This game has not been played. Kickoff is Sunday. We played it 10,000 times anyway, and this is Sim #34.
JACKSONVILLE — For three quarters, Sim #34 belonged to the kicker on the wrong sideline. Philadelphia trailed 7-0 after Bhayshul Tuten punched in a 2-yard run on fourth-and-goal to open the scoring. Then the Eagles hung around on Dameon Pierce’s 34-yard touchdown run and the leg of their kicker. The extra point after Pierce’s run didn’t go through, so it stood 7-6. Then Trevor Lawrence threw two interceptions in barely four minutes of game clock, Philadelphia turned both into field goals, and the Jaguars went to the locker room down 12-10.
Jacksonville didn’t get the lead back until a third-quarter field goal made it 13-12. Philadelphia answered with a fourth field goal for a 15-13 lead. The Eagles had reached the Jacksonville 24 on that drive before a 16-yard sack shoved them back. That was a theme. Jalen Hurts went down five times in this sim, and the Eagles kept finishing drives with three points instead of seven.
Then Tuten took over. Facing fourth-and-2 at the Philadelphia 27, the Jaguars gave it to him and he went for 13 yards. On the next snap he ripped off 10 more. Chris Rodriguez Jr. finished it with a 1-yard plunge early in the fourth, 20-15. Philadelphia got as close as the 2-yard line on its next drive, stalled on third down and settled for a fourth field goal, 20-18. Tuten broke a 12-yarder to set up first-and-goal, and Lawrence scrambled in from 3 yards out with 8:10 left. The Eagles’ last real chance died on a fourth-and-10 scramble that went 2 yards. Final from Sim #34: Jaguars 27, Eagles 18. Tuten finished with 86 rushing yards and the touchdown that started it.
That was one game. We played 9,999 more.
The 10,000-game box score
Sim #34 was a near-perfect median game. Across all 10,000, Jacksonville averaged 26.8 points to Philadelphia’s 17.6 and won 78% of the time, with 3% going to overtime. The sims’ average margin is 9.2, a bit wider than the 7.5 Vegas is dealing. But the Jaguars cover that 7.5 in just 51% of the sims, so on the spread the sims see a coin flip, not a gap. Our sims don’t use the odds, and our stats-only projections haven’t beaten the closing line in backtests, so treat this as a second opinion and nothing more. The total is the other spot where the sims lean: 56% of them go over 41.5, with a median of 44.2 combined points.
Who keeps showing up
Jacksonville’s backfield owns the touchdown list. Tuten scored in 44% of the sims and Rodriguez in 36%. But the book’s -110 on Tuten works out to 52%, so the sims are well under the price on the guy everyone will click first. Rodriguez runs the other way: +340 works out to 24%, and he scored in 36% of the sims. Parker Washington (33% in the sims vs. 41% at +145) is another favorite the sims find too short. Will Shipley is the biggest drop on the Philadelphia side: priced at 25%, he scored in 21% of the sims.
The touches
Tuten is getting 12.65 carries a game in these sims, the Eagles’ targets are spread thin across Dontayvion Wicks, Dallas Goedert and Makai Lemon, and Hurts (8.25 carries) runs nearly as often as Will Shipley (8.98).
Numbers that jumped off the tape
- Jacksonville wins by 10 or more in 47% of the sims. Philadelphia wins by 10 or more in 6%.
- The Eagles are held under 14 points in 38% of the sims. The Jaguars hang 30 or more in 36%.
- It’s a one-score game at the final gun in 44% of the sims, and a 21-point blowout in 19%.
- The total gets to 50 in 33% of the sims and stays under 35 in 24%.
- Tuten runs for 75 or more yards in 30% of the sims and 100 or more in 13%. He scores twice in 13%.
- Tuten is the most likely first touchdown scorer, at 13%. Rodriguez is next at 9%.
- Goedert catches 8 or more passes in 16% of the sims.
- Hurts throws two or more interceptions in 17% of the sims.
The Bureau’s read
Paulie has two plays here. His best bet of the week is Goedert Under 4.5 receptions at -124: his model gives it 72%, citing Philadelphia as a 7.5-point road dog and a recent dip in snap share. The Sim Desk sims are less sure. They have Goedert with a median of 5 catches on 7.24 targets, which puts the over in play much more often than Paulie’s number does. That’s a real disagreement, and it’s Paulie’s money, not ours. His second play is a small one: Rodriguez anytime TD at +340. He makes it 31% against the book’s 24%, and here the sims agree, scoring Rodriguez in 36% of games. Paulie also tagged Tuten, Shipley, Lemon and Darius Cooper as “role change” and made no call. They’re priced like starters while his numbers still reflect their old jobs. He passed hard on Washington at +145: “the public’s favorite TD at a tax.”
Mitch has Jacksonville ML at -235 at a book that hasn’t moved; he devigs the market to 72.5% and makes no forecast of his own. Bud has Over 42.5 at +104, also a stale-price play on a 50% market number. Vince has nothing on this game.
Marty Mulligan, Sim Desk. Ten thousand games in, and Jacksonville still wins about three of every four. See you at kickoff.