Those who have read my stuff for a while know that I avoid most of the Showdown slates when it comes to content, so that’s why this is the first article of this young 2026 NFL season and I don’t anticipate that to change. The 2 game slates I’ll dive into, but Showdown content to me is mostly noise and the way I am trending now with the intel and analysis automation feeds on the Dashboard, there’s no reason to not just be using that and the expanded projections & ratings logic.
What I have built here is not necessarily the only and best dashboard/model tool out there, but in an era when it’s increasingly easy for someone with a little foundation and time to setup an automated intelligence dashboard it is amazing to me how many of the other big name sites are still stuck in the past like it’s 2013 with the projections and data tools.
Yes, you are living in the now heavy AI-enabled DFS touting era. If you have questions or want to understand how my system is working I am happy to go through them in Discord, but I can tell you I have not seen anyone produce something like what we have on the backend for feeding data in and it should only continue to grow.
Lets go into the season now. I anticipate being still on Sunday morning content release schedule for NFL but likely am going to go back to pushing out articles on late Saturday night’s this year as much as possible.
MY FUTURE THOUGHTS
One of my biggest beefs with all of the seasonal projection and analysis minds out there is how we just mostly copy and paste last years Production with slight adjustments and assume it’s going to continue. One of the biggest edges you can have when it comes to bets and fantasy (or predictions — I’ll get to that in a minute), is finding the edge on bad lines or perceptions. Literally this is what everyone who tries to sell you their “edge” is claiming. Oh, pitty me, I got limited by the books because I had a model beating them on props or lines. It’s mostly bullshit and wanting to sound good, but in reality if you are ahead of the league on who is going to be good or bad then yes, you have an edge.
Remember The Titans
So early in the season we look for that team to fade, but historically there’s always more value in finding the bad team to get behind. So here’s teams which are generally regarded as not that good for this season in any random order
- Cardinals, Dolphins, Jets, Titans, Browns and Raiders
Within that grouping there’s going to be a team who comes out and starts the season with ‘flare’ or ‘sparkle’. There’s even a great chance that one of those teams winds up making a strong & serious playoff push. While there is another tier above them that includes the Giants, Saints & Vikings, I am focused more on the really bad tier above. So what stands out among that group? Head Coach and Quarterback.
The Raiders have the rookie QB with all the eyes who should take over after Cousins stards 0-2, or 0-3.
The Dolphins and Cardinals just do not have the talent depth throughout to sustain anything long term and will be going with QB’s who have at least been around for a cup of coffee.
The Jets and Browns? Better. More confidence in the Browns by a mile.
But it’s the Titans who check all the boxes. Well, I am not big on their coach, but he has been a HC before and probably pairs well with the second box. And that is having a QB who can win games on his own and is a second year highly touted QB that was just meh in year one. Cam Ward and the Titans. Back them.
My full list of season long thoughts that I’ll be backing early for DFS/Bets until they flop
- Teams not as good as the public thinks: Bills, Colts, Commanders, Panthers
- Teams who are better than the public thinks: Titans, Cowboys, Chiefs (feels weird, but yes)
ABOUT THIS ARTICLE
As always I am not in the business of writing up a million plays each week. There’s endless content sources out there for that, some good, some bad, and now many will be AI-generated, some AI-assisted and others who actually know how to utilize the tools available to us to build good write-ups. Thus, go to the Dashboard and click on Analysis for the full slate breakdown which is not just plugging it into your friendly LLM and getting a write-up of slop. It’s being refined each week to expand analysis based on our model, the data, and external information as well — while testing its analysis results weekly to get better and better. Use that for full slate breakdowns.
Use this article for “MY” DFS and other plays of the week. Use them in DFS, props or general patting yourself at the local bar when something random hits.
STAT OF THE WEEK
I don’t have the EXACT numbers here, but it’s very close. Teams who’s Week 1 Quarterback played 0 snaps in pre-season are basically 4-16 ATS in the past few seasons in the first half of week 1 games. Most recently was Matthew Stafford on Thursday night. It leans into Quarterbacks & the passing game being a timing and rhythm connection & you really just cannot simulate game tempo and pace in practices or scrimmages.
The QB’s who played NO snaps in pre-season: Lawrence, Rodgers, Lamar, Jones, Shough, Goff, Hurts & Prescott
The QB’s who played the most snaps in pre-season: Watson, Ward, Cousins, Young, Love [All played two games]
WEATHER & NOTABLES
- Browns at Jags: Early heat in the season could come in play down in Jacksonville
- Although I do find FanDuel good for NFL because 0.5 PPR is better, I will be keeping all pricing focused on DraftKings where pricing decisions matter slightly more.
Once again, another season, another annual tradition of me reminding you that Quarterback doesn’t matter in DFS. 95% of the plays each week have a hard cap ceiling and with another year of non Super-Flex options, there’s just no reason to worry that much about ownership on Quarterbacks. You can just eat the chalk QB and be fine with it or you can pick the guy you feel is that chance of being the one guy who goes off that week at 2% owned. Either way, don’t over think Quarterback and in most cases, don’t over pay for Quarterback on DK.
