Case Keenum last threw an NFL pass in December 2023, got benched in that game, and is expected to start at quarterback for the Bears on Monday night. Chicago has scored 59 points and 3 points this season, in that order, and without Caleb Williams (hamstring) it is about to find out what a third number looks like. The betting market has already done its reaction: the Bears went from 1.5-point favorites to 3.5-point underdogs, and the total fell from 46.5 to 41.5. Run our 20,000 simulations at today’s numbers and Chicago covers 51.0% of the time and the Over hits 50.5%. The market moved exactly as far as it needed to.
The DFS field didn’t stop there. Philadelphia is 2-0 by a combined six points, playing without its top tight end, a guard and a tackle, and our simulations have the Eagles throwing about 24 passes against 29 runs. The crowd is still buying their receivers like it’s a shootout. Here is where our numbers part ways with the prices:
- The Eagles’ cheap receivers: four of them carry a combined 227% projected ownership in an offense built to throw 24 times.
- Jalen Hurts’ touchdown price: the market has him scoring 39% of the time; our model has 16%.
- Philadelphia’s backfield: Saquon Barkley is fairly priced to score, and the back behind him is priced as if he doesn’t exist.
- Chicago’s lead back: the fourth-highest ceiling in the pool, at 14% owned.
Model vs. market: anytime touchdowns
We converted projected rushing and receiving touchdowns into a probability of scoring at least once and compared it with the best price at the major US books. The ratio is how much of the market’s price our model supports.
| Player | Best price | Market | Model | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyPHI · RB | +100 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 0.99 |
| D’Andre SwiftCHI · RB | +110 | 47.6% | 39.7% | 0.83 |
| Jalen HurtsPHI · QB | +155 | 39.2% | 15.5% | 0.40 |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI · RB | +210 | 32.3% | 27.8% | 0.86 |
| Colston LovelandCHI · TE | +410 | 19.6% | 19.3% | 0.99 |
| Tank BigsbyPHI · RB | +675 | 12.9% | 21.7% | 1.68 |
Barkley played 16% of the snaps last week after a stinger, and he practiced in full by Friday. The books have him back at even money or shorter everywhere, and our model agrees almost to the decimal: 16 projected carries and 0.61 rushing touchdowns. Hurts is the gap. The market prices him like the goal-line back, but our projection gives him five carries and 0.17 rushing touchdowns, which is a 15.5% scorer, not a 39% one. Bigsby is the other side of that: the books set his rushing line at 11.5 yards, roughly three carries, while we have him at six carries and 35 yards. If we’re wrong about the workload, the bet loses small. If we’re right, it’s the best price on the board.
Swift is short of fair at 0.83, even though he’s had most of Chicago’s red-zone carries. A backup quarterback lowers the whole team’s scoring, and the touchdown board hasn’t fully caught up to that.
Model vs. market: ownership
Makai Lemon and Darius Cooper are each projected at 62.0% owned, with DeVonta Smith at 60.2% and Dontayvion Wicks at 42.8%. That’s 227 points of ownership across four receivers who will split roughly 24 simulated pass attempts. Cooper is the clearest case of pricing off last week’s box score: he caught the winning touchdown against Tennessee, and a $2,000 salary with a 3.2-point projection and a 7.0 ceiling is now on nearly two-thirds of rosters. Lemon’s ceiling is 16.5. Smith is the only one of the four whose ceiling (29.3, the highest in the pool) pays for his ownership.
The Bears side is empty. Swift’s 24.3 ceiling trails only Smith, Barkley and Hurts, and all three of them are at 30% or more. Swift is at 14.0%. Luther Burden III has an 18.5 ceiling, the best of any Chicago pass-catcher, at 6.6%. And 18.8% of the field is on Tyson Bagent, whose prop markets haven’t moved since Saturday while Keenum’s were updated Monday morning. We’d let the books make that call.
On defenses, the Eagles DST projects 7.1 points to Chicago’s 5.5 at 8.5% owned, against a quarterback who hasn’t played in nearly three years, facing a pass rush with three sacks in two games. Chicago’s front has five sacks and nine quarterback hits, and Philadelphia’s line is missing a guard and a tackle, so we simulate Hurts being sacked about twice.
Team context worth carrying
- Philadelphia: across Hurts’ 16 logged starts, Dallas Goedert caught 12 of his touchdown passes on 80 targets. Smith caught 4 on 110. With Goedert out, nobody on this roster has a red-zone role that size. That makes scoring hard to predict, and it’s why we’re not paying 39% for Hurts to fill the gap himself.
- Chicago: the Bears’ defense has been beaten through the air (0.404 EPA per dropback allowed) and has held up against the run (−0.065 EPA per carry). Philadelphia wants to run. The Eagles are favored because of Chicago’s quarterback, not because they have an easy matchup.
See the full showdown analysis. Captain board, every prop against our projection, the optimizer and exposure.
Captain and build
Swift is the captain. With Keenum at quarterback, Chicago’s offense runs through Swift: 14 projected carries, three targets as the checkdown, and most of the team’s red-zone carries so far. His ceiling is fourth in the pool, and his ownership is a fraction of the three players ahead of him. Hurts and Barkley go in the flex. That way we hold the Eagles’ likeliest scoring path at a normal multiplier while most of the field is paying for Philadelphia’s receivers. Burden is the Chicago pass-catcher: the highest ceiling among the Bears’ receivers, at 6.6% owned.
The last two spots are members-only. Get the full build, plus the Showdown Lab optimizer for your own.
The bets
- Saquon Barkley anytime TD, +100 (Fanatics; −105 at DraftKings). Model 49.3%, market 50.0%. It’s a fair price for the Eagles’ primary goal-line option, and the tight end who caught the most of Hurts’ touchdowns is out.
- Tank Bigsby anytime TD, +675 (BetMGM; +650 at FanDuel and Fanatics). Our model has 21.7% against a 12.9% price, the widest gap on the board. The books have him at about three carries and we have him at six. Keep it small.
- D’Andre Swift Over 10.5 receiving yards, −113 (FanDuel). We project 16.9 receiving yards on three targets. A quarterback who hasn’t taken a snap in nearly three years checks the ball down, and DraftKings already sits at 12.5.
No captain touchdown bet. Swift’s +110 needs 47.6% and our model has 39.7%. No spread or total either: the simulation lands on 51.0% for the Bears to cover and 50.5% for the Over, which is a coin flip after the vig. The sharpest market has the Over 42.5 at plus money, but the US books sit at 41.5, and at that number the edge is gone. Chicago’s moneyline at +170 implies 37.0%, and we have the Bears winning 35.8%.
Method: model touchdown probability = 1 − e−λ, where λ is projected rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Game-level numbers come from 20,000 simulations centered on the market’s team totals. All numbers are from the DailyAmbush showdown ratings, projections and Bureau board as of Monday morning. Lines move, so check your book before the 8:15 ET kickoff.