota
FAVORITE BETS
- Commanders/Vikings OVER 43.5
- Vikings ML
- 3 team teaser (sucker play, I know): Packers + Rams + Bucs
Will update with some prop plays closer to lock ….