Monday baseball with two weeks left in the regular season. Eight games on the MAIN tonight, and of course the Dodgers get tucked into a 6:40 PM start in Cincinnati so we can’t touch them. Great American Ballpark, the Dodgers, a Monday night… and it’s on the Turbo. Thanks.
What we do get is the Padres at Coors Field in 86 degrees against a Rockies bullpen that has a 10.71 ERA over the last week. Not a typo. Ten. Seventy-one. So you already know where tonight starts, the only question is how much of your salary you want to spend getting there.
WEATHER
- Yankees at Twins: Damp, 59 degrees and a little rain in the area. They’ll get it in.
- Roofs in Toronto and Arizona. Everything else clear.
REID DETMERS (DK: $8800)
Last time out it was 6 innings, 0 runs, 9 strikeouts. Tonight it’s a Mariners lineup that sits third on the slate in strikeout rate, and Detmers is carrying a 28% K rate and a 1.04 WHIP into it. The model has him nearly 20 points clear of the next arm on the slate. I’m not getting cute here — you play him and win the slate with the bats.
QUINN MATHEWS (DK: $7700)
The Giants are dead last against four-seamers and dead last against sliders. Those two pitches are 64% of what Mathews throws. I’m not saying he’s a stud, I’m saying San Francisco can’t hit what he’s throwing and they’re tied for the lowest team total on the slate.
WILL WARREN (DK: $7300)
Went 6 innings, 1 run, 8 strikeouts last time. The Twins actually handle fastballs pretty well, so he’s more of a salary saver than a ceiling play, but at this price in a damp ballpark I’ll take it.
OTHER THOUGHTS
- Troy Melton: In a dome and righties have a .235 wOBA against him. If you want to be weird for SP2, this is the weird.
- Kade Anderson: The reverse splits should come back to the norm at some point. Worth a longshot flyer.
PADRES
Sugano at Coors. Almost 2 homers per nine, hitters are crushing his cutter and his four-seamer, and when he’s gone you get the worst bullpen on the slate by a country mile. San Diego’s team total is nearly two runs higher than anyone else tonight. Tatis and Merrill are both slugging around .600 over their last 50 PA. Giddy up.
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Luis Campusano: 3-for-4 with a homer off Sugano
YANKEES
Dean Kremer gives up 2 homers per nine. Also Aaron Judge has 4 career homers off of him in 17 at bats — more on that in a minute.
- Aaron Judge
- Ben Rice
- Luis Garcia Jr
- Spencer Jones
BRAVES & CUBS
Reynaldo Lopez throws his slider 31% of the time. The Cubs are the second best team in baseball against sliders. He just got knocked around for 6 runs in 4.2 innings his last time out. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman are both hitting like MVPs over the last 50 PA.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Alex Bregman
- Michael Conforto
BRAVES: Ozzie Albies & Michael Harris II
CATCHER
- Luis Campusano
- Ben Rice
- Austin Wells
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso – Duh
- Ben Rice
- Luis Garcia Jr
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Anthony Volpe
- Jake Cronenworth
THIRD BASE
- Kyle Karros
- Manny Machado
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Xander Bogaerts
- Anthony Volpe
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jackson Merrill
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Spencer Jones
OUTFIELD – TIER II
- Seiya Suzuki
- Cody Bellinger
- Dustin Harris
- Aaron Judge: 4 career homers off Kremer
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Atlanta Braves – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Jackson Merrill – OF – Padres
- Luis Garcia Jr – 1B – Yankees
- Zach Neto – SS – Angels
- Jose Siri – OF – Angels
- BONUS … Mickey Moniak – OF – Rockies
BETS
- Tigers ML
- White Sox ML