QB doesn’t matter. Welcome to 280 and 3 TD is good enough/great slate unless you wanna just say give me Josh Allen in another Bills Circle the Wagon bananas game, then I just want someone throwing for 280 and 3.
Baker Mayfield – $5700
Bucs will focus and the OL will give him time. I think there is a MASSIVE advantage for the Bucs to go 4 wide today and let Baker chop of the Panthers.
Joe Burrow – $6500
Not sure if he is gonna have fun, but one thing you always do is trust a team who just got shutout. It sounds weird, but the QB-WR always come back the next week and do extremely well when shutout. This is one of my 283 million random theories I have. Burrow to Chase x2.
I want home RB for bad teams or RB for teams who must win today. Sadly I see very few of those available. But we do have three clear studs who are likely top plays & I would rank them as such (Gibbs 1, Achane 2, Bijan 3)… Now for my guys
Quinshon Judkins – $6000
The perfect price range that fits with how the WR depth is. You can go ahead an pay for two RB with say Gibbs & Bijan (my fade) or Achane, but Judkins does get to draw a Bills defense which still sucks against the run & is probably gonna have to ask Josh Allen to bail their asses out again.
Jahmyr Gibbs – $8500
The lions are going to roll & Gibbs is the pivot off Bijan and Achane, although Achane is a close second.
THE VALUE / MID RANGE RB 2
Breece Hall – $5900 … Hall feels forgotten. Saints defense is playing better, but their pass defense is what is moving up as the rush defense is just benefiting from the offense having more sustained drives. We could see Hall take advantage of a little too much aggressive DL play & bust one to the house.
Texans RB Situation … With Chubb and Marks both banged up, this really has me worried about Houston overall today. The options here after that suck, it’s a mess, someone probably drops 15 and does enough as a value RB. I’ll pass I guess.
Aaron Jones – $5200 & Jordan Mason – $5200 … Similarly, Jones and Mason should split today. It’s a scenario though where I kinda dont mind using both. If they were at home this would be auto-lock one if not both. On the road the Vikings seem to have some demons in New York.
Mike Evans – $6,300
Matchups matter a lot less when its a must win and you have a stud option like Evans here. He’s going to do what he does vs Carolina — score — he has 11 touchdowns over the last 8 meetings vs Carolina & is going to eat up Jaycee Horn whenever he is on him. Give me two Evans touchdowns today.
DK Metcalf – $5400
With what feels like a slew of high priced stud WR that are tempting we’re gonna want to find some mid or value third option to plug in. How is Metcalf not scoring vs the Lions? Please, explain that to me — I’ll wait.
JaMarr Chase – $8,600
Burrow & Chase are either putting up insane numbers or another goose egg. I cannot imagine them doing another goose egg here.
CeeDee Lamb – $7,800
Another stud vs good defense play, but Lamb’s going to get 7-120 and hasn’t scored since Thanksgiving, but with the Cowboys most likely throwing a little more this week (at home they seem to do that IMO), then I think we get Lamb into the end zone.
THE ALSO LIKE TIER
- Nico Collins ($7,500) … Game script could be a negative here for any upside
- Tetairoa McMillan / Jalen Coker
- Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8400) … Beat up secondary & at home. Jameo though is the better play given the other $ we’re spending in lineups
- Chris Olave ($6500) … Volume & good Chemistry w/ Shough is hard to ignore
- Adonai Mitchell – $4500
This is the best position on the slate, because we have three options that are pretty safe here & are all cheap IMO. Playing two is a good idea.
Oronde Gadsen – $4,100
I want to believe Herbert is the right play, but with his injury the performance has not had a ceiling spot of late. So we’re better served looking at the options to get us exposure to him and Gadsen is coming on really well & is just a much better $4100 play than trying to guess which WR gets it done.
Juwan Johnson – $4,000
Just no options for the Saints passing game outside of Johnson and Olave. They’ll let Shough keep making plays & on third downs I expect Johnson to be a big factor.
Darren Waller – $3,500
Love him as a correlation with Borrow & Chase on the other side.
Harold Fannin Jr. – $4,500
Buffalo’s a good defense vs the TE, but this is someone who is getting insane target volume from Sanders & at his chalk it’s pretty much only an injury that prevents him from being an optimal pick.
- Texans (DK: $4000, FD: $5000)
- Saints (DK: $3400, FD: $3500)
FAVORITE PLAYS
- Quinshon Judkins
- Mike Evans
- Oronde Gadsen
FAVORITE ALL IN GAME STACKS
- Chargers / Cowboys
- Bucs / Panthers
- Bengals / Dolphins: Burrow & Chase side
FAVORITE BETS
- Bucs / Panthers OVER 45.5
- Vikings / Giants UNDER 43.5
- Bengals -4.5
- Jaguars ML
- Browns +10.5
- Ravens ML +
- Chase Anytime TD + Evans Anytime TD + Gibbs Anytime TD Parlay