CAM WARD ($5100)
In his last four full games a year ago Ward had 2 passing TD and was starting to just look better as the season finished up. Something you can expect from a rookie Quarterback. The big draw here is two fold. A Jets secondary still seeking for an INT and the addition of Carnell Tate to go along with other good weapons in WanDale Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Pollard and Gunnar Helm. Ward has options, he has more confidence and I’m buying into the Titans far more than the public.
REST OF THE FIELD
- Lamar Jackson ($6800) – The only pay up Quarterback that has my eye this week. I considered Burrow but think you get a good running game from the Bengals. Where as Lamar remains the Ravens early running game. Only issue is that he didn’t play a snap in pre-season and that’s usually not great for QB.
- Malik Willis ($5300)
Hardest position to pinpoint this week for me but one where I might try to lean into just picking two to avoid mistakes as WR and TE are both deep and should be where we fill the FLEX spot this week.
Omarion Hampton ($6800)
Hampton is someone I think is a ‘Core’ type play this week, meaning he wont hurt your lineup in any format but he also isn’t necessarily a sleeper enough to win the entire slate. The Chargers fit the mold here of the heavy home favorite that should remain balanced enough to get him the easy floor that his $6800 price needs.
Bhayshul Tuten ($5800)
Trevor fits in the didn’t play in pre-season mold & thus the rush game is where it’s at for Jacksonville. The new clear #1 in town should have a big game
ALSO LIKE …
- Chase Brown ($7100) – Slide here instead of Burrow & the passing game. The Bucs rush defense of old is not this years Bucs rush defense.
- Ashton Jeanty ($6600) – He’s fine.
MY RB FADE …
- Jahmyr Gibbs – This game is going under, so you can rule out doing a full stack here and there’s only one play on each side to focus in on. For me, I’ll flip the coin and probably be wrong 50% of the time, but the other 50% of the time, I’m right! So yeah, ASB over Gibbs this week.
GARRETT WILSON ($5800)
Did we forget how good Wilson was at the start of last season? A sub 6k guy who likely should see over 10 targets and a secondary that’s got no true CB1 that can take him out. I understand that the public will see a low total here but it’s one of the best picks today to take the over in a game that’s going to have plenty of fantasy points.
CHRIS OLAVE ($6700)
As a Saints fan I cannot help but try to point out that while Olave is 40% for good reason there’s also a prior connection with Vele and another sleeper in this WR room that can be considered for much better value. That said, the floor on Olave as long as he is on the field is always going to be tremendous & when in a dome environment with a defense like Detroits he should be perfectly fine. Oh, that sleeper guy? Barion Brown ($3000), know the name…
CARNELL TATE ($5300)
Could pair any of the WR with Cam Ward, but I’ll roll the dice here on the speedy rookie to make a big splash early.
ALSO LIKE …
- Nico Collins ($7000): The game nobody seems to be wanting to talk about is Buffalo and Joe Brady making his HC debut going into Houston. Obviously the defenses here draw some attention but I think the Buffalo shift from McDermott to Brady is going to hurt their defense even more which has a revamped secondary & likely going to be vulnerable to some early mistakes.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7500): I get the theory here, but I also think you see a balanced spread form the Lions today so you need 2 TD here. Which, isn’t out of the question.
- Devonta Smith ($6600): The only question is which direction the Eagles are going in the first quarter for his first drive touchdown.
- DK Metcalf ($5400)
GOOD VALUE
- Barion Brown, Caleb Douglas, Ja’Kobi Lane
FADES …
- Justin Jefferson
- Tre Tucker – Chalk
I hate what TE has become this week and not because there is a lack of quality plays. But the heavy chalk shifting to Michael Mayer really just flips it around because I’m not certain I have a strong case against him at the price other than you don’t need to punt TE due to value at other spots. There’s also the Elephant in the room this year in Kyle Pitts, who if Tua ever gets on the field is going to fit in well with him. But, that might not ever happen, so we can remain the original founders of the #NeverKylePitts fan club.
Colston Loveland ($5300)
You know who doesn’t suck? The Williams to Loveland connection. You’re over there like, hey, cool. No more Taysom Hill write-ups every week. Well, get ready to spell Colston every week fellas…
ALSO LIKE …
- Tyler Warren ($4900)
- Michael Mayer ($2900)
- Eagles ($3200): They’re gonna have five sacks, easily.
- Chargers ($3500): They might have five turnovers
- Titans ($3100): They might score
FAVORITE PLAYS
QB – Cam Ward
RB – Omarion Hampton
WR – Garrett Wilson
TE – Colston Loveland
SLEEPER STUDS
WR – Nico Collins – Houston Texans
RB – Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts [Would only use in game stack]
SLEEPER VALUE
WR – Barion Brown – New Orleans Saints – $3000
FAVORITE ALL IN GAME STACKS
All in game stacks in NFL are not the same as CFB or MLB or even NHL. So really this is just saying this is where you go for a 3 player stack with 1 run back…
- Ravens at Colts: Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Tyler Warren, Jonathan Taylor
- Bears at Panthers: Caleb Williams, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Jalen Coker
- Jets at Titans: Cam Ward, Carnell Tate, WanDale Robinson, Garrett Wilson and/or Breece Hall
- Bills at Texans
FAVORITE BETS
- Saints / Lions UNDER 49.5
- Bears -3
- Browns +8.5
- Dolphins ML