Let’s quickly cover some game theory aspects today
Pittsburgh will clinch the AFC North with a win. Buyer beware on just locking them into winning this game as it is Pittsburgh and the NFL does need some Week 18 real drama next week.
Jacksonville is on a roll against now eliminated Indianapolis. I don’t think that shifts how this game is played too much either way.
Tampa Bay is reeling and is in almost a must win scenario, although if Carolina loses at home to Seattle who must win as well then you have a good Week 18 game there. I think we focus on this NFC South must win spot as both the Tampa/Miami and Seattle/Carolina games should prove competitive.
Philly/Buffalo is about two weeks too late. Philly really has nothing to gain or lose because they should finish as the third seed. In a way, that gives them the ability this week to maybe play a little loose and get right? If you are banking on Philly’s offense getting hot in the playoffs this would be the game that happens and thus I want a second lineup that is all in on this game.
New England can keep the pressure on Buffalo with a win today at the lowly Jets. If there were to be a shocking upset today, it has to be this one. But, no, I’m not gonna go on that limb.
And then we have Saints/Titans, both with their rookie QB coming off wins and the Giants/Raiders, both pretending they aren’t tanking even though they are tanking… Saints/Titans could be a fun game. Giants/Raiders…. Ugh. Dart vs Jeanty and that’s it.
AMBUSH PLAY
Trevor Lawrence (DK: $6100, FD: $8000)
Playing too well week to week to ignore. I would not bank on another 30 or 40 point outing here, but with the good dome conditions & Colts vulnerable secondary for passing touchdowns we have to buy into Lawrence being in that give me 280 & 3 range as a solid floor.
OTHER NOTABLES
- Tyler Shough: It’s basically Shough to Olave and Juwan and then move on. No reason to see New Orleans changing that & the Titans defense probably won’t cause him to have a terrible game.
- Drake Maye: The Jets are just so, so, bad.
- Allen/Hurts: Yeah, so Philly can turn it on and that could mean Hurts. But there’s no reason for him to be out running intentionally right now. For that reason I am leaning other options in a Philly/Buffalo game stack and riding with Josh Allen as the QB in such game stack.
AMBUSH PLAY
Chase Brown (DK: $7400, FD: $8000)
The one game I really didn’t mention in the summary above is the highest total on the slate — but I am not ignoring it. Temps are decent in Cincy this week with winds only 10-15 mph. While the Saints are getting some pub for finishing the season strong, it’s the Bengals who I think are getting overlooked in doing the same on offense. Outside of that one really cold shutout vs Baltimore they’re rolling with Burrow back at QB. A 30 point game is likely here again & that means Brown will produce.
Saquon Barkley (DK: $7600, FD: $8700)
My trust in Barkley over chalky Ahston Jeanty (yes, he is cheaper) is just astronomical. I cannot trust anything with the Raiders, but I can trust the Buffalo rush defense to be gashed up.
Rico Dowdle (DK: $6000, FD: $7300)
Strong gut feeling the Panthers win this game today & that’s not gonna be Bryce Young going bananas.
Jonathan Taylor (DK: $7800)
You can run on the Jags & Denver had that chance last week but just didn’t stop the Jags offense and got baited in a shootout. If the Colts are gonna produce today it’s through Taylor
OTHER NOTABLES
- Michael Carter … RB is very deep this week with it only being a short 10 game slate. Typical late year NFL though. As long as the Cardinals trust Carter with his floor touches he will get it done. Teams have rushed for over 125 ypg the last three vs Cincy & most of the year tbh.
- Travis Etienne … He scores, finishes with a 14 FPTS game.
- Ashton Jeanty … Yeah, fine, ok.
- Tyjae Spears … Might be better as a SGP anytime touchdown play than in DFS.
AMBUSH PLAYS
Chris Olave (DK: $7200, FD: $8100)
The volume against a weak secondary is just too much to fade. Titans are bottom 10 in receptions, yards, pass comp % and Olave is finishing strong.
- UPDATE: I know I made him cover boy and put him as favorite plays, but I am bumping JSN up above Olave personally as I really am buying into the Seattle/Carolina game more than the Saints continuing their strong run.
Jaxon Smith Njigba (DK: $8600, FD: $9600)
Olave two weeks ago, Evans last week, and now JSN this week. He will score, lock that in & in a game that should be very competitive I think he’ll manage to get over 100 (if not 150) yards receiving.
OTHER NOTABLES
Brian Thomas (DK: $5200, FD: $6300)
Parker Washington missed the last game vs the Colts & is back this week. That should hurt Thomas in some eyes, but I think it opens things up more. It’s been a rough second year for Thomas with no 100 yard receiving games, and picking any of the Jags WR is tough, but I’m sticking with BTJ.
WanDale Robinson (DK: $5700, FD: $6100)
Slayton’s kinda cheap here and worth a shot if you need salary relief as well.
- ADD: Tre Tucker – Great value on DraftKings with Bowers out and needing some cheap WR3 options.
AMBUSH PLAY
Brenton Strange (DK: $4000, FD: $5600)
Lawrence naked might be the route, but Etienne any of the WR and then bam, we have a Brenton Strange TE right to left across your screen for 7 yards. Lock it in.
OTHER NOTABLES
- Trey McBride (DK: $7500, FD: $8000): TE1 vs the worst TE defense in the league. Sure, its a lot of $ for TE, but he is basically WR1.
- Moliki Matavao (DK: $2500, FD: $4000, You: Who the fuck is this guy??????)
- Patriots
- Steelers
- Browns (Very sneaky and cheap)
FAVORITE PLAYS
Trevor Lawrence
Chase Brown
Jaxon Smith Njigba
FAVORITE ALL IN GAME STACKS
Seahawks/Panthers
Cardinals/Bengals
Eagles/Bills
FAVORITE BETS
Seattle/Carolina OVER 42.5
Carolina +7
Philly/Buffalo OVER 44.5
System Plays
- Colts +5.5
- Dolphins +5.5