WEATHER
Braves at Cubs: 72 degrees and 89% humidity. Sticky. No real rain threat.
MAX FRIED (DK: $9000)
The Twins are projected to run nine right-handed bats out there and righties have a .260 wOBA against Fried. 0.4 homers per nine, a 0.99 WHIP, and his sweeper is sitting at a .033 wOBA against. Not a typo. Minnesota is tied for the lowest team total on the slate and rates 30 points below its usual tonight. Only went 3.1 innings last time but struck out 7 in them. Don’t care. Stud arm — go mid-tier bats with him.
ANDRE PALLANTE (DK: $8000)
Not a strikeout guy, so let’s be honest about the ceiling. But the Giants are 23rd in baseball against sliders and 24th against four-seamers, those two pitches are 62% of his arsenal, and he gives up 0.6 homers per nine. Last time: 5 innings, 1 run. San Francisco has one of the lowest team totals on the slate at 3.2. Mid arm — the safe SP2.
OTHER THOUGHTS
- Hunter Brown: The model’s number two, but the Royals are first in baseball against curveballs and sliders and only strike out 19% of the time. Not at $9500.
- Shane Baz: Fine, but in no mans land on pricing compared to others.
PADRES
Really like this game up north of the border & will back the road Tigers the most as Fisher’s very unproven IMO. It’s also young prospects do well season, which means guys like Max Clark suddenly do well and make us dream of drafting them way too early next year.
- Dillon Dingler
- Max Clark
- Riley Greene
- Colt Keith – Scratched last night, so watch that
PADRES
The Padres rate 26 points above their usual tonight for all the good reasons. Bad SP, the Park, bad bullpen, etc…., Tatis and Merrill are both slugging around .600 over their last 50 PA, and Tatis and Machado both went deep yesterday. And Coors is Xander Bogaerts’ best road park of his career: 1.083 OPS and 6 homers in 95 PA.
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Manny Machado
- Jackson Merrill
- Xander Bogaerts
MARINERS
Ryan Johnson gives up 1.9 homers per nine, the worst of any starter on the MAIN, lefties are hitting .348 wOBA off him and Seattle is projected to throw seven lefties at him. In the best homer park on the slate. Enter Lazaro Montes: .484 ISO in the split. Four-eighty-four. The Mariners rate 27 points above their usual. And then there’s Julio — Anaheim is the second best road park of his career: 1.114 OPS and 12 homers in 141 PA. He’s been cold over his last 50. Don’t care. Twelve is twelve. He’s my Chairman. Cheap enough to run with Gilbert, too.
- Lazaro Montes
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodriguez
- Dominic Canzone
ALSO LIKE
- Diamondbacks: Janson Junk’s last start: 3 innings, 8 earned, 0 strikeouts. Second highest team total on the slate. Nootbaar, Marte, Moreno.
CATCHER
- Dillon Dingler
- Ben Rice
- Gabriel Moreno
FIRST BASE
- Matt Olson
- Luis Garcia Jr
- Alec Burleson
SECOND BASE
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Michael Massey
- Ketel Marte
THIRD BASE
Shitty spot again, just take Manny.
- Manny Machado
- Kevin McGonigle
- Caleb Durbin
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Xander Bogaerts
- JP Crawford
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Lars Nootbaar
- Jackson Merrill
- Max Clark
- Riley Greene
OUTFIELD – TIER II
- Wilyer Abreu
- Nathan Lukes
- Spencer Jones
- Aaron Judge
- Lazaro Montes – OF – Mariners – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Max Clark – OF – Tigers
- Willson Contreras – 1B – Red Sox
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Padres
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Michael Massey – 2B – Royals
- Dillon Dingler – C – Tigers
- Spencer Jones – OF – Yankees
- BONUS … Wilyer Abreu – OF – Red Sox
BETS
- Padres / Rockies OVER 11.5