This game has not been played. Kickoff is Thursday night. What follows is Sim #20 of the 10,000 times we played Tampa Bay at Dallas on our play-by-play engine, picked because it lands right on the median score.
The recap: Cowboys 28, Buccaneers 20 (Sim #20 of 10,000)
ARLINGTON, Texas (simulated): Dallas built a big lead, gave nearly all of it back, then let Javonte Williams finish it. His 7-yard touchdown run on third-and-goal with 6:55 left made it 28-20, and the Cowboys ran out the clock from there.
Tampa Bay got on the board first with a field goal on its opening drive. Dallas answered right away: Javonte Williams ripped off 15 yards, George Pickens turned a second-and-21 into a 21-yard gain, and Dak Prescott found Jake Ferguson for a 5-yard score on third-and-goal. With 45 seconds left in the first quarter, Prescott hit CeeDee Lamb on first down from his own 30 and Lamb took it 70 yards to the house. 14-3.
The second quarter was one long Dallas drive. The Cowboys went 87 yards, Williams got stuffed twice at the 1, and Prescott kept it himself on third down. Tampa missed a field goal on its next trip, and it was 21-3 at the half. Over.
Not over. Jalon Daniels found Emeka Egbuka for 29 yards, took a sack, then dumped it to Bucky Irving for an 8-yard touchdown on third-and-goal. On the very next snap Prescott threw an interception targeting Ferguson. Four plays later, Irving punched in a 5-yarder: 21-17. Tampa’s next drive was all Irving (runs of 11, 18 and a 12-yard pickup on third-and-6), and a field goal early in the fourth cut it to 21-20.
Then Dallas went back to the air. Ferguson for 17, Pickens for 30, Pickens for 31 to the Tampa 5, and three Williams carries later the Cowboys had their eight-point cushion. Ferguson caught a 22-yarder on third-and-18 to ice it, and Prescott took three knees.
That was one game. We played 9,999 more.
The 10,000-game box score
Dallas averaged 27.96 points to Tampa’s 19.73, won 74.9% of the time, covered 8.5 in 45.7% and went over 47.5 in 49.6%. That’s the market’s own game played back to you, not a pick: the engine is tuned to the implied team totals, so a coin flip on the spread and total is exactly what it should say.
Who keeps showing up
This is the part of the sims that earns its keep. The two Dallas receivers everyone wants are priced well past what they did in 10,000 games: Pickens scored in 31.5% of sims against the 46.5% his +115 implies, and Lamb in 41.5% against 52.4% at -110. Javonte Williams scored in 62.2% of games, the most on the field by a mile, but -210 asks for 67.7%. The quiet gap runs the other way: backup Tyler Goodson found the end zone in 23.6% of sims at a +650 price that implies 13.3%. Nobody at the Bureau bets him, so file it as color.
The touches
Williams and Irving carry the load almost identically, about 14 to 15 carries apiece, while Lamb draws 8.08 targets a game and nobody on Tampa’s side tops 6.67.
Numbers that jumped off the tape
- Dallas scored 30 or more in 41.1% of games. Tampa did it in 13.4%.
- Tampa was held under 14 points in 28.2% of sims.
- It was a one-score game at the final gun 46.0% of the time, a 21-point blowout 18.0% of the time, and it went to overtime in 3.8%.
- Dallas won by 10 or more in 43.9% of games. Tampa won by 10 or more in 6.8%.
- Javonte Williams scored twice in 25.7% of sims and ran for 100 yards in 19.6%.
- Lamb cleared 100 receiving yards in 26.9% of games; he scored the game’s first touchdown in 10.4%, behind Williams at 19.3%.
- Daniels threw two or more interceptions in 16.7% of sims. Prescott threw three or more touchdowns in 22.0%.
The Bureau’s read
Paulie has two plays here. His best bet is Cade Otton Under 3.5 receptions at -129, with his model at 66%. The sims push back a little: Otton’s median is 4 catches. But receptions are exactly where the sims haven’t beaten the market, so that’s a shrug, not a fade. His second is Bucky Irving anytime TD at +195, at 40.2% for him. Here the sims carry weight, and they’re on the right side, barely: Irving scored in 36.9% of games, a hair over the 35.1% that today’s +185 implies. Paulie’s TD sheet otherwise reads like ours: “DON’T LIKE” on Williams, Lamb, Pickens, Ferguson and Egbuka, all of whom the sims also have below their prices.
Mitch has Tampa Bay moneyline at +450 at one book that hasn’t moved, against a 21.5% devigged market number. The sims have Tampa winning 25.1% of the time, but don’t read that as backup: underdogs win a touch more in the sims because of game-to-game randomness. Mitch’s case is the stale price, full stop. Vince and Bud have nothing on the spread or total, which squares with a 45.7% cover and a 49.6% over.
Showdown Ace has already published his Thursday card, and three desks overlap on it:
Read Showdown Ace’s full write-up: Thursday Night Showdown: Buccaneers at Cowboys
On Irving, all three desks agree he’s worth more than his price: Paulie’s TD book at 40.2%, Showdown Ace’s model at 39.1% (his DFS matchup sim had him near 48%), and the Sim Desk sims at a more modest 36.9%. Showdown Ace bets him at +180 and Otton’s anytime TD at +550 (his model 18.0%, the Sim Desk sims 16.5%, the price 15.4%). He passes on Paulie’s Otton Under. His Lamb captain is a fantasy-points and ownership call, not a touchdown bet, and he passes on Lamb’s TD for the same reason Paulie does: his model has Lamb at 28.8% against a 51.2% price, Paulie’s at 44.2%, the Sim Desk sims at 41.5%.
Ten thousand games in, and I still don’t know who wins Thursday. But I know who keeps getting into the end zone. Marty Mulligan, Sim Desk, signing off.