Arnold Palmer Invitational
Another early lock this week. We stay in Florida and move on to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Bay Hill is a longer course than last week, but it’s also a Par 72. There are plenty of hazards and I’ve seen reports that the rough is long and thick so accuracy will be a good thing. Key factors this week:
- Shots Gained Off-the-Tee
- Driving Accuracy (Part of SG-OTT)
- Scrambling
- Par 5 Scoring
The Varsity Team has also returned to this tournament. I’m not putting down any of the guys that play on the Tour by saying this. Hell, they could all give me a shot a hole and still beat me by double-digits. I’m just saying that you are seeing more of the top players in world rankings playing here. It’s two-fold I think. One, it’s Arnie’s Tournament and two, it’s the week before The Players. Plus, being an Invitational, only 120 players are invited and, that’s usually the big guns.
There has already been a withdrawal. Bryson DeChambeau thought he would play, but decided against it. With a wrist injury, I can see him wanting to avoid this rough to make sure he was healthy for next week’s “Fifth” Major.
On a side note, we had the winner and the 2nd place finisher in the write-up last week. Let me know on Discord how you all do. The feedback helps in case I’m missing something you’d like to see.
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. Like last week, the format will be:
- Each Thousand Dollar price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two “Cores”
- Top 10 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
Just like every week, I’m in a little bit of a conundrum on how to proceed in this top tier. I like several of the guys, including Jon Rahm ($11,400), but much like last week, I hesitate spending up knowing I need a Top 5 or Top 10 from those guys to pay off in value. Fading Sungjae Im ($9,900 this week) last week turned out to be an excellent call since he missed the cut as the highest-valued golfer on DraftKings. I’m leaning in the same direction this week although the players in the mid to lower-tiers should be higher quality this week given it’s a limited field.
All but twenty players are $8,000 or below this week. With that being said, I’m a gut-call player a lot of the times so what’s it saying this week?
- Will Zalatoris ($9,400) – I’m thinking this guy will be one of my “go to” picks this season and for years to come unless something crazy happens like a Jordan Spieth breakdown. (Kudos to Jordan though as he appears to have worked it out). Zalatoris finished T10 here in his only appearance. Except for a COVID delay his play this year has also been phenomenal – T26-2nd-T6 in his last three. The greens are Bermuda grass this week and he’s gaining almost ½ a stroke putting on that grass.
- Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – Rory’s CH here is excellent. His worst finish since 2015 is a T27. In his last five years at this tournament – all Top 10s. I’m taking the course experience here over Rahm given there are only five guys over $10K
Dew Sweepers:
- Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – I usually hate giving you multiple guys over $10K, but for some reason I’m thinking Viktor improves over his prior years’ 40th-50th place finishes in a BIG WAY. He’s just playing too well to ignore at this point.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,200) – I like European Tour players when there is a chance for unpredictable winds. I was also extremely high on him before he withdrew a few weeks ago with an illness. He’s also “Rory-esque” at Bay Hill with three straight Top 10s.
NOTE: This sounds like a cop out, I know, but I wouldn’t really “ignore” any of the players in this category. Other than Rahm having no experience here and Adam Scott and Marc Leishman missing the cut in their most recent appearances, all the guys have decent records here and have nice Current Form.
$8,000 to $8,900
As I said above, there aren’t many players in these top two tiers due to the limited field and the DraftKings and FanDuel algorithms having to price the field accordingly. I think the “meat” will be in the lower tiers if we want to make a move.
- Keith Mitchell ($8,100) – Few players are playing as consistently as he is right now. His worst finish in his last five events – outside of one MC – is a tie for 12th.
- Paul Casey ($8,300) – Another European play, but not with out merit. He’s only played here three time since 2016, but two of those are Top 10s. In limited appearances this year, he’s been Top 15 both times. $8,300 for a Top 15? Yep!
Dew Sweepers:
- Russell Henley ($8,500) – Not much play here in recent years. By that, I mean he hasn’t played here since 2017. However, being the Current Form guy that I am, he has not finished lower than 33rd in the last twelve weeks.
- Billy Horschel ($8,900) – I only put him last because he’s my highest-priced pick in this tier. He’s been Top 20 in all four events played in the last 3 months. He had also made every cut here before missing it last year. However, he’s playing so well right now and confidence is good!
$7,000 to $7,900
These lower tiers are loaded with players and some prices that make it hard to pass on certain guys.
- Tommy Fleetwood ($7,900) – Yes, this pick bombed last week as he staggered home on the back nine on Friday to miss the cut by one shot. However, he’s $1,100 cheaper this week and is still one of the best players in the game. When he goes low, he can go really low! Really low means lots of DFS points. Plus, his CH here isn’t bad either – T10-MC-T3-T26-T10!
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700) – About the same price as last week. He’s $300 cheaper and has finished Top 20 in both attempts at Bay Hill with a 7th place finish in 2021.
Dew Sweepers:
- Lanto Griffin ($7,100) – He’s off to a great start this season. He’s also been Top 40 in both tours of Bay Hill. I’m really liking his CF and the price is nice.
- Justin Rose ($7,700) – I’m not bringing any statistics or guts to this pick, just common sense. Justin Rose at this price? C’mon! His last two trips here have been bad with a WD and a MC, but I just can’t pass on this price.
$7,000 and Under
More than half the field falls in this range! That sounds like a lot, but most of these guys aren’t going to be part of your team anyway unless you leave yourself $6,200 or less for your last spot, or two, or three if you’re really going crazy.
- Adam Svensson ($6,700) – I liked his performance last week. He proved he can play in the Florida winds on a very tough course. He’s also made all five cuts in his last five events.
- Garrick Higgo ($6,700) – I like the European players when the winds are unpredictable. He’s also made his last three cuts.
LONGSHOT:
- Danny Willett ($6,400) – He has a T31 and a T18 in his last two trips here. I’m seeing him as a guy that won’t be on too many people’s radar and this past Masters champ is capable of a good performance.
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Rory McIlroy
Will Zalatoris
Tommy Fleetwood
(Leaves you $7,200 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Billy Horschel
Keith Mitchell
(Leaves you $7,933 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 15 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:
- Rory McIlroy
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Scottie Scheffler
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Viktor Hovland
- Paul Casey
- Jason Kokrak
- Jon Rahm
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Marc Leishman
- Keith Mitchell
- Sungjae Im
- Max Homa
- Will Zalatoris
- Cameron Tringale
Optimizer Suggestion: Load the names in this article (not the Top 15) into the optimizer and see what you get. Or, in the alternative, lock in 3 or 4 and the let the optimizer fill out your lineup.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